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This is ominous for Apple as well, being the poster child of American industry. China could retaliate by disrupting Apple's supply chain, but I don't think it

This is ominous for Apple as well, being the poster child of American industry. China could retaliate by disrupting Apple's supply chain, but I don't think it will happen as it would put a huge question mark over China as a component supplier for every single industry.

adventured 7y ago
It's not ominous at all. China can't retaliate in that manner if they want Huawei to remain a functioning business. The US controls nearly all aspects of the global technology industry. It can rather smash Huawei any time it chooses to, ZTE style, by entirely revoking Huawei's access to critical components (and a lot of markets). Without China, Apple remains the most profitable company on earth and can safely, entirely abandon China. Taiwan I'll note is not China. Huawei on the other hand can't survive as is without US technology. They'd lose at least 3/4 of their business and most likely end up in bankruptcy.
- dingaling 7y ago
  You're about a decade behind the curve. Huawei already has its own Kirin mobile SoC. There are no critical components that the USA can lock-down. > Taiwan I'll note is not China. Assuming you are referring to.Foxconn, their HQ is on Taiwan but the assembly lines are on the mainland.
- greatpatton 7y ago
  Can you please tell us which part of US technology Huawei will need at all costs? CPU? Based on a European company design Memory? Chinese and Asian companies already in charge of most of this market Modem? They have their own design OS? They are already using open source Android without Google technology for Chinese use Screen? Same local and other asian sources dominate this world etc. No the only way, US can impact these company is by preventing them to trade with the rest of the world. But after ZTE, this will be seen as full war by China, and the global economic impact of this will make 2008 looks like a great year for the economy.
- fauigerzigerk 7y ago
  >Taiwan I'll note is not China. And I'll note that headquarters are not the same as supply chains. Much of what Apple sells all over the world is made in China (PRC). There's little doubt that both the US and China are capable of massively disrupting each other's tech industries in the short term. But as I said, the incentives not to do that are overwhelming. Let's just hope the tit for tat doesn't get out of hand.
praveenweb 7y ago
Apple is also slowly building a backup supply chain in India to handle such retaliation by China.
ddebernardy 7y ago
Apple moving its supply chain out of China (and back to the US) is exactly what Trump wants. If only for political reasons and self-interest, there's just no way China would retaliate how you suggest.
- fauigerzigerk 7y ago
  As I said, I do _not_ think that China will retaliate in this way. But I worry that things could get out of hand if emotions take over. Trump's emotions are on display for everyone to see, but I think the US administration and maybe even Trump himself are more aware of the trade-offs than they're letting on. In China, I believe, it's the other way around. The regime likes to appear rational and unemotional, but I think they are struggling hugely to keep more aggressive nationalist sentiment at bay. There's a danger that face saving and responding "adequately" to perceived national humiliation could take on a dynamic of its own. This is the stuff that wars are made of - real wars, not just trade wars.
- rchaud 7y ago
  If all it took was the threat of tariffs to bring Apple's manufacturing back to the US, I seriously doubt the Trump admin would have been the first to think of it. Apple might move parts of their supply chain to places like Vietnam or India, but definitely not back Stateside.

adventured 7y ago

It's not ominous at all. China can't retaliate in that manner if they want Huawei to remain a functioning business. The US controls nearly all aspects of the global technology industry. It can rather smash Huawei any time it chooses to, ZTE style, by entirely revoking Huawei's access to critical components (and a lot of markets). Without China, Apple remains the most profitable company on earth and can safely, entirely abandon China. Taiwan I'll note is not China. Huawei on the other hand can't survive as is without US technology. They'd lose at least 3/4 of their business and most likely end up in bankruptcy.

dingaling 7y ago
You're about a decade behind the curve. Huawei already has its own Kirin mobile SoC. There are no critical components that the USA can lock-down. > Taiwan I'll note is not China. Assuming you are referring to.Foxconn, their HQ is on Taiwan but the assembly lines are on the mainland.
greatpatton 7y ago
Can you please tell us which part of US technology Huawei will need at all costs? CPU? Based on a European company design Memory? Chinese and Asian companies already in charge of most of this market Modem? They have their own design OS? They are already using open source Android without Google technology for Chinese use Screen? Same local and other asian sources dominate this world etc. No the only way, US can impact these company is by preventing them to trade with the rest of the world. But after ZTE, this will be seen as full war by China, and the global economic impact of this will make 2008 looks like a great year for the economy.
fauigerzigerk 7y ago
>Taiwan I'll note is not China. And I'll note that headquarters are not the same as supply chains. Much of what Apple sells all over the world is made in China (PRC). There's little doubt that both the US and China are capable of massively disrupting each other's tech industries in the short term. But as I said, the incentives not to do that are overwhelming. Let's just hope the tit for tat doesn't get out of hand.

praveenweb 7y ago

Apple is also slowly building a backup supply chain in India to handle such retaliation by China.

ddebernardy 7y ago

Apple moving its supply chain out of China (and back to the US) is exactly what Trump wants. If only for political reasons and self-interest, there's just no way China would retaliate how you suggest.

fauigerzigerk 7y ago
As I said, I do _not_ think that China will retaliate in this way. But I worry that things could get out of hand if emotions take over. Trump's emotions are on display for everyone to see, but I think the US administration and maybe even Trump himself are more aware of the trade-offs than they're letting on. In China, I believe, it's the other way around. The regime likes to appear rational and unemotional, but I think they are struggling hugely to keep more aggressive nationalist sentiment at bay. There's a danger that face saving and responding "adequately" to perceived national humiliation could take on a dynamic of its own. This is the stuff that wars are made of - real wars, not just trade wars.
rchaud 7y ago
If all it took was the threat of tariffs to bring Apple's manufacturing back to the US, I seriously doubt the Trump admin would have been the first to think of it. Apple might move parts of their supply chain to places like Vietnam or India, but definitely not back Stateside.