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The interface between "ignorance is no excuse" and the vagueness and selective enforcement of a great deal of law is always a difficult gray area. I think that

The interface between "ignorance is no excuse" and the vagueness and selective enforcement of a great deal of law is always a difficult gray area. I think that the most important thing about a political system is predictability, not "democracy" or "justice" or some other vague, high minded ideal. The number one job of our elected and appointed officials should be providing this predictability. This is a particularly stark example of what happens when that duty is shirked. Corruption and incompetence flow into every crevice not solidly plugged with deterministic law.

InclinedPlane 16y ago
I have to disagree. Predictability is quite important, but often the most brutal regimes are the most predictable, and that's not something I want. I don't want to know for sure, unquestionably that if I speak out against the government me and my family will be fed into a wood chipper, no matter how predictable that response would be.
- uriel 16y ago
  > but often the most brutal regimes are the most predictable I'm not so sure, not saying there not might be some cases of this, but usually brutal regimes exercise force arbitrarily. Predictability implies a set of constraints on the actions of those in power.
- joe_the_user 16y ago
  Predictability is quite important, but often the most brutal regimes are the most predictable, and that's not something I want. I agree that a predictable rule of law isn't enough for a worthwhile society. At the same time, it's worth noting that many repressive regimes are very unpredictable. Look at Saddam Hussein's Iraq or Stalin's Russia; Unpredictable terror is an important weapon in a dictator's arsenal. It forces people to go beyond the normal call of duty in defense of the state. It produces something like "learned helplessness" in the population. It prevents rivals from acting against the leader.
- khafra 16y ago
  Intermittent reinforcement is the most effective form of operant conditioning. Unpredictable punishments in a wide gray area will make people stay well clear of even the shallow end of that gray area.
  - aphyr 16y ago
    ...which is why nobody speeds.
    - pyre 16y ago
      They don't 'disappear' you or send you to the torture chamber for going over the speed limit. They do send you away for speaking out against the leader.
    - khafra 16y ago
      You make a great argument, and I've been thinking about it, because I know intermittent reinforcement/operant conditioning has extremely strong evidence in its favor. A HN comment from today[1] brought the problem to my mind again, but this time with a possible solution. At their roots, operant conditioning and classical conditioning are both learning mechanisms. Since the time of operant conditioning, spaced repetition[2] has gained a lot of popularity. It's a further refinement that depends on beginning with short intervals, and proceeding to longer ones. The idea this suggests to me is that speeding tickets happen to many people infrequently enough that the enhanced learning never takes place. Draconian crackdowns, however, happen frequently and with high salience because of media coverage--the only time you know about someone else getting a speeding ticket is when you see them pulled over, and it's hard to feel as personally involved with that as when you hear all the details of someone's arrest and imprisonment on the news. One piece of evidence for media coverage changing behavior is that people buy lottery tickets; because they've seen lottery winners on the news, the probability of winning has a much higher salience than it deserves. [1]http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2030038 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2030038 [2]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaced_repetition http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaced_repetition
      - 16y ago
joe_the_user 16y ago
"Predictability" is more or less what's meant by "the rule of law". It's generally considered important.
- eru 16y ago
  Yes. Though the `more or less' is important. There are numerous discussion about what `rule of law' really means.

InclinedPlane 16y ago

I have to disagree. Predictability is quite important, but often the most brutal regimes are the most predictable, and that's not something I want. I don't want to know for sure, unquestionably that if I speak out against the government me and my family will be fed into a wood chipper, no matter how predictable that response would be.

uriel 16y ago
> but often the most brutal regimes are the most predictable I'm not so sure, not saying there not might be some cases of this, but usually brutal regimes exercise force arbitrarily. Predictability implies a set of constraints on the actions of those in power.
joe_the_user 16y ago
Predictability is quite important, but often the most brutal regimes are the most predictable, and that's not something I want. I agree that a predictable rule of law isn't enough for a worthwhile society. At the same time, it's worth noting that many repressive regimes are very unpredictable. Look at Saddam Hussein's Iraq or Stalin's Russia; Unpredictable terror is an important weapon in a dictator's arsenal. It forces people to go beyond the normal call of duty in defense of the state. It produces something like "learned helplessness" in the population. It prevents rivals from acting against the leader.
khafra 16y ago
Intermittent reinforcement is the most effective form of operant conditioning. Unpredictable punishments in a wide gray area will make people stay well clear of even the shallow end of that gray area.
- aphyr 16y ago
  ...which is why nobody speeds.
  - pyre 16y ago
    They don't 'disappear' you or send you to the torture chamber for going over the speed limit. They do send you away for speaking out against the leader.
  - khafra 16y ago
    You make a great argument, and I've been thinking about it, because I know intermittent reinforcement/operant conditioning has extremely strong evidence in its favor. A HN comment from today[1] brought the problem to my mind again, but this time with a possible solution. At their roots, operant conditioning and classical conditioning are both learning mechanisms. Since the time of operant conditioning, spaced repetition[2] has gained a lot of popularity. It's a further refinement that depends on beginning with short intervals, and proceeding to longer ones. The idea this suggests to me is that speeding tickets happen to many people infrequently enough that the enhanced learning never takes place. Draconian crackdowns, however, happen frequently and with high salience because of media coverage--the only time you know about someone else getting a speeding ticket is when you see them pulled over, and it's hard to feel as personally involved with that as when you hear all the details of someone's arrest and imprisonment on the news. One piece of evidence for media coverage changing behavior is that people buy lottery tickets; because they've seen lottery winners on the news, the probability of winning has a much higher salience than it deserves. [1]http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2030038 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2030038 [2]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaced_repetition http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaced_repetition
    - 16y ago

joe_the_user 16y ago

"Predictability" is more or less what's meant by "the rule of law". It's generally considered important.

eru 16y ago
Yes. Though the `more or less' is important. There are numerous discussion about what `rule of law' really means.