6 ms·

Memory Makers Plan to Cut NAND Flash Production

64 points by deafcalculus 7y ago

dmitrygr 7y ago
All at once? Could be an accident but could be collusion
mikhailt 7y ago
Questions: 1. Can someone explain why this is not a clear cut of a collusion? Didn't the same "cartel" get busted for this behavior a while ago? 2. Why aren't they under tight regulation since they have a history of doing this?
- tooltalk 7y ago
  because there is no proof of collusion. Absolutely no need for any further regulation.
  - mikhailt 7y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing They've pled guilty in the original DRAM price fixing collusion and they just got sued last year for the same charge, it's ongoing. I can only guess that laws are more lenient in Asia and they can only be charged in US after the fact. Edit: removed my opinion about getting sued again as that's off the topic.
    - tooltalk 7y ago
      > They've pled guilty in the original DRAM price fixing collusion and they just got sued last year for the same charge, it's ongoing. Now you are making stuff up. We are in 2018, not 2006. There is no regulatory investigation by any gov't antitrust agency. China's NDRC announced that they had "massive evidence" of price fixing by Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix, in 2018. It turned out they had nothing, so instead they tried to blackmail Samsung and SK Hynix to drop all pending and future patent lawsuits against China's domestic companies in exchange for dropping a multibillion dollar fine and antitrust violation that they couldn't prove. You clearly haven't read the class-action lawsuit by Hagens Berman in which the law firm alleges that the memory companies "coordinated" by signaling each other via PR. Do you understand why the class lawsuit is not going anywhere?
      - mikhailt 7y ago
        Please provide sources to the NDRC case, that's why I asked in the first place about why this isn't collusion. My understanding is limited to the original 2006 case where these companies were in fact charged and fined by Department of Justice, that's not a made up story and I provided the source to that. Telling me "no proof of collusion" without any source is the same as making stuff up. Technically, we're in 2019 but that's off the topic.
        tooltalk 7y ago
        Google "china ndrc dram price fixing -digitimes" If you are citing Wiki, you probably know very little about the older 2006 case. You seem to make haste assumption on what, how, and who are involed this time around without any facts or understanding claims made by different parties. > Telling me "no proof of collusion" without any source is the same as making stuff up. You are the one making accusation against the DRAM makers of price-fixing, it's your obligation to prove your allegations. The burden of proof is not on me to prove the negative (which is a logical fallacy).
        mises 7y ago
        I am highly suspicious of China's motivation for this. It happened at roughly the same time as news broke that the chinese stole Micron's technology. China is not exactly known for good or fair practices, and it would not be the first time they screwed over a foreign competitor and stole their tech to make a competitor.
    - ComplexSystems 7y ago
      Wow. Looks like all five manufacturers pled guilty in the original US case. Given that the suit from last year is ongoing, this seems to be a real problem in this industry.
reacharavindh 7y ago
> three major manufacturers of NAND memory — Intel, Micron, and SK Hynix — have announced that they will be taking measures to address the oversupply Isn't that illegal? To fix the market by colluding and price fixing? How is this different from the act that Mercedes, BMW and VW are getting fined for for colluding to not release emissions tech?
- tooltalk 7y ago
  it's illegal if and only if it can be proven that they coordinated their production cut. They all respond to the same changing market conditions -- they can't just continue increasing their production when the price continues its downward spiral. Further, the largest producer Samsung hasn't joined the foray yet according to the article. Samsung is a big variable in this -- the company's expansion created the memory glut that drove the whole industry to record loss in 2015-2016. The EU's antitrust authority claims that the automakers "coordinated" strategies to limit competition. This is probably not the case here.
  - mises 7y ago
    It is possible that Samsung will not do so. It's the same problem that would have affected them had they actually colluded: each player has incentive to wait until others have cut production/raised price and maintain their own. Handy way to snap up market share. Every one loves to scream "price fixing!", but it's not easy to do and almost always collapses.
  - wnevets 7y ago
    >This is probably not the case here. Why do we think that? Hasn't these companies and/or industry been caught and fined for illegally coordinating their efforts before?
    - tooltalk 7y ago
      Well, one of the reasons is that that's what we've expected all along. When Samsung announced a major expansion in early 2010's, many analysts predicted the price glut in 2015-16 that followed. That memory price glut (and a record loss by all industry participants) in turn discouraged capex by memory makers that resulted in the 2017-18 boom we just witnessed. So now, the windfall during the last boom likewise encouraged higher capex and production increase that is now driving down the price and their bottom line again -- the industry nearly completes a full cycle and is at another trough marked by decrease in capex and production cut. There is really nothing too conspiratorial about this business cycle. Sure, I think every memory makers at one point got caught price-fixing, but you can't just say they are colluding again just because they are all cutting production under unfavorable market condition (ie, lower demand/falling price).
microcolonel 7y ago
Buy Samsung NAND, it's good and they keep making it.
- Rafuino 7y ago
  They were the first to cut back supply. I'm guessing you work for them? https://www.techspot.com/news/79303-micron-follows-samsung-reducing-nand-dram-production-wake.html https://www.techspot.com/news/79303-micron-follows-samsung-r... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-30/samsung-profit-misses-estimates-as-chip-demand-slides https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-30/samsung-p...
Emily4737 7y ago
Love of animals with humans Just see their love Even you will feel amazed https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6eexa2 https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6eexa2 World's biggest truck jump https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x76ptz4 https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x76ptz4 Cute dog doing shopping and lots of other acts like humans https://dai.ly/x76vl8s https://dai.ly/x76vl8s See the video of Fish walking with legs like humans https://dai.ly/x76wkpu https://dai.ly/x76wkpu Twins sisters married with twins brothers See how they are looking together https://dai.ly/x76wkig https://dai.ly/x76wkig Lol very funny dog dance Just try to control your laugh https://dai.ly/x770n1f https://dai.ly/x770n1f
areejs 7y ago
Well they were loosing a lot of money over the falling NAND prices
tyopiuy 7y ago
I would have preferred to see this happening to the dram cartel, who actually did fix prices.
- davemp 7y ago
  Micron and SK Hynix were/are apart of the DRAM cartel.
sara12318 7y ago
World's biggest cat Even you can't believe it's size See her video https://howto105.blogspot.com/2019/04/worlds-biggest-cat.html https://howto105.blogspot.com/2019/04/worlds-biggest-cat.htm... See the video a dog shopping and lots of other acts like humans http://bit.ly/2DCpo9I http://bit.ly/2DCpo9I Fish walking with legs like humans See the video on link below http://bit.ly/2XRGyYD http://bit.ly/2XRGyYD This couple is different Girls are both twins and boys are also twin brothers see how they look in video http://bit.ly/2VwoZQd http://bit.ly/2VwoZQd A cute dog is dancing in video Just watch this video and try to control your laugh http://bit.ly/2ZK1XVs http://bit.ly/2ZK1XVs
solarkraft 7y ago
Does this mean Intel's recently released high capacity SSD line (1 TB at 130€) will become more expensive?
- synack 7y ago
  Those drives are QLC (Quad-Layer Cell) which allows higher density at the cost of long term reliability. Higher density means more bits per wafer, which leads to lower cost per bit.
  - NullPrefix 7y ago
    This also means speeds of 80MB/s once you fill up the SLC cache which is 2GB or so.
- wtallis 7y ago
  It's hard to say exactly what the effect will be on Intel's consumer product line, because it exists primarily to use up leftovers that were discarded from their enterprise/datacenter SSD products. If their yields for QLC NAND get too good, supplies of their consumer QLC drives may largely dry up when most of their QLC makes the cut for enterprise drives.

