7 ms·

A natural experiment study of the effects of imprisonment on violence

49 points by arunbahl 7y ago

RcouF1uZ4gsC 7y ago
>Being sentenced to prison had no significant effects on arrests or convictions for violent crimes after release from prison, but imprisonment modestly reduced the probability of violence if comparisons included the effects of incapacitation during imprisonment. So in the final accounting, probation increases the probability of violence while imprisonment reduces it. Imprisonment reduces violence while the offender is in prison, and it doesn't seem like it increases arrests or convictions afterward.
- ngneer 7y ago
  ROI
- fifnir 7y ago
  In final accounting, in the words of the authors: These results suggest that for individuals on the current policy margin between prison and probation, imprisonment is an ineffective long-term intervention for violence prevention, as it has, on balance, no rehabilitative or deterrent effects after release.
  - SiVal 7y ago
    Yes, the words of the authors. But the final accounting according to the data of the authors: during incarceration they commit no crimes against society and after incarceration they resume committing crime at the same rate as if they had not been locked up. So, longer incarceration reduces crime. I don't know if that conclusion is actually true or not. It seems as though it would be as long as criminality didn't increase after incarceration to an extent that more than canceled the reduction during incarceration, but they claim that doesn't happen. Well, okay then, longer sentences reduce crime by, as they say, "incapacitating" the criminal during his incarceration. They seem to be burying that lede.
    - fifnir 7y ago
      > So, longer incarceration reduces crime. Killing them would also reduce crime (https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png) but I don't think that this is enough of a metric to judge something as good for society
  - mr_toad 7y ago
    > deterrent effects after release These studies are always done on people who were undeterred by the possibility of incarceration in the first place. It’s hard to imagine a bigger selection bias. It’d be like testing the efficacy of a drug, but only on patients for whom it didn’t work the first time.
- saulrh 7y ago
  > imprisonment modestly reduced the probability of violence if comparisons included the effects of incapacitation during imprisonment. I'd have to read the article to confirm, but at first glance that reads like it might be "Prison damages people so much that that are physically incapable of violence." That's... not exactly a stunning endorsement of the system.
  - marcosdumay 7y ago
    That means that people in jail can't go and kill random people at street, so those people commit less violence.
    - SolaceQuantum 7y ago
      I believe the reading of “incorporating incapacitation” means that jail makes people physically sicker and injured. The act of jailing someone is commuting violence to them, in the same way that reoffense rates go to zero for all criminals who are punished via death penalty.
      - slapshot 7y ago
        In academic literature about criminal law, "incapacitation" has the very specific meaning that somebody who is in jail is not able to commit crimes on the street. It has nothing to do with their health (even if they may suffer a health impact).
chrisco255 7y ago
My theory is that prison is only effective on people that are already fairly morally grounded and with pretty healthy social and mental dynamics. So those folks can and do bounce back. But prison does nothing to help with mental illness or help give folks a sense of community once they're out.
- PorterDuff 7y ago
  They may have a sense of community, it just might be one that is harmful to your own. My own theory is that prison has been set up to remove potential criminals from the street, chosen via a demographic of education/ethnicity/wealth/gender/aggressiveness, during their prime years of being a nuisance. The results don't have to be particularly fair. There's no real intention of transformation or revenge, just a form of quarantine. Looking at a chart of incarceration rate over time and murder rate over time, this last a better indicator of crime than most, you can make a case that the big ramp up in jailing somewhat matches the peak and fall of murders. It's tough to find causalities in anything, but I rather like that one.
  - csin 7y ago
    I wonder if you'll be singing a different tune, if you were born black...
    - PorterDuff 7y ago
      What tune? I'm just giving a theory of why things have evolved the way they have.
      - rexpop 7y ago
        > potential criminals This is a self-referential definition. The removal of vibrant individuals from such communities is design to crippled them, making them more reliant on, e.g. unfavorable employment.
        7y ago
swayvil 7y ago
Prison is cheap torture. That's the long and short of it. Torture is traumatic. Traumatized people are violent. Simple.
siedes 7y ago
What if we had prison cities where prisoners can live "freely" and have their own economies and stuff? Let's see how they like trying to live normal lives with other people who have no qualms about stealing and killing to get what they want, just like they may have done themselves to innocent people before they were imprisoned. Will the criminals learn to get along or will they end up killing each other? I wouldn't care because they're in the prison city and not anywhere near me and other normal people, which is what prison is for right? Maybe we can even free those who prove themselves to be outstanding citizens in those prison cities. Just a thought.
- geowwy 7y ago
  There's precedence in the Bible. Ancient Israel had sanctuary cities where murderers could go to escape punishment.
  - koenigdavidmj 7y ago
    This was for manslaughter; murder with intent was explicitly excluded from making use of these.
- p1necone 7y ago
  You seem to be under the impression that the prison population is made up primarily of violent thieves and murderers - that is not the case.
  - siedes 7y ago
    We'll have nonviolent prison cities separate from the violent ones. :)
- jpfed 7y ago
  They're called penal colonies, mate.
- scottlocklin 7y ago
  I've seen this movie. I kinda like New York though, and LA is indefensible; maybe we can use San Francisco instead. "You can't meet the Duke! Are you crazy? Nobody gets to meet the Duke."

