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>it is hard for me to imagine it will take almost 20 years You are drastically over-estimating the propensity for change of the majority of the population. In

by yholio 7y ago

>it is hard for me to imagine it will take almost 20 years You are drastically over-estimating the propensity for change of the majority of the population. In Europe we have diesel versus gasoline wars with supporters of each side declaring that the other is pure crap. The idea these people would just run the numbers, see that electric is more efficient and go to the dealers to pickup an electric car is funny. We aren't even in the first phases of consumer adoption, we haven't seen the first waves of cheap knock-offs that try to capitalize on the trend and possibly set the public expectations about electrics to low levels. What we have is an american tech startup building a highly advanced and expensive car, and the major manufacturers hedging their bets and announcing electric models to make sure they are not caught off guard.

TomMarius 7y ago
From my "experience" (if you can say that about this) the fuel that wins pub debates is always the currently cheaper one - one day electric cars will start winning significantly, with no downsides they have today.
nutjob2 7y ago
Today's "highly advanced and expensive car" is tomorrow's cheap knock off. The sunk costs have been made by the Teslas of this world and economy of scale is about to deliver its magic. It's ironic reading something like this on a technology website, an industry where scale and rapid development have delivered astounding value. Cars are just the latest product to be gobbled up by the same hyper-efficient industry. My prediction is the car industry will look like the PC industry in the future. Complicated drive trains have been replaced by simple motors close to the wheel. You don't have to architect a car around them anymore. Scaling will produce more generic and interchangeable parts at much better prices. Soon we'll be talking about our latest build, but it will be a car, not a computer. This has already started with enthusiasts transplanting reclaimed Tesla innards into other shells: https://youtu.be/o-7b1waoj9Q?t=291 https://youtu.be/o-7b1waoj9Q?t=291
- semi-extrinsic 7y ago
  It's also ironic reading on technology websites how important everyone thinks the engine is in a car. While in fact engines are the least specialized and least failure-prone part of a modern car. Your link to people transplanting Tesla innards into other shells: people have done this since the 1930s. Back then it was called a Hot Rod, today aftermarket parts in the US alone is a $300+ billion industry.
NeedMoreTea 7y ago
I think you are drastically under-estimating it. Diesel's growth for private vehicles here in Europe came about purely from changed incentives, and changed sales rates almost immediately. That's for a switch to an alternative with all the refuelling and associated infrastructure already in place. As electric infrastructure - and crucially vehicle choice - continues to expand, with comparable incentives there's no reason it couldn't achieve as significant a switch in similar time. For most it's the car that makes the sale, not the fuel or number of cylinders. It's my most petrol-headed friends who also seem to have become the most enthusiastic about EVs.
Arnt 7y ago
There's something you overlook: Electric cars aren't so damned noisy. In a few years, lots of people will have experience with that and some of them will want to get the damned noisy traffic out of their neighbourhood. Assuming that you want a diesel, do you still want it if you don't know whether you'll be permitted to drive that thing in the place where you want to go on vacation?

by yholio 7y ago

TomMarius 7y ago

From my "experience" (if you can say that about this) the fuel that wins pub debates is always the currently cheaper one - one day electric cars will start winning significantly, with no downsides they have today.

nutjob2 7y ago

Today's "highly advanced and expensive car" is tomorrow's cheap knock off. The sunk costs have been made by the Teslas of this world and economy of scale is about to deliver its magic. It's ironic reading something like this on a technology website, an industry where scale and rapid development have delivered astounding value. Cars are just the latest product to be gobbled up by the same hyper-efficient industry. My prediction is the car industry will look like the PC industry in the future. Complicated drive trains have been replaced by simple motors close to the wheel. You don't have to architect a car around them anymore. Scaling will produce more generic and interchangeable parts at much better prices. Soon we'll be talking about our latest build, but it will be a car, not a computer. This has already started with enthusiasts transplanting reclaimed Tesla innards into other shells: https://youtu.be/o-7b1waoj9Q?t=291 https://youtu.be/o-7b1waoj9Q?t=291

semi-extrinsic 7y ago
It's also ironic reading on technology websites how important everyone thinks the engine is in a car. While in fact engines are the least specialized and least failure-prone part of a modern car. Your link to people transplanting Tesla innards into other shells: people have done this since the 1930s. Back then it was called a Hot Rod, today aftermarket parts in the US alone is a $300+ billion industry.

NeedMoreTea 7y ago

I think you are drastically under-estimating it. Diesel's growth for private vehicles here in Europe came about purely from changed incentives, and changed sales rates almost immediately. That's for a switch to an alternative with all the refuelling and associated infrastructure already in place. As electric infrastructure - and crucially vehicle choice - continues to expand, with comparable incentives there's no reason it couldn't achieve as significant a switch in similar time. For most it's the car that makes the sale, not the fuel or number of cylinders. It's my most petrol-headed friends who also seem to have become the most enthusiastic about EVs.

Arnt 7y ago

There's something you overlook: Electric cars aren't so damned noisy. In a few years, lots of people will have experience with that and some of them will want to get the damned noisy traffic out of their neighbourhood. Assuming that you want a diesel, do you still want it if you don't know whether you'll be permitted to drive that thing in the place where you want to go on vacation?