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I suspect it would be a total loss. But rationally it seems like a really unlikely thing to happen. Tesla just made a $920 million payment in March, they have

by sliken 8y ago

I suspect it would be a total loss. But rationally it seems like a really unlikely thing to happen. Tesla just made a $920 million payment in March, they have a 20% gross margin, and have $2.2B cash on hand. Sure they may have to slow their growth, or take out another loan, but Tesla is hardly at the brink of bankruptcy. There are some serious competitors targeting the model S and X coming, although none I've heard come anywhere close to 370 mile range. Most impressively even those with similar size battery (like the 95kwh audi etron) only manage 56% of the range of the model S (100 kwh). It's also substantially slower in acceleration (Telsa is 4.0 second vs Audi e-tron 5.5 seconds). But the model 3/Y competition in the $40k to $60k range is looking significantly more sparse, especially with similar range. This is where Tesla becomes significantly harder to match because if even if you can match the size of the battery, matching the efficiency is tougher. Running a substantially larger battery to make up for lower efficiency is particularly problematic at this price point.

Brakenshire 8y ago
> But the model 3/Y competition in the $40k to $60k range is looking significantly more sparse, especially with similar range. E-tron Q4?
- sliken 8y ago
  E-tron is $74,800 and a range of 204 miles. Model Y starts at $48k and has a range of 300 miles. Doesn't seem like a fair comparison, does it? A fairer comparison would be the model S. The Model S base is $78,000 ($3,200 more), but has a range of 285 miles (1.4x the Audi) and 0-60 in 4.0 seconds instead of 5.5 seconds for the Audi. The biggest issue is the Audi seems to have very poor efficiency. So you need a model S size battery (95kw) to compete with the model Y (75 kwh or so). Or you compete with the Tesla model S with a 100 kwh battery and end up with only 71% of the range.
  - Brakenshire 8y ago
    I'm talking about the E-Tron Q4, which is a different model from the E-Tron.
    - sliken 8y ago
      Ah, interesting, it does look much more competitive. More range, less cost, and better acceleration, looks like a direct Model Y competitor. However it's still called a concept vehicle by Audi, couldn't find any mention on a planned availability date.
      - Brakenshire 8y ago
        This says late next year, although looks like it’s just a briefing rather than a formal announcement: https://www.whatcar.com/news/2020-audi-q4-e-tron-electric-suv-revealed-price-specs-and-release-date/n19003 https://www.whatcar.com/news/2020-audi-q4-e-tron-electric-su... No formal price yet either so could be significantly more expensive.
michaelt 8y ago
even those with similar size battery (like the 95kwh audi etron) only manage 56% of the range of the model S (100 kwh). I suspect that's because Tesla have had batteries on the road for much longer than Audi, meaning they've got better data to base the battery-life-vs-discharge-depth trade-off on. After all, everyone's worried about how degraded their batteries will be after 10 years, and there's no better way to get hard data on that than having EVs on the market for 10 years. But the model 3/Y competition in the $40k to $60k range is looking significantly more sparse There's the Hyundai Kona Electric, with 258 miles for $37k-$45k. But I agree one car isn't a lot of competition :)
- sliken 8y ago
  Closer. No supercharging network, tiny screen (7" vs 15"), no AWD, slower (0-60 in 7.6 vs 5.5 seconds). At least the range is close (258 vs 300). Tesla does pretty well on safety (passive and active) as well. My main concern was did Hyundai skimp on the cooling and battery management system like Nissan did with the leaf. The result with leaf was rapidly degrading batteries that lost more than 25% in the first 3 years. Tesla's in comparison often manage 92% of new range after 150k miles. With all that said, it does look like the Kona Electric is the closest model Y competitor I've found.
  - threeseed 8y ago
    No evidence that consumers want a large screen instead of physical knobs. And seriously who on earth cares about acceleration beyond a certain point. I mean come on. Nobody is drag racing their car on the way to the supermarket to buy groceries.
    - sliken 8y ago
      If Elon called me up and asked how to improve the model 3 (or future model Y), I'd definitely mention a few more buttons, or maybe a dial. Sure I want buttons, knobs, AND a big screen... but not enough to pay $80k and up for a model S. So given the choice between a model 3 and the competitors (ICE or electric) I have a hard time finding something better. I'm hoping there's a model Y killer out before the model Y ships, but if not I think I'll be really happy in a Y. As for the acceleration. I'm married and have a kid. I drive pretty conservatively. I haven't had an accident of any kind or even a speeding ticket in 20 years. I did however find numerous occasions to floor the model S I was renting and every time it resulted in a huge grin. I'd wouldn't trade that acceleration for say a Hyundai electric that has a 0-60 in 7.6 seconds just for some extra knobs/buttons. Nor is the Hyundai cheap, starts around $38k. In a traditional ICE car the acceleration has significant down sides, cost, MPG, noise, weight, size, packaging efficiency, etc. On a Tesla the acceleration there's not nearly as much of a downside.
threeseed 8y ago
Ordinary people aren't buying cars today based purely on MPG so why do people think range, battery efficiency etc is going to be a primary reason in future ? It's far more likely to be just one of many factors. And Tesla really isn't great in many of them e.g. interior design, build quality, easy of service, product availability, brand cachet, etc. And now they have to worry if Tesla will even be around in 5-10 years.
- sliken 8y ago
  Agreed. But Tesla IS doing really well on what consumers care about. Search for "Tesla owners are more satisfied than any other auto brand's, according to Consumer Reports" or similar articles. Especially for first time electric car buyers, they really do seem rather worried about moving from a 488 mile range (like a honda accord) to a 240-370 mile range (Tesla). I suspect mostly because they haven't internalized the impact of being able to start each day with a full "tank".
  - threeseed 8y ago
    That report does not measure what consumers care about. It simply measures what Tesla owners think. And those owners tend to come from a very narrow demographic which is unrepresentative of the general public. And yes people are worried about the difference in range given it's a new technology. But no evidence it significantly influences purchasing decisions especially given that most people aren't driving hundreds of miles in a day.
    - sliken 8y ago
      I agree, but it's not such a narrow demographic. 63,000 bought them in Q1. The mode similar luxury/premium car I can find is the BMW 3 series. BMW sold 8,225 of them in Q1. So almost 8x as many people bought a model 3 for similar or higher prices than the BMW 3 series. In fact at various time periods Tesla was outselling the sum of all similar premium cars in the USA from BMW, MB, Audi, and Lexus. So sure Tesla owners are a self selecting set, but there's apparently quite a few people that want the model 3.
  - 8y ago
lazyjones 8y ago
> This is where Tesla becomes significantly harder to match because if even if you can match the size of the battery, matching the efficiency is tougher. The established car makers also have to bear the cost of having dealerships. I don't find it too unlikely that some of them are selling their EV at a loss and have the production throttled accordingly.