64 points by deafcalculus 7y ago

All at once? Could be an accident but could be collusion

Questions: 1. Can someone explain why this is not a clear cut of a collusion? Didn't the same "cartel" get busted for this behavior a while ago? 2. Why aren't they under tight regulation since they have a history of doing this?

tooltalk 7y ago
because there is no proof of collusion. Absolutely no need for any further regulation.
- mikhailt 7y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing They've pled guilty in the original DRAM price fixing collusion and they just got sued last year for the same charge, it's ongoing. I can only guess that laws are more lenient in Asia and they can only be charged in US after the fact. Edit: removed my opinion about getting sued again as that's off the topic.
  - tooltalk 7y ago
    > They've pled guilty in the original DRAM price fixing collusion and they just got sued last year for the same charge, it's ongoing. Now you are making stuff up. We are in 2018, not 2006. There is no regulatory investigation by any gov't antitrust agency. China's NDRC announced that they had "massive evidence" of price fixing by Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix, in 2018. It turned out they had nothing, so instead they tried to blackmail Samsung and SK Hynix to drop all pending and future patent lawsuits against China's domestic companies in exchange for dropping a multibillion dollar fine and antitrust violation that they couldn't prove. You clearly haven't read the class-action lawsuit by Hagens Berman in which the law firm alleges that the memory companies "coordinated" by signaling each other via PR. Do you understand why the class lawsuit is not going anywhere?
    - mikhailt 7y ago
      Please provide sources to the NDRC case, that's why I asked in the first place about why this isn't collusion. My understanding is limited to the original 2006 case where these companies were in fact charged and fined by Department of Justice, that's not a made up story and I provided the source to that. Telling me "no proof of collusion" without any source is the same as making stuff up. Technically, we're in 2019 but that's off the topic.
      - tooltalk 7y ago
        Google "china ndrc dram price fixing -digitimes" If you are citing Wiki, you probably know very little about the older 2006 case. You seem to make haste assumption on what, how, and who are involed this time around without any facts or understanding claims made by different parties. > Telling me "no proof of collusion" without any source is the same as making stuff up. You are the one making accusation against the DRAM makers of price-fixing, it's your obligation to prove your allegations. The burden of proof is not on me to prove the negative (which is a logical fallacy).
        mises 7y ago
        I am highly suspicious of China's motivation for this. It happened at roughly the same time as news broke that the chinese stole Micron's technology. China is not exactly known for good or fair practices, and it would not be the first time they screwed over a foreign competitor and stole their tech to make a competitor.
  - ComplexSystems 7y ago
    Wow. Looks like all five manufacturers pled guilty in the original US case. Given that the suit from last year is ongoing, this seems to be a real problem in this industry.

