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With the model 3 the deposit made a huge difference in delivery time. The production ramp was painfully slow (production hell) becuase it was a completely diff

by sliken 8y ago

With the model 3 the deposit made a huge difference in delivery time. The production ramp was painfully slow (production hell) becuase it was a completely different car than the model S and X that Tesla was producing. Because of the slow ramp the incentive for a deposit was quite large. There was also pretty minimal competition for the model 3, mostly the chevy bolt which most don't really consider in the same class. The production ramp for the Y is expected to be much better than the model 3. There's two announced locations (Reno and China). Tesla also has substantial experience building the model 3, and the Y shared about 75% of the parts. Additionally the model Y is a very conservative design. Same motors, same batteries, same nav, same display, same steering wheel, same seats, same autonomous hardware, same sensors, etc. The announced differences I've heard of are low tech tings like the chassis and suspension. Nothing crazy like the model X gull wing doors to throw a schedule off. Combine that with significant increase in competition from Audi, Volvo, Porsche, Rivian, and others expected in 2020 there's a much less exclusive market for people interested in a small crossover/SUV in 2020. I'd be quite surprised if Tesla doesn't sell every model Y they can make for a good long time, but the world is a really different place than it was when they opened up the model 3 preorders. With that said I did put a deposit down on the Y, it's still my guess at the best small SUV for 2020. If things change I can get a refund.

Waterluvian 8y ago
Your last sentence is what interests me the most. How many people will be out $1000 or $2500 if Tesla goes under? I'm assuming deposits are about as low a priority as you can get for recovering money in a bankruptcy?
- sliken 8y ago
  I suspect it would be a total loss. But rationally it seems like a really unlikely thing to happen. Tesla just made a $920 million payment in March, they have a 20% gross margin, and have $2.2B cash on hand. Sure they may have to slow their growth, or take out another loan, but Tesla is hardly at the brink of bankruptcy. There are some serious competitors targeting the model S and X coming, although none I've heard come anywhere close to 370 mile range. Most impressively even those with similar size battery (like the 95kwh audi etron) only manage 56% of the range of the model S (100 kwh). It's also substantially slower in acceleration (Telsa is 4.0 second vs Audi e-tron 5.5 seconds). But the model 3/Y competition in the $40k to $60k range is looking significantly more sparse, especially with similar range. This is where Tesla becomes significantly harder to match because if even if you can match the size of the battery, matching the efficiency is tougher. Running a substantially larger battery to make up for lower efficiency is particularly problematic at this price point.
  - Brakenshire 8y ago
    > But the model 3/Y competition in the $40k to $60k range is looking significantly more sparse, especially with similar range. E-tron Q4?
    - sliken 8y ago
      E-tron is $74,800 and a range of 204 miles. Model Y starts at $48k and has a range of 300 miles. Doesn't seem like a fair comparison, does it? A fairer comparison would be the model S. The Model S base is $78,000 ($3,200 more), but has a range of 285 miles (1.4x the Audi) and 0-60 in 4.0 seconds instead of 5.5 seconds for the Audi. The biggest issue is the Audi seems to have very poor efficiency. So you need a model S size battery (95kw) to compete with the model Y (75 kwh or so). Or you compete with the Tesla model S with a 100 kwh battery and end up with only 71% of the range.
      - Brakenshire 8y ago
        I'm talking about the E-Tron Q4, which is a different model from the E-Tron.
        sliken 8y ago
        Ah, interesting, it does look much more competitive. More range, less cost, and better acceleration, looks like a direct Model Y competitor. However it's still called a concept vehicle by Audi, couldn't find any mention on a planned availability date.
        Brakenshire 8y ago
        This says late next year, although looks like it’s just a briefing rather than a formal announcement: https://www.whatcar.com/news/2020-audi-q4-e-tron-electric-suv-revealed-price-specs-and-release-date/n19003 https://www.whatcar.com/news/2020-audi-q4-e-tron-electric-su... No formal price yet either so could be significantly more expensive.
  - 8y ago
navigatesol 8y ago
>The production ramp for the Y is expected to be much better than the model 3. There's two announced locations (Reno and China). Tesla also has substantial experience building the model 3, and the Y shared about 75% of the parts. Additionally the model Y is a very conservative design. Same motors, same batteries, same nav, same display, same steering wheel, same seats, same autonomous hardware, same sensors, etc. The announced differences I've heard of are low tech tings like the chassis and suspension. Nothing crazy like the model X gull wing doors to throw a schedule off. So let's see if I have this right: they reveal the Model Y 1.5 months ago, and say it's available in ~1 month of purchasing. From what everyone says, they hacked up a Model 3 and people drove in a prototype. Now we hear Tesla don't even know if they're going to build it in China or California. But don't worry, they've ordered all the tooling and machinery, even though they don't know which factory it'll be built in. I'm am constantly astonished that people still believe what is happening over there. What will it take for people to realize this is a desperate company?
- sliken 8y ago
  Elon's vision is to take over the world automobile market quickly. It's impressively how close he's come. From zero to #1 since 2012 in premium cars is an almost unbelievable achievement. Originally the plan was announced that the model Y would be produced in new assembly lines in Reno, then later the lower end model Ys would be produced in China. However since then the model 3, S, and X demand had dropped significantly, at least in the USA. They are developing markets in the EU, but delivery logistics, safety certifications, dealer networks, and related have delayed things. Reduced tax incentives in the USA have also hurt demand locally. My speculation is that Elon wanted all 4 model 3 assembly model 3 lines in Fremont to stay producing the model 3. But now after Q1 they are considering converting a model 3 line in Fremont to the model Y. This will save significant money since with 75% of the same parts, but of course will reduce model 3 production capacity. How much this makes sense depends on if Panasonic keep up with the battery demand and how much can the new EU model 3 demand make up for the decreasing USA model 3 demand. I suspect there will be related announcements in the next quarter or so. As for desperation. They made $3.7B with a 20% margin and just paid off $920M in convertible bonds. They have $2.2B on hand and sold 63,000 model 3s this quarter. Where's the desperation? They promised a model Y (mostly a model 3 with a bit more ground clearance and a slightly taller chassis) in late 2020. I don't really see a problem. Given that they have set up 4 model 3 lines so far, at least one model Y line in 1.5 years seems pretty reasonable.

