4 ms·

To be fair, the current competition is largely a reaction to Tesla's accomplishments.

by asaph 7y ago

rayiner 7y ago
I question that CW. If that were true, the competitors would be making sporty sedans like Tesla. But almost none are. The competitors—the Bolt, Kona, etc., are all totally different form factors. The alternative, potentially better, theory is that everyone is reacting to the same incentives and market structures. Governments are pushing electric vehicles through subsidies and mandates. Meanwhile, exploding use of portable electronics has led to massive improvements lithium ion battery technology. Tesla has targeted a flashy niche market, expensive sports sedans, but has largely avoided trying to compete in the markets where the sales really are: crossovers and SUVs. (Every year, Toyota sells as many RAV4s as all the vehicles Tesla has ever sold.)
- Retric 7y ago
  Their are plenty of cars like Aston Martin Rapid E, Mercedes-Benz EQC, Audi E-Tron, and Jaguar I-Pace aiming up market. Tesla is maintaining a brand halo by keeping a reasonable minimum range, but the base Model 3 is relatively inexpensive compared to many competitors.
- trimbo 7y ago
  > Governments are pushing electric vehicles through subsidies and mandates Specifically, isn't this because of CAFE[1]? Gas mileage compliance is calculated per manufacturer. So BMW can keep selling 17mpg M3s as long as they're selling enough of those i3s[2] [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_econom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_econom [2] - Which sell for $50K but are like $15K used!
  - yboris 7y ago
    Thanks for sharing the i3 used cost tidbit! Can confirm -- just found a 2015 one with only 40,000 miles for about $15,000 https://www.carfax.com/vehicle/WBY1Z4C58FV502306 https://www.carfax.com/vehicle/WBY1Z4C58FV502306 Any comment on whether it's a car that would last to 150,000 miles? I see a warranty of "guaranteed at least 70% capacity for 8 years or 100,000 miles".
  - eropple 7y ago
    You can find an i3 for $15K used? Where? Carfax has like $24K at minimum for a 2017. Edit: NM, had to widen my search params. I dunno if I'd want to trust a 2015 electric car, though. ;)
    - trimbo 7y ago
      FWIW there were at least 2 <$20K at my local dealer when I checked it out in the winter or fall. Maybe people have caught onto the cheap i3 thing.
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  The Model 3 and even the X can barely be considered expensive sport sedans. The first is a low end lux compact, the second is an expensive SUV or crossover. Only the model S is in that category. In Beijing, I saw a lot of Model S’s on the road in the year before I left. These people would have been driving Audi A5+ or an S-class if it wasn’t for Beijing’s plate lottery (you can get a car quicker if it’s an EV). As far as that goes, the Model S is a good strategy outside of the USA where people aren’t so SUV crazed.
soup10 7y ago
The domestic oil boom and the fact that we are now a net exporter of oil makes the transition to electric cars less urgent.
- atq2119 7y ago
  This ignores the fact that EVs are currently the only viable path towards road-based transport that is compatible with the continued existence of our species. The transition isn't urgent due to oil prices. It's urgent due to greenhouse gases making the planet inhospitable for humans.
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    Maybe less urgent now? And let’s not forget many other countries with 2030 commitments to going pure EV.
  - ummonk 7y ago
    You seem to have a very low opinion of human adaptability to varying climates.
    - newnewpdro 7y ago
      If a bulk of the species living on the planet collapse from climate change, humans will not be having a good time.
  - barney54 7y ago
    There are also fuel cell vehicles such as the Honda Clarity, Toyota Mirai, and Hyundai Nexo.
    - moneytide1 7y ago
      Musk has said that hydrogen is foolish. I can understand that angle, because the concussive blast from compressed hydrogen ignition would be more dangerous than a lithium fire. But a hydrogen economy feels like it could work when scaled up. Somehow it feels practical as the most abundant element in the universe, with high energy density. Lithium/cobalt reserves are limited, though recycling measures might could solve that problem. Platinum-group element coated electrodes powered by ~25 year life spans of cadmium/tellurium solar cells (or Perovskite, and many others I'm sure, but Cd/Te is the one I've deployed en masse personally) would allow for low maintenance hydrogen generation and a shift away from natural gas sourcing. Nafion is necessary for the fuel cells themselves but I'm not sure about the production process behind that.
windexh8er 7y ago
This is my foundational fear of losing Tesla. Love them or hate them if they were to sink I feel the large drive to compete with them goes away and we go back to business as usual burning dead dinosaurs. While Tesla isn't perfect by any stretch I do think they continue to be very important to the overall market progression and higher expectations of auto manufacturers.
- jjeaff 7y ago
  Is there really a large drive to compete with them? So far they have proven that unit profitability is difficult if not impossible with current tech. And meanwhile, Ford is selling a quarter million F-150 trucks every quarter compared to Teslas total units per quarter around 40k. I don't think the big automakers are worried yet.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - windexh8er 7y ago
    There is. Buyers of an F150 are not buyers of any Tesla product. Ford just invested heavily in Rivian [0]. That's Tesla's backyard for sure and is a departure from those buyers of the F150. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/24/business/ford-rivian-investment.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/24/business/ford-rivian-inve... While maybe not "worried" Ford sees a risk.
Barrin92 7y ago
Self driving and electric cars have been in development for a long time. Mercedes Benz in the 1980s was testing automated driving on empty streets in Munich. The difference between Tesla and others isn't that Tesla somehow was the first to come up with these ideas, they were the first to attempt to run a car company like a startup and marketing themselves as a disruptor. Which in a sense is true because it brought the products to the forefront, but there's a reason that hadn't happened before, because a car manufacturer actually needs to make money on the existing markets. No use in pushing a good idea before the time is right.
MaupitiBlue 7y ago
>To be fair, the current competition is largely a reaction to Tesla's accomplishments. Does it really matter? Tesla is doomed. It’s run out of early adopters and its cool factor is diminishing. The last quarter’s results indicate that demand is down. Supply issues can be spun as a positive, but if demand is weakening... Combine that with increased competition from a half dozen well established players and the writing is on the wall.

