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I wonder what the post-Bezos future will look like after we have a single source remaining for all our daily necessities, and Amazon enters a later stage of its

I wonder what the post-Bezos future will look like after we have a single source remaining for all our daily necessities, and Amazon enters a later stage of its corporate lifecycle and begins to go the way of IBM or GE. If we replace all other stores with just Amazon, that seems like an enormous risk to human life if Amazon starts to become mismanaged in the future.

24gttghh 7y ago
That already happened with Walmart to an extent, right? Not that I want Amazon to do the same thing...
adventured 7y ago
We're not replacing all other stores with Amazon. The Amazon-takes-over-retail fantasy is not going to happen. Their online retail business is now a very slow growth business. For them to actually take over retail, they'd need to be seeing high rates of growth year after year for decades yet. At their rate of deceleration, they'll be at a mid single digits rate of growth within a couple of years. Their whole business - AWS, devices, online retail, physical retail - is going to struggle to stay above 10% sales growth in that same timeline as a matter of fact. The far bigger, more likely risk is that their traditional online retail business sees a near contraction stall four to five years out. Walmart is still doing $500 billion in sales by comparison. Unless Amazon finds a magic way to turbocharge their online growth (1 day shipping isn't going to cut it), it'll still take 20 to 30 years to just match the size of Walmart in retail, and that's if everything goes well for Amazon. What Amazon figured out, is that they can't kill Walmart via online retail (which is the sole segment that Amazon has any retail dominance). So they're increasingly exploring physical retail as their only way to grow. Wholefoods was Amazon being forced to buy their growth, it was a classic sign of a business that has lost much of its organic growth. Their days of serious retail growth online are dead.
- olivermarks 7y ago
  Matured rather than 'dead' - that cycle is now mostly complete
  - adventured 7y ago
    Dead was the right term. It refers to the high rate of former growth in their online retail business. That high rate of growth is dead. The business is mature. I didn't say the business was dead.
- bluedino 7y ago
  Since half of Walmarts revenues are from groceries, I wonder how much of a difference it would make if you coud use food stamps at Amazon
tracer4201 7y ago
Your post is inaccurate. WalMart still beats Amazon handsomely in terms of revenue, not to mention, Amazon only recently shifted to profitability, and now their growth is declining. This notion that Amazon has retail market capture or is close to market capture is completely inaccurate.
sjg007 7y ago
I mean, we had Sears previously. That is the direct analog of Amazon. I think you will always find boutiques, hybrid supermarkets and then destination like experiences. People will pay for convenience and last minute availability. Also, Amazon is filled to the brim with Chinese crap.
- delfinom 7y ago
  Amazon has gotten really bad since they opened the floodgate to Chinese crap. Alot of it is shady as fuck.
mimixco 7y ago
IBM and GE are both 100 years old, so Amazon still has plenty of room left in its game.

24gttghh 7y ago

That already happened with Walmart to an extent, right? Not that I want Amazon to do the same thing...

adventured 7y ago

We're not replacing all other stores with Amazon. The Amazon-takes-over-retail fantasy is not going to happen. Their online retail business is now a very slow growth business. For them to actually take over retail, they'd need to be seeing high rates of growth year after year for decades yet. At their rate of deceleration, they'll be at a mid single digits rate of growth within a couple of years. Their whole business - AWS, devices, online retail, physical retail - is going to struggle to stay above 10% sales growth in that same timeline as a matter of fact. The far bigger, more likely risk is that their traditional online retail business sees a near contraction stall four to five years out. Walmart is still doing $500 billion in sales by comparison. Unless Amazon finds a magic way to turbocharge their online growth (1 day shipping isn't going to cut it), it'll still take 20 to 30 years to just match the size of Walmart in retail, and that's if everything goes well for Amazon. What Amazon figured out, is that they can't kill Walmart via online retail (which is the sole segment that Amazon has any retail dominance). So they're increasingly exploring physical retail as their only way to grow. Wholefoods was Amazon being forced to buy their growth, it was a classic sign of a business that has lost much of its organic growth. Their days of serious retail growth online are dead.

olivermarks 7y ago
Matured rather than 'dead' - that cycle is now mostly complete
- adventured 7y ago
  Dead was the right term. It refers to the high rate of former growth in their online retail business. That high rate of growth is dead. The business is mature. I didn't say the business was dead.
bluedino 7y ago
Since half of Walmarts revenues are from groceries, I wonder how much of a difference it would make if you coud use food stamps at Amazon

tracer4201 7y ago

Your post is inaccurate. WalMart still beats Amazon handsomely in terms of revenue, not to mention, Amazon only recently shifted to profitability, and now their growth is declining. This notion that Amazon has retail market capture or is close to market capture is completely inaccurate.

sjg007 7y ago

I mean, we had Sears previously. That is the direct analog of Amazon. I think you will always find boutiques, hybrid supermarkets and then destination like experiences. People will pay for convenience and last minute availability. Also, Amazon is filled to the brim with Chinese crap.

delfinom 7y ago
Amazon has gotten really bad since they opened the floodgate to Chinese crap. Alot of it is shady as fuck.

mimixco 7y ago

IBM and GE are both 100 years old, so Amazon still has plenty of room left in its game.