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We're not replacing all other stores with Amazon. The Amazon-takes-over-retail fantasy is not going to happen. Their online retail business is now a very slow g
by adventured 8y ago
We're not replacing all other stores with Amazon. The Amazon-takes-over-retail fantasy is not going to happen. Their online retail business is now a very slow growth business. For them to actually take over retail, they'd need to be seeing high rates of growth year after year for decades yet. At their rate of deceleration, they'll be at a mid single digits rate of growth within a couple of years. Their whole business - AWS, devices, online retail, physical retail - is going to struggle to stay above 10% sales growth in that same timeline as a matter of fact. The far bigger, more likely risk is that their traditional online retail business sees a near contraction stall four to five years out.
Walmart is still doing $500 billion in sales by comparison. Unless Amazon finds a magic way to turbocharge their online growth (1 day shipping isn't going to cut it), it'll still take 20 to 30 years to just match the size of Walmart in retail, and that's if everything goes well for Amazon.
What Amazon figured out, is that they can't kill Walmart via online retail (which is the sole segment that Amazon has any retail dominance). So they're increasingly exploring physical retail as their only way to grow. Wholefoods was Amazon being forced to buy their growth, it was a classic sign of a business that has lost much of its organic growth. Their days of serious retail growth online are dead.
- olivermarks 8y agoMatured rather than 'dead' - that cycle is now mostly complete
- adventured 8y agoDead was the right term. It refers to the high rate of former growth in their online retail business. That high rate of growth is dead. The business is mature. I didn't say the business was dead.
- bluedino 8y agoSince half of Walmarts revenues are from groceries, I wonder how much of a difference it would make if you coud use food stamps at Amazon