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I find the Panasonic thing very weird. Tesla claims to be battery limited, and also mentioned that their popular and in demand power walls are being throttled

by sliken 8y ago

I find the Panasonic thing very weird. Tesla claims to be battery limited, and also mentioned that their popular and in demand power walls are being throttled by lack of batteries. Does make me wonder. Is Panasonic blackmailing Tesla with limited supply to influence Tesla's battery supply in China? Is Panasonic and/or Tesla lying about the situation?

nihonde 8y ago
My take: Panasonic is moving its chips from Tesla to Toyota/Mazda and betting the incumbent Japanese makers will be better positioned to capitalize on EV sales over the long term. It’s not strange for a 100+ year old company playing the long game. I also think Tesla’s function for many of its suppliers was to prove that Americans will buy EVs, and their expectations are fairly low about how much more Tesla will accomplish.
- sliken 8y ago
  Well the weird thing is Panasonic is complaining about not selling enough batteries. Seems kinda crazy considering the rapid scale of Tesla's ramp up, not to mention secondary uses like powerwalls and grid sized battery systems.
  - hef19898 8y ago
    I won't speculate why Panasonic is putting the brakes on. Could be anything from financing to some new guy at Panasonic not liking the color choices of the Model Y. But it is telling us something that the most integrated of Tesla's partners is putting on the brakes. And I remember some reports about less then optimal conditions in the giga factory. And these conditions, even if they are only half true, would the opposite of what Japanese companies would like to see
- samstave 8y ago
  Personally; ding ding ding. This is why american MBAs are utter useless garbage.. The asian incumbents in heavy industry are going to own, simply because they are capable and willing to play the long-game. China is pretty much buying all of Africa. They havea 100 year plan. And anyone who isnt aware of that fact, is simply behind the game and already losing. We had a post about KPCB earlier, and good riddance - the arrogance of the SV VC mind and short-term thinking of the US industries are literally what has the US in ruin come 25 years from now.
  - newsoul2019 8y ago
    This reminds me of the late 1980s when America was on the decline and the Japanese were buying everything and the end was in sight.
    - shereadsthenews 8y ago
      People who did not experience the 80s, and the endless nightly news stories about Japanese school kids’ math test scores, will not understand your comment.
    - Udik 8y ago
      Japan is a small, rich and overpopulated country of 126 million; China is a still emerging, vast country of 1.4 billion. I don't think it's correct to assume history will repeat the same way as with Japan.
dragontamer 8y ago
> Panasonic blackmailing Tesla Its way simpler than that. https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/data/2019/02/en190228-7/en190228-7-1.pdf https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/data/2019/02/en19022... Yoshio Ito was a well known pro-Tesla executive, and was in charge of the Panasonic automotive division until March 31st (EDIT: Typo). His replacement is neutral-Tesla at best (based on the actions of the new Panasonic director) Mr. Ito was the original Panasonic executive who signed the Tesla deal for the Gigafactory in Nevada. Mr. Ito's departure from Panasonic is a big deal in the Tesla-Panasonic relationship. In effect: the Panasonic executive in charge of the Gigafactory has retired, so things will be dramatically different as his replacement tries to make his mark on the company.
taneq 8y ago
They may just be taking a calmer view of EV demand rather than betting the farm at every turn like Tesla. One or two quarters of running at capacity on a brand new factory isn't enough reason to massively upgrade your production capacity, if you think it's just a hump and that demand will settle down again. The Model 3 may be "affordable" compared with the Model S / X, but US$35k is still luxury car territory.
- nradov 8y ago
  Just to be pedantic, in the US market $35K is technically the low end of premium car territory. Actually luxury car territory starts significant higher.
  - wil421 8y ago
    Significantly higher? A brand new 3 series is 40k, an Audi A4 is 39k, and a C Class is 41k. I’m not even looking at the smaller 4 door models from Audi and Benz which are even less than the Model 3. Maybe Europe gets a smaller 4 door BMW. I didn’t even count the offerings from Japan which are even less.
    - nradov 8y ago
      An Audi A4 is really not a luxury vehicle in any meaningful sense.
      - wil421 8y ago
        That’s a pretty laughable statement unless you’re in Europe and get the lower trims we don’t. Pretty much all car reviews put the A4 in the luxury sedan segment[1]. Not the segment with the Accord or Camry. Following your logic the model 3 isn’t a luxury car either. [1]https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15379432/small-entry-level-luxury-cars/ https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15379432/small-entry-...
        arethuza 8y ago
foota 8y ago
I read that the plant is operating way below what the capacity should be, so this could be a reflection of them trying to improve on their utilization of what they have now instead of throwing money at the problem.
- karkisuni 8y ago
  That was the explanation Elon gave via twitter: "Pana cell lines at Giga are only at ~24GWh/yr & have been a constraint on Model 3 output since July [...] Tesla won’t spend money on more capacity until existing lines get closer to 35GWh theoretical." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1117144865299501056 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1117144865299501056 Not sure I understand the difference in costs between 2 lines at full capacity vs 3 lines at 66% capacity. Obviously 3 lines is an extra 50% on hardware cost, but what's the cost of time to refine and make mistakes (not to mention the lost revenue on producing more cars) on the last 33% capacity? Apparently Elon would rather get closer to 100%.
  - hef19898 8y ago
    From a cost perspective two lines at 90%+ are better then three at 66%. But considering that Panasonic is putting the brakes on might as well be the result rather than the cause of Tesla's struggles.
_pmf_ 8y ago
> Is Panasonic and/or Tesla lying about the situation? Panasonic makes rational business decisions. Tesla is being Tesla.
- sliken 8y ago
  Well Panasonic is claiming Tesla is not buying enough batteries and they are taking profit warnings as a result. Tesla is claiming that they are battery supply limited and would ship more powerwalls and cars if they had more. Not clear that Tesla's car production doesn't have other bottlenecks, but it does seem weird that Tesla doesn't sell more powerwalls, if the supply was there. Seems most likely some political maneuvering to try to get Tesla to commit to Panasonic batteries at other locations. Or just incompetence on one or both sides.
bryanlarsen 8y ago
The current gigafactory build-out should be able to produce at 35 GWh/year but is currently producing at 24 GWh/year. It wouldn't be surprising if Panasonic halted expansion of the lines to concentrate efforts on fixing problems with current lines. But rather than admitting problems they tried to spin it with a weird press release. Both statements can be true. Tesla is battery limited at 24 GWh/year, and Panasonic says they can meet current demands at 35 GWh/year.
rdtfjgykh 8y ago
My guess is that Tesla is not buying enough batteries to make it profitable for Panasonic. They can endure losses for so long before bailing.

