Dividends and buybacks both indicate that the company is willing to return cash to shareholders. One big difference is that dividends are typically a long-term

Dividends and buybacks both indicate that the company is willing to return cash to shareholders. One big difference is that dividends are typically a long-term commitment to returning cash (unless it's a "special dividend"), whereas buybacks are more ad-hoc. The other difference is that buybacks imply an opinion that the stock is undervalued, whereas dividends are agnostic about valuation. In most cases, buybacks seem to be motivated by the former difference more than the latter. However, some companies like Berkshire are more principled about valuation driving buyback decisions. I would disagree with your point about stock issuance suggesting belief in the company. Issuing stock is usually a negative signal that not only is your company struggling with cash flow, but it can't issue debt at a reasonable cost. (Startups issue equity because it is difficult to borrow at such a risky stage of the company, but more established companies like Tesla issuing equity is usually a sign of difficulties with cash flow.) Read up on cost of equity vs cost of debt for more info.