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>Being sentenced to prison had no significant effects on arrests or convictions for violent crimes after release from prison, but imprisonment modestly reduced

>Being sentenced to prison had no significant effects on arrests or convictions for violent crimes after release from prison, but imprisonment modestly reduced the probability of violence if comparisons included the effects of incapacitation during imprisonment. So in the final accounting, probation increases the probability of violence while imprisonment reduces it. Imprisonment reduces violence while the offender is in prison, and it doesn't seem like it increases arrests or convictions afterward.

ngneer 8y ago
ROI
fifnir 8y ago
In final accounting, in the words of the authors: These results suggest that for individuals on the current policy margin between prison and probation, imprisonment is an ineffective long-term intervention for violence prevention, as it has, on balance, no rehabilitative or deterrent effects after release.
- SiVal 8y ago
  Yes, the words of the authors. But the final accounting according to the data of the authors: during incarceration they commit no crimes against society and after incarceration they resume committing crime at the same rate as if they had not been locked up. So, longer incarceration reduces crime. I don't know if that conclusion is actually true or not. It seems as though it would be as long as criminality didn't increase after incarceration to an extent that more than canceled the reduction during incarceration, but they claim that doesn't happen. Well, okay then, longer sentences reduce crime by, as they say, "incapacitating" the criminal during his incarceration. They seem to be burying that lede.
  - fifnir 8y ago
    > So, longer incarceration reduces crime. Killing them would also reduce crime (https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png) but I don't think that this is enough of a metric to judge something as good for society
- mr_toad 8y ago
  > deterrent effects after release These studies are always done on people who were undeterred by the possibility of incarceration in the first place. It’s hard to imagine a bigger selection bias. It’d be like testing the efficacy of a drug, but only on patients for whom it didn’t work the first time.
saulrh 8y ago
> imprisonment modestly reduced the probability of violence if comparisons included the effects of incapacitation during imprisonment. I'd have to read the article to confirm, but at first glance that reads like it might be "Prison damages people so much that that are physically incapable of violence." That's... not exactly a stunning endorsement of the system.
- marcosdumay 8y ago
  That means that people in jail can't go and kill random people at street, so those people commit less violence.
  - SolaceQuantum 8y ago
    I believe the reading of “incorporating incapacitation” means that jail makes people physically sicker and injured. The act of jailing someone is commuting violence to them, in the same way that reoffense rates go to zero for all criminals who are punished via death penalty.
    - slapshot 8y ago
      In academic literature about criminal law, "incapacitation" has the very specific meaning that somebody who is in jail is not able to commit crimes on the street. It has nothing to do with their health (even if they may suffer a health impact).

ngneer 8y ago

ROI

fifnir 8y ago

In final accounting, in the words of the authors: These results suggest that for individuals on the current policy margin between prison and probation, imprisonment is an ineffective long-term intervention for violence prevention, as it has, on balance, no rehabilitative or deterrent effects after release.

SiVal 8y ago
Yes, the words of the authors. But the final accounting according to the data of the authors: during incarceration they commit no crimes against society and after incarceration they resume committing crime at the same rate as if they had not been locked up. So, longer incarceration reduces crime. I don't know if that conclusion is actually true or not. It seems as though it would be as long as criminality didn't increase after incarceration to an extent that more than canceled the reduction during incarceration, but they claim that doesn't happen. Well, okay then, longer sentences reduce crime by, as they say, "incapacitating" the criminal during his incarceration. They seem to be burying that lede.
- fifnir 8y ago
  > So, longer incarceration reduces crime. Killing them would also reduce crime (https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png) but I don't think that this is enough of a metric to judge something as good for society
mr_toad 8y ago
> deterrent effects after release These studies are always done on people who were undeterred by the possibility of incarceration in the first place. It’s hard to imagine a bigger selection bias. It’d be like testing the efficacy of a drug, but only on patients for whom it didn’t work the first time.

saulrh 8y ago

> imprisonment modestly reduced the probability of violence if comparisons included the effects of incapacitation during imprisonment. I'd have to read the article to confirm, but at first glance that reads like it might be "Prison damages people so much that that are physically incapable of violence." That's... not exactly a stunning endorsement of the system.

marcosdumay 8y ago
That means that people in jail can't go and kill random people at street, so those people commit less violence.
- SolaceQuantum 8y ago
  I believe the reading of “incorporating incapacitation” means that jail makes people physically sicker and injured. The act of jailing someone is commuting violence to them, in the same way that reoffense rates go to zero for all criminals who are punished via death penalty.
  - slapshot 8y ago
    In academic literature about criminal law, "incapacitation" has the very specific meaning that somebody who is in jail is not able to commit crimes on the street. It has nothing to do with their health (even if they may suffer a health impact).