reacharavindh 7y ago

> three major manufacturers of NAND memory — Intel, Micron, and SK Hynix — have announced that they will be taking measures to address the oversupply Isn't that illegal? To fix the market by colluding and price fixing? How is this different from the act that Mercedes, BMW and VW are getting fined for for colluding to not release emissions tech?

tooltalk 7y ago
it's illegal if and only if it can be proven that they coordinated their production cut. They all respond to the same changing market conditions -- they can't just continue increasing their production when the price continues its downward spiral. Further, the largest producer Samsung hasn't joined the foray yet according to the article. Samsung is a big variable in this -- the company's expansion created the memory glut that drove the whole industry to record loss in 2015-2016. The EU's antitrust authority claims that the automakers "coordinated" strategies to limit competition. This is probably not the case here.
- mises 7y ago
  It is possible that Samsung will not do so. It's the same problem that would have affected them had they actually colluded: each player has incentive to wait until others have cut production/raised price and maintain their own. Handy way to snap up market share. Every one loves to scream "price fixing!", but it's not easy to do and almost always collapses.
- wnevets 7y ago
  >This is probably not the case here. Why do we think that? Hasn't these companies and/or industry been caught and fined for illegally coordinating their efforts before?
  - tooltalk 7y ago
    Well, one of the reasons is that that's what we've expected all along. When Samsung announced a major expansion in early 2010's, many analysts predicted the price glut in 2015-16 that followed. That memory price glut (and a record loss by all industry participants) in turn discouraged capex by memory makers that resulted in the 2017-18 boom we just witnessed. So now, the windfall during the last boom likewise encouraged higher capex and production increase that is now driving down the price and their bottom line again -- the industry nearly completes a full cycle and is at another trough marked by decrease in capex and production cut. There is really nothing too conspiratorial about this business cycle. Sure, I think every memory makers at one point got caught price-fixing, but you can't just say they are colluding again just because they are all cutting production under unfavorable market condition (ie, lower demand/falling price).

microcolonel 7y ago

Buy Samsung NAND, it's good and they keep making it.

Rafuino 7y ago
They were the first to cut back supply. I'm guessing you work for them? https://www.techspot.com/news/79303-micron-follows-samsung-reducing-nand-dram-production-wake.html https://www.techspot.com/news/79303-micron-follows-samsung-r... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-30/samsung-profit-misses-estimates-as-chip-demand-slides https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-30/samsung-p...

Emily4737 7y ago

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areejs 7y ago

Well they were loosing a lot of money over the falling NAND prices

tyopiuy 7y ago

I would have preferred to see this happening to the dram cartel, who actually did fix prices.

davemp 7y ago
Micron and SK Hynix were/are apart of the DRAM cartel.

sara12318 7y ago

World's biggest cat Even you can't believe it's size See her video https://howto105.blogspot.com/2019/04/worlds-biggest-cat.html https://howto105.blogspot.com/2019/04/worlds-biggest-cat.htm... See the video a dog shopping and lots of other acts like humans http://bit.ly/2DCpo9I http://bit.ly/2DCpo9I Fish walking with legs like humans See the video on link below http://bit.ly/2XRGyYD http://bit.ly/2XRGyYD This couple is different Girls are both twins and boys are also twin brothers see how they look in video http://bit.ly/2VwoZQd http://bit.ly/2VwoZQd A cute dog is dancing in video Just watch this video and try to control your laugh http://bit.ly/2ZK1XVs http://bit.ly/2ZK1XVs

solarkraft 7y ago

Does this mean Intel's recently released high capacity SSD line (1 TB at 130€) will become more expensive?

synack 7y ago
Those drives are QLC (Quad-Layer Cell) which allows higher density at the cost of long term reliability. Higher density means more bits per wafer, which leads to lower cost per bit.
- NullPrefix 7y ago
  This also means speeds of 80MB/s once you fill up the SLC cache which is 2GB or so.
wtallis 7y ago
It's hard to say exactly what the effect will be on Intel's consumer product line, because it exists primarily to use up leftovers that were discarded from their enterprise/datacenter SSD products. If their yields for QLC NAND get too good, supplies of their consumer QLC drives may largely dry up when most of their QLC makes the cut for enterprise drives.