by sliken 8y ago

Brakenshire 8y ago

> But the model 3/Y competition in the $40k to $60k range is looking significantly more sparse, especially with similar range. E-tron Q4?

sliken 8y ago
E-tron is $74,800 and a range of 204 miles. Model Y starts at $48k and has a range of 300 miles. Doesn't seem like a fair comparison, does it? A fairer comparison would be the model S. The Model S base is $78,000 ($3,200 more), but has a range of 285 miles (1.4x the Audi) and 0-60 in 4.0 seconds instead of 5.5 seconds for the Audi. The biggest issue is the Audi seems to have very poor efficiency. So you need a model S size battery (95kw) to compete with the model Y (75 kwh or so). Or you compete with the Tesla model S with a 100 kwh battery and end up with only 71% of the range.
- Brakenshire 8y ago
  I'm talking about the E-Tron Q4, which is a different model from the E-Tron.
  - sliken 8y ago
    Ah, interesting, it does look much more competitive. More range, less cost, and better acceleration, looks like a direct Model Y competitor. However it's still called a concept vehicle by Audi, couldn't find any mention on a planned availability date.
    - Brakenshire 8y ago
      This says late next year, although looks like it’s just a briefing rather than a formal announcement: https://www.whatcar.com/news/2020-audi-q4-e-tron-electric-suv-revealed-price-specs-and-release-date/n19003 https://www.whatcar.com/news/2020-audi-q4-e-tron-electric-su... No formal price yet either so could be significantly more expensive.