by sliken 8y ago

Waterluvian 8y ago

Your last sentence is what interests me the most. How many people will be out $1000 or $2500 if Tesla goes under? I'm assuming deposits are about as low a priority as you can get for recovering money in a bankruptcy?

sliken 8y ago
I suspect it would be a total loss. But rationally it seems like a really unlikely thing to happen. Tesla just made a $920 million payment in March, they have a 20% gross margin, and have $2.2B cash on hand. Sure they may have to slow their growth, or take out another loan, but Tesla is hardly at the brink of bankruptcy. There are some serious competitors targeting the model S and X coming, although none I've heard come anywhere close to 370 mile range. Most impressively even those with similar size battery (like the 95kwh audi etron) only manage 56% of the range of the model S (100 kwh). It's also substantially slower in acceleration (Telsa is 4.0 second vs Audi e-tron 5.5 seconds). But the model 3/Y competition in the $40k to $60k range is looking significantly more sparse, especially with similar range. This is where Tesla becomes significantly harder to match because if even if you can match the size of the battery, matching the efficiency is tougher. Running a substantially larger battery to make up for lower efficiency is particularly problematic at this price point.
- Brakenshire 8y ago
  > But the model 3/Y competition in the $40k to $60k range is looking significantly more sparse, especially with similar range. E-tron Q4?
  - sliken 8y ago
    E-tron is $74,800 and a range of 204 miles. Model Y starts at $48k and has a range of 300 miles. Doesn't seem like a fair comparison, does it? A fairer comparison would be the model S. The Model S base is $78,000 ($3,200 more), but has a range of 285 miles (1.4x the Audi) and 0-60 in 4.0 seconds instead of 5.5 seconds for the Audi. The biggest issue is the Audi seems to have very poor efficiency. So you need a model S size battery (95kw) to compete with the model Y (75 kwh or so). Or you compete with the Tesla model S with a 100 kwh battery and end up with only 71% of the range.
    - Brakenshire 8y ago
      I'm talking about the E-Tron Q4, which is a different model from the E-Tron.
      - sliken 8y ago
        Ah, interesting, it does look much more competitive. More range, less cost, and better acceleration, looks like a direct Model Y competitor. However it's still called a concept vehicle by Audi, couldn't find any mention on a planned availability date.
        Brakenshire 8y ago
        This says late next year, although looks like it’s just a briefing rather than a formal announcement: https://www.whatcar.com/news/2020-audi-q4-e-tron-electric-suv-revealed-price-specs-and-release-date/n19003 https://www.whatcar.com/news/2020-audi-q4-e-tron-electric-su... No formal price yet either so could be significantly more expensive.
- 8y ago

navigatesol 8y ago

>The production ramp for the Y is expected to be much better than the model 3. There's two announced locations (Reno and China). Tesla also has substantial experience building the model 3, and the Y shared about 75% of the parts. Additionally the model Y is a very conservative design. Same motors, same batteries, same nav, same display, same steering wheel, same seats, same autonomous hardware, same sensors, etc. The announced differences I've heard of are low tech tings like the chassis and suspension. Nothing crazy like the model X gull wing doors to throw a schedule off. So let's see if I have this right: they reveal the Model Y 1.5 months ago, and say it's available in ~1 month of purchasing. From what everyone says, they hacked up a Model 3 and people drove in a prototype. Now we hear Tesla don't even know if they're going to build it in China or California. But don't worry, they've ordered all the tooling and machinery, even though they don't know which factory it'll be built in. I'm am constantly astonished that people still believe what is happening over there. What will it take for people to realize this is a desperate company?

sliken 8y ago
Elon's vision is to take over the world automobile market quickly. It's impressively how close he's come. From zero to #1 since 2012 in premium cars is an almost unbelievable achievement. Originally the plan was announced that the model Y would be produced in new assembly lines in Reno, then later the lower end model Ys would be produced in China. However since then the model 3, S, and X demand had dropped significantly, at least in the USA. They are developing markets in the EU, but delivery logistics, safety certifications, dealer networks, and related have delayed things. Reduced tax incentives in the USA have also hurt demand locally. My speculation is that Elon wanted all 4 model 3 assembly model 3 lines in Fremont to stay producing the model 3. But now after Q1 they are considering converting a model 3 line in Fremont to the model Y. This will save significant money since with 75% of the same parts, but of course will reduce model 3 production capacity. How much this makes sense depends on if Panasonic keep up with the battery demand and how much can the new EU model 3 demand make up for the decreasing USA model 3 demand. I suspect there will be related announcements in the next quarter or so. As for desperation. They made $3.7B with a 20% margin and just paid off $920M in convertible bonds. They have $2.2B on hand and sold 63,000 model 3s this quarter. Where's the desperation? They promised a model Y (mostly a model 3 with a bit more ground clearance and a slightly taller chassis) in late 2020. I don't really see a problem. Given that they have set up 4 model 3 lines so far, at least one model Y line in 1.5 years seems pretty reasonable.