49 points by arunbahl 7y ago

>Being sentenced to prison had no significant effects on arrests or convictions for violent crimes after release from prison, but imprisonment modestly reduced the probability of violence if comparisons included the effects of incapacitation during imprisonment. So in the final accounting, probation increases the probability of violence while imprisonment reduces it. Imprisonment reduces violence while the offender is in prison, and it doesn't seem like it increases arrests or convictions afterward.

ngneer 7y ago
ROI
fifnir 7y ago
In final accounting, in the words of the authors: These results suggest that for individuals on the current policy margin between prison and probation, imprisonment is an ineffective long-term intervention for violence prevention, as it has, on balance, no rehabilitative or deterrent effects after release.
- SiVal 7y ago
  Yes, the words of the authors. But the final accounting according to the data of the authors: during incarceration they commit no crimes against society and after incarceration they resume committing crime at the same rate as if they had not been locked up. So, longer incarceration reduces crime. I don't know if that conclusion is actually true or not. It seems as though it would be as long as criminality didn't increase after incarceration to an extent that more than canceled the reduction during incarceration, but they claim that doesn't happen. Well, okay then, longer sentences reduce crime by, as they say, "incapacitating" the criminal during his incarceration. They seem to be burying that lede.
  - fifnir 7y ago
    > So, longer incarceration reduces crime. Killing them would also reduce crime (https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/cells.png) but I don't think that this is enough of a metric to judge something as good for society
- mr_toad 7y ago
  > deterrent effects after release These studies are always done on people who were undeterred by the possibility of incarceration in the first place. It’s hard to imagine a bigger selection bias. It’d be like testing the efficacy of a drug, but only on patients for whom it didn’t work the first time.
saulrh 7y ago
> imprisonment modestly reduced the probability of violence if comparisons included the effects of incapacitation during imprisonment. I'd have to read the article to confirm, but at first glance that reads like it might be "Prison damages people so much that that are physically incapable of violence." That's... not exactly a stunning endorsement of the system.
- marcosdumay 7y ago
  That means that people in jail can't go and kill random people at street, so those people commit less violence.
  - SolaceQuantum 7y ago
    I believe the reading of “incorporating incapacitation” means that jail makes people physically sicker and injured. The act of jailing someone is commuting violence to them, in the same way that reoffense rates go to zero for all criminals who are punished via death penalty.
    - slapshot 7y ago
      In academic literature about criminal law, "incapacitation" has the very specific meaning that somebody who is in jail is not able to commit crimes on the street. It has nothing to do with their health (even if they may suffer a health impact).

chrisco255 7y ago

My theory is that prison is only effective on people that are already fairly morally grounded and with pretty healthy social and mental dynamics. So those folks can and do bounce back. But prison does nothing to help with mental illness or help give folks a sense of community once they're out.

PorterDuff 7y ago
They may have a sense of community, it just might be one that is harmful to your own. My own theory is that prison has been set up to remove potential criminals from the street, chosen via a demographic of education/ethnicity/wealth/gender/aggressiveness, during their prime years of being a nuisance. The results don't have to be particularly fair. There's no real intention of transformation or revenge, just a form of quarantine. Looking at a chart of incarceration rate over time and murder rate over time, this last a better indicator of crime than most, you can make a case that the big ramp up in jailing somewhat matches the peak and fall of murders. It's tough to find causalities in anything, but I rather like that one.
- csin 7y ago
  I wonder if you'll be singing a different tune, if you were born black...
  - PorterDuff 7y ago
    What tune? I'm just giving a theory of why things have evolved the way they have.
    - rexpop 7y ago
      > potential criminals This is a self-referential definition. The removal of vibrant individuals from such communities is design to crippled them, making them more reliant on, e.g. unfavorable employment.
      - 7y ago

swayvil 7y ago

Prison is cheap torture. That's the long and short of it. Torture is traumatic. Traumatized people are violent. Simple.

siedes 7y ago

What if we had prison cities where prisoners can live "freely" and have their own economies and stuff? Let's see how they like trying to live normal lives with other people who have no qualms about stealing and killing to get what they want, just like they may have done themselves to innocent people before they were imprisoned. Will the criminals learn to get along or will they end up killing each other? I wouldn't care because they're in the prison city and not anywhere near me and other normal people, which is what prison is for right? Maybe we can even free those who prove themselves to be outstanding citizens in those prison cities. Just a thought.

geowwy 7y ago
There's precedence in the Bible. Ancient Israel had sanctuary cities where murderers could go to escape punishment.
- koenigdavidmj 7y ago
  This was for manslaughter; murder with intent was explicitly excluded from making use of these.
p1necone 7y ago
You seem to be under the impression that the prison population is made up primarily of violent thieves and murderers - that is not the case.
- siedes 7y ago
  We'll have nonviolent prison cities separate from the violent ones. :)
jpfed 7y ago
They're called penal colonies, mate.
scottlocklin 7y ago
I've seen this movie. I kinda like New York though, and LA is indefensible; maybe we can use San Francisco instead. "You can't meet the Duke! Are you crazy? Nobody gets to meet the Duke."