michaelt 8y ago

even those with similar size battery (like the 95kwh audi etron) only manage 56% of the range of the model S (100 kwh). I suspect that's because Tesla have had batteries on the road for much longer than Audi, meaning they've got better data to base the battery-life-vs-discharge-depth trade-off on. After all, everyone's worried about how degraded their batteries will be after 10 years, and there's no better way to get hard data on that than having EVs on the market for 10 years. But the model 3/Y competition in the $40k to $60k range is looking significantly more sparse There's the Hyundai Kona Electric, with 258 miles for $37k-$45k. But I agree one car isn't a lot of competition :)

sliken 8y ago
Closer. No supercharging network, tiny screen (7" vs 15"), no AWD, slower (0-60 in 7.6 vs 5.5 seconds). At least the range is close (258 vs 300). Tesla does pretty well on safety (passive and active) as well. My main concern was did Hyundai skimp on the cooling and battery management system like Nissan did with the leaf. The result with leaf was rapidly degrading batteries that lost more than 25% in the first 3 years. Tesla's in comparison often manage 92% of new range after 150k miles. With all that said, it does look like the Kona Electric is the closest model Y competitor I've found.
- threeseed 8y ago
  No evidence that consumers want a large screen instead of physical knobs. And seriously who on earth cares about acceleration beyond a certain point. I mean come on. Nobody is drag racing their car on the way to the supermarket to buy groceries.
  - sliken 8y ago
    If Elon called me up and asked how to improve the model 3 (or future model Y), I'd definitely mention a few more buttons, or maybe a dial. Sure I want buttons, knobs, AND a big screen... but not enough to pay $80k and up for a model S. So given the choice between a model 3 and the competitors (ICE or electric) I have a hard time finding something better. I'm hoping there's a model Y killer out before the model Y ships, but if not I think I'll be really happy in a Y. As for the acceleration. I'm married and have a kid. I drive pretty conservatively. I haven't had an accident of any kind or even a speeding ticket in 20 years. I did however find numerous occasions to floor the model S I was renting and every time it resulted in a huge grin. I'd wouldn't trade that acceleration for say a Hyundai electric that has a 0-60 in 7.6 seconds just for some extra knobs/buttons. Nor is the Hyundai cheap, starts around $38k. In a traditional ICE car the acceleration has significant down sides, cost, MPG, noise, weight, size, packaging efficiency, etc. On a Tesla the acceleration there's not nearly as much of a downside.

threeseed 8y ago

Ordinary people aren't buying cars today based purely on MPG so why do people think range, battery efficiency etc is going to be a primary reason in future ? It's far more likely to be just one of many factors. And Tesla really isn't great in many of them e.g. interior design, build quality, easy of service, product availability, brand cachet, etc. And now they have to worry if Tesla will even be around in 5-10 years.

sliken 8y ago
Agreed. But Tesla IS doing really well on what consumers care about. Search for "Tesla owners are more satisfied than any other auto brand's, according to Consumer Reports" or similar articles. Especially for first time electric car buyers, they really do seem rather worried about moving from a 488 mile range (like a honda accord) to a 240-370 mile range (Tesla). I suspect mostly because they haven't internalized the impact of being able to start each day with a full "tank".
- threeseed 8y ago
  That report does not measure what consumers care about. It simply measures what Tesla owners think. And those owners tend to come from a very narrow demographic which is unrepresentative of the general public. And yes people are worried about the difference in range given it's a new technology. But no evidence it significantly influences purchasing decisions especially given that most people aren't driving hundreds of miles in a day.
  - sliken 8y ago
    I agree, but it's not such a narrow demographic. 63,000 bought them in Q1. The mode similar luxury/premium car I can find is the BMW 3 series. BMW sold 8,225 of them in Q1. So almost 8x as many people bought a model 3 for similar or higher prices than the BMW 3 series. In fact at various time periods Tesla was outselling the sum of all similar premium cars in the USA from BMW, MB, Audi, and Lexus. So sure Tesla owners are a self selecting set, but there's apparently quite a few people that want the model 3.
- 8y ago

lazyjones 8y ago

> This is where Tesla becomes significantly harder to match because if even if you can match the size of the battery, matching the efficiency is tougher. The established car makers also have to bear the cost of having dealerships. I don't find it too unlikely that some of them are selling their EV at a loss and have the production throttled accordingly.