"As for what’s pushing households to tap into their rainy-day funds, Deutsche Bank recently pointed to the 15 percent year-on-year increase in household interes

"As for what’s pushing households to tap into their rainy-day funds, Deutsche Bank recently pointed to the 15 percent year-on-year increase in household interest payments. Levels of payments rising at a similar pace preceded the onsets of the last two recessions." That's a pretty far fetched setup when you examine the actual facts of household debt interest payments. Given the bearish angle of the article, households must be seeing soaring debt interest payment costs, right? They must, the article is pushing that very claim. Fact: household debt service payments as a share of disposable income were at 40+ year lows, at 9.88% in 4Q2018. That's according to the Federal Reserve. Since Nixon was President, US households have not struggled less when it comes to debt service costs. Let's examine how today's figure compares to the past. It must be quite high and indicating a drowning consumer, surely. During the roaring 1990s, the lowest that ever got was 11.4% in 1998. It was up to 12% by 4Q2000, far beyond where it's at now. The best it ever got in the 1980s, was 10.2%, in 4Q1980. Peak economy prior to the great recession, in 2005 and 2006, it was up at 12.5% +/-. Again, far higher than it is now. In 1Q2013, it was at 10.2%. In 3Q2016, it was up at 10.07%. Ok, but wait, households must be loading up on debt, right? They must be in terrible shape. Nope. Total household debt as a percentage of disposable income, is sitting back at 2003 levels, prior to the insanity of the housing bubble. It has seen no large run-up increase yet (typical of what happens leading up to the time just before a recession). Here's what that looks like: https://i.imgur.com/fWGzgYJ.png https://i.imgur.com/fWGzgYJ.png The article is intentionally dropping context.