To be fair, the current competition is largely a reaction to Tesla's accomplishments.

by asaph 7y ago

To be fair, the current competition is largely a reaction to Tesla's accomplishments.

I question that CW. If that were true, the competitors would be making sporty sedans like Tesla. But almost none are. The competitors—the Bolt, Kona, etc., are all totally different form factors. The alternative, potentially better, theory is that everyone is reacting to the same incentives and market structures. Governments are pushing electric vehicles through subsidies and mandates. Meanwhile, exploding use of portable electronics has led to massive improvements lithium ion battery technology. Tesla has targeted a flashy niche market, expensive sports sedans, but has largely avoided trying to compete in the markets where the sales really are: crossovers and SUVs. (Every year, Toyota sells as many RAV4s as all the vehicles Tesla has ever sold.)

Retric 7y ago
Their are plenty of cars like Aston Martin Rapid E, Mercedes-Benz EQC, Audi E-Tron, and Jaguar I-Pace aiming up market. Tesla is maintaining a brand halo by keeping a reasonable minimum range, but the base Model 3 is relatively inexpensive compared to many competitors.
trimbo 7y ago
> Governments are pushing electric vehicles through subsidies and mandates Specifically, isn't this because of CAFE[1]? Gas mileage compliance is calculated per manufacturer. So BMW can keep selling 17mpg M3s as long as they're selling enough of those i3s[2] [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_econom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_econom [2] - Which sell for $50K but are like $15K used!
- yboris 7y ago
  Thanks for sharing the i3 used cost tidbit! Can confirm -- just found a 2015 one with only 40,000 miles for about $15,000 https://www.carfax.com/vehicle/WBY1Z4C58FV502306 https://www.carfax.com/vehicle/WBY1Z4C58FV502306 Any comment on whether it's a car that would last to 150,000 miles? I see a warranty of "guaranteed at least 70% capacity for 8 years or 100,000 miles".
- eropple 7y ago
  You can find an i3 for $15K used? Where? Carfax has like $24K at minimum for a 2017. Edit: NM, had to widen my search params. I dunno if I'd want to trust a 2015 electric car, though. ;)
  - trimbo 7y ago
    FWIW there were at least 2 <$20K at my local dealer when I checked it out in the winter or fall. Maybe people have caught onto the cheap i3 thing.
seanmcdirmid 7y ago
The Model 3 and even the X can barely be considered expensive sport sedans. The first is a low end lux compact, the second is an expensive SUV or crossover. Only the model S is in that category. In Beijing, I saw a lot of Model S’s on the road in the year before I left. These people would have been driving Audi A5+ or an S-class if it wasn’t for Beijing’s plate lottery (you can get a car quicker if it’s an EV). As far as that goes, the Model S is a good strategy outside of the USA where people aren’t so SUV crazed.

