6 ms·

Don't skate to where the puck is, skate to where the puck is going to be. Electric cars can't compete against gasoline cars until the price hits about $6/gallo

Don't skate to where the puck is, skate to where the puck is going to be. Electric cars can't compete against gasoline cars until the price hits about $6/gallon. And considering that crude prices are relatively low, but gas in CA is almost $4/gallon in the Bay Area, it doesn't take much time for normal rates to hit $6/gallon in the next 10 years or so. At that price, it becomes more economic and that's the time frame probably what they're targeting as well.

Damorian 7y ago
What? They compete today with significantly lower fuel cost. You see 100+ mpge on every electric car I know of today, you're looking at half-1/3 the per mile cost in an electric car. That more than makes up for the higher upfront cost over the lifetime of the vehicle, with cars you can go buy right now, today.
- solarkraft 7y ago
  And that doesn't even take into account the superior UX.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - danw1979 7y ago
    I don't know why you got down voted on this. My experience of EV vs ICE (sometimes in the same vehicle - daily driving in a Prius plug-in) agrees entirely with your comment: the lovely EV experience of linear, quiet acceleration is so pleasant compared to driving a petrol car, even an automatic. And my Prius in EV mode isn't even a that great an electric experience compared to that of an i3 or 2018 Leaf.
holy_city 7y ago
> gas in CA is almost $4/gallon in the Bay Area And the national average (today) is $2.95, you might as well compare Hawaii and Alaska which are also economic islands. >it doesn't take much time for normal rates to hit $6/gallon in the next 10 years or so. The national average 10 years ago was $2.45, which is $2.90 accounting for inflation. The only way gas hits $6 is if we have a second Great Inflation or massive political changes in the United States and abroad.
- vinay427 7y ago
  That doesn't make it an economic island by any means. This is simply due to regulations that virtually only affect gas prices. By that measure, Florida or Oregon would be economic islands due to their anomalous taxes.
- s3graham 7y ago
  That's very US centric though. It's already much higher where I live (Vancouver, just minutes from the US border): $1.70 CAD/L ~= $4.80 USD/gal. I don't think $6 is far off at all in many locations.
- sampo 7y ago
  Gas is currently about 1.56€/liter ($6.6 per gallon) in Finland.
llukas 7y ago
ICE cars cant compete with convenience of: * not needing to refuel * less maintenance needed * not spewing particulates in air etc (if you care about what you breathe)
- calvinmorrison 7y ago
  * not needing to refuel no, we're taking Soothing30MinuteRelaxingBreaksAt200MileIntervalsAwesomeHappy™ brought to you by Tesla™ instead
  - zaroth 7y ago
    I don't know about you. I've driven the last 5 months / 5,000 miles without using a Supercharger once, except for the first day I took delivery just to try it out. It's there when I need it for the long road trip. But daily life is effectively refueling-free. What percentage of round-trips are under 200 miles? NHTS recorded the distance from ~750,000 car trips in 2009 and found the 95th percentile is 30 miles, and the 99th percentile is 70 miles. Somewhere on the order of 1 in 1,000 trips needs a Supercharger stop along the way. [1] - https://nhts.ornl.gov/vehicle-trips https://nhts.ornl.gov/vehicle-trips
    - bluGill 7y ago
      I go on vacation a few times a year. Renting a car just for that is more expensive than extra cost of fuel. Not to mention most rental cars won't let me use my truck as a truck (putting rock in the back damages the bed, and a trailer is right out - both things I do only a couple times a year but I still own a truck for just those few times). IF this is as good as they claim I don't see electric cars as worth it as a first car. They are slightly cheaper for an in-town only commuter car, but the downsides of electric cars (expensive battery replacement, limited range without long recharge times) are something that fans hate to acknowledge. Note that I said first car, once you have decided to have a second car electric is probably better.
      - zaroth 7y ago

Damorian 7y ago

What? They compete today with significantly lower fuel cost. You see 100+ mpge on every electric car I know of today, you're looking at half-1/3 the per mile cost in an electric car. That more than makes up for the higher upfront cost over the lifetime of the vehicle, with cars you can go buy right now, today.

solarkraft 7y ago
And that doesn't even take into account the superior UX.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- danw1979 7y ago
  I don't know why you got down voted on this. My experience of EV vs ICE (sometimes in the same vehicle - daily driving in a Prius plug-in) agrees entirely with your comment: the lovely EV experience of linear, quiet acceleration is so pleasant compared to driving a petrol car, even an automatic. And my Prius in EV mode isn't even a that great an electric experience compared to that of an i3 or 2018 Leaf.

holy_city 7y ago

> gas in CA is almost $4/gallon in the Bay Area And the national average (today) is $2.95, you might as well compare Hawaii and Alaska which are also economic islands. >it doesn't take much time for normal rates to hit $6/gallon in the next 10 years or so. The national average 10 years ago was $2.45, which is $2.90 accounting for inflation. The only way gas hits $6 is if we have a second Great Inflation or massive political changes in the United States and abroad.

vinay427 7y ago
That doesn't make it an economic island by any means. This is simply due to regulations that virtually only affect gas prices. By that measure, Florida or Oregon would be economic islands due to their anomalous taxes.
s3graham 7y ago
That's very US centric though. It's already much higher where I live (Vancouver, just minutes from the US border): $1.70 CAD/L ~= $4.80 USD/gal. I don't think $6 is far off at all in many locations.
sampo 7y ago
Gas is currently about 1.56€/liter ($6.6 per gallon) in Finland.

llukas 7y ago

ICE cars cant compete with convenience of: * not needing to refuel * less maintenance needed * not spewing particulates in air etc (if you care about what you breathe)

calvinmorrison 7y ago
* not needing to refuel no, we're taking Soothing30MinuteRelaxingBreaksAt200MileIntervalsAwesomeHappy™ brought to you by Tesla™ instead
- zaroth 7y ago
  I don't know about you. I've driven the last 5 months / 5,000 miles without using a Supercharger once, except for the first day I took delivery just to try it out. It's there when I need it for the long road trip. But daily life is effectively refueling-free. What percentage of round-trips are under 200 miles? NHTS recorded the distance from ~750,000 car trips in 2009 and found the 95th percentile is 30 miles, and the 99th percentile is 70 miles. Somewhere on the order of 1 in 1,000 trips needs a Supercharger stop along the way. [1] - https://nhts.ornl.gov/vehicle-trips https://nhts.ornl.gov/vehicle-trips
  - bluGill 7y ago
    I go on vacation a few times a year. Renting a car just for that is more expensive than extra cost of fuel. Not to mention most rental cars won't let me use my truck as a truck (putting rock in the back damages the bed, and a trailer is right out - both things I do only a couple times a year but I still own a truck for just those few times). IF this is as good as they claim I don't see electric cars as worth it as a first car. They are slightly cheaper for an in-town only commuter car, but the downsides of electric cars (expensive battery replacement, limited range without long recharge times) are something that fans hate to acknowledge. Note that I said first car, once you have decided to have a second car electric is probably better.
    - zaroth 7y ago