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Can you show me the definitive proof that Starlink (along with its competitors, who will plausibly also launch a vast number of satellites) can't support eg 20
by adventured 8y ago
Can you show me the definitive proof that Starlink (along with its competitors, who will plausibly also launch a vast number of satellites) can't support eg 20 million customers in the US over time? I'd be very interested in that demonstration of the limits on the market.
Also can you support the premise that their customers would be concentrated in major metros, when the biggest beneficiaries will be outside of metros where broadband options are drastically worse (which is why the primary market for HughesNet the past two decades has not been concentrated in major metros).
Access providers in metros can soundly compete with Starlink. They'll lower prices, increase speeds, improve bundles, etc. Their infrastructure and customers are already in place there, they won't just ignore Starlink, they'll compete. That heavily limits the upside potential for the Starlink concept in metros. It's everwhere else, mostly lacking any real broadband, that Starlink & Co will face minimal competition and will particularly lure customers. It's why HughesNet still has over a million customers today.
I've seen a lot of people claim - with very little supporting evidence thus far - that the market is extremely limited due to capacity restraint.
While you're proving out your claim, if you don't mind given that you've got a strong handle on the market ceiling, please provide what you believe to be the maximum subscriber potential for Starlink - and the approach in general - in the US over time.
- wmf 8y agoI think Starlink is for rural customers and can't compete with decent wired broadband. You were the one who seems to be putting it against cable (which exists in the metros, not in rural areas). The MIT work linked in this thread calculates a total worldwide capacity in the ~20 Tbps range for Starlink.
- Bluestrike2 8y agoI didn't see the link, but here's the presentation[0] I believe you're referring to. It estimates Starlink's max total system forward capacity at 23.7 Tbps. 0. http://www.mit.edu/~portillo/files/Comparison-LEO-IAC-2018-slides.pdf http://www.mit.edu/~portillo/files/Comparison-LEO-IAC-2018-s...