soup10 7y ago

The domestic oil boom and the fact that we are now a net exporter of oil makes the transition to electric cars less urgent.

atq2119 7y ago
This ignores the fact that EVs are currently the only viable path towards road-based transport that is compatible with the continued existence of our species. The transition isn't urgent due to oil prices. It's urgent due to greenhouse gases making the planet inhospitable for humans.
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  Maybe less urgent now? And let’s not forget many other countries with 2030 commitments to going pure EV.
- ummonk 7y ago
  You seem to have a very low opinion of human adaptability to varying climates.
  - newnewpdro 7y ago
    If a bulk of the species living on the planet collapse from climate change, humans will not be having a good time.
- barney54 7y ago
  There are also fuel cell vehicles such as the Honda Clarity, Toyota Mirai, and Hyundai Nexo.
  - moneytide1 7y ago
    Musk has said that hydrogen is foolish. I can understand that angle, because the concussive blast from compressed hydrogen ignition would be more dangerous than a lithium fire. But a hydrogen economy feels like it could work when scaled up. Somehow it feels practical as the most abundant element in the universe, with high energy density. Lithium/cobalt reserves are limited, though recycling measures might could solve that problem. Platinum-group element coated electrodes powered by ~25 year life spans of cadmium/tellurium solar cells (or Perovskite, and many others I'm sure, but Cd/Te is the one I've deployed en masse personally) would allow for low maintenance hydrogen generation and a shift away from natural gas sourcing. Nafion is necessary for the fuel cells themselves but I'm not sure about the production process behind that.

windexh8er 7y ago

This is my foundational fear of losing Tesla. Love them or hate them if they were to sink I feel the large drive to compete with them goes away and we go back to business as usual burning dead dinosaurs. While Tesla isn't perfect by any stretch I do think they continue to be very important to the overall market progression and higher expectations of auto manufacturers.

jjeaff 7y ago
Is there really a large drive to compete with them? So far they have proven that unit profitability is difficult if not impossible with current tech. And meanwhile, Ford is selling a quarter million F-150 trucks every quarter compared to Teslas total units per quarter around 40k. I don't think the big automakers are worried yet.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- windexh8er 7y ago
  There is. Buyers of an F150 are not buyers of any Tesla product. Ford just invested heavily in Rivian [0]. That's Tesla's backyard for sure and is a departure from those buyers of the F150. [0] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/24/business/ford-rivian-investment.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/24/business/ford-rivian-inve... While maybe not "worried" Ford sees a risk.

Barrin92 7y ago

Self driving and electric cars have been in development for a long time. Mercedes Benz in the 1980s was testing automated driving on empty streets in Munich. The difference between Tesla and others isn't that Tesla somehow was the first to come up with these ideas, they were the first to attempt to run a car company like a startup and marketing themselves as a disruptor. Which in a sense is true because it brought the products to the forefront, but there's a reason that hadn't happened before, because a car manufacturer actually needs to make money on the existing markets. No use in pushing a good idea before the time is right.

MaupitiBlue 7y ago

>To be fair, the current competition is largely a reaction to Tesla's accomplishments. Does it really matter? Tesla is doomed. It’s run out of early adopters and its cool factor is diminishing. The last quarter’s results indicate that demand is down. Supply issues can be spun as a positive, but if demand is weakening... Combine that with increased competition from a half dozen well established players and the writing is on the wall.