by sliken 8y ago

nihonde 8y ago

My take: Panasonic is moving its chips from Tesla to Toyota/Mazda and betting the incumbent Japanese makers will be better positioned to capitalize on EV sales over the long term. It’s not strange for a 100+ year old company playing the long game. I also think Tesla’s function for many of its suppliers was to prove that Americans will buy EVs, and their expectations are fairly low about how much more Tesla will accomplish.

sliken 8y ago
Well the weird thing is Panasonic is complaining about not selling enough batteries. Seems kinda crazy considering the rapid scale of Tesla's ramp up, not to mention secondary uses like powerwalls and grid sized battery systems.
- hef19898 8y ago
  I won't speculate why Panasonic is putting the brakes on. Could be anything from financing to some new guy at Panasonic not liking the color choices of the Model Y. But it is telling us something that the most integrated of Tesla's partners is putting on the brakes. And I remember some reports about less then optimal conditions in the giga factory. And these conditions, even if they are only half true, would the opposite of what Japanese companies would like to see
samstave 8y ago
Personally; ding ding ding. This is why american MBAs are utter useless garbage.. The asian incumbents in heavy industry are going to own, simply because they are capable and willing to play the long-game. China is pretty much buying all of Africa. They havea 100 year plan. And anyone who isnt aware of that fact, is simply behind the game and already losing. We had a post about KPCB earlier, and good riddance - the arrogance of the SV VC mind and short-term thinking of the US industries are literally what has the US in ruin come 25 years from now.
- newsoul2019 8y ago
  This reminds me of the late 1980s when America was on the decline and the Japanese were buying everything and the end was in sight.
  - shereadsthenews 8y ago
    People who did not experience the 80s, and the endless nightly news stories about Japanese school kids’ math test scores, will not understand your comment.
  - Udik 8y ago
    Japan is a small, rich and overpopulated country of 126 million; China is a still emerging, vast country of 1.4 billion. I don't think it's correct to assume history will repeat the same way as with Japan.

dragontamer 8y ago

> Panasonic blackmailing Tesla Its way simpler than that. https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/data/2019/02/en190228-7/en190228-7-1.pdf https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/data/2019/02/en19022... Yoshio Ito was a well known pro-Tesla executive, and was in charge of the Panasonic automotive division until March 31st (EDIT: Typo). His replacement is neutral-Tesla at best (based on the actions of the new Panasonic director) Mr. Ito was the original Panasonic executive who signed the Tesla deal for the Gigafactory in Nevada. Mr. Ito's departure from Panasonic is a big deal in the Tesla-Panasonic relationship. In effect: the Panasonic executive in charge of the Gigafactory has retired, so things will be dramatically different as his replacement tries to make his mark on the company.

taneq 8y ago

They may just be taking a calmer view of EV demand rather than betting the farm at every turn like Tesla. One or two quarters of running at capacity on a brand new factory isn't enough reason to massively upgrade your production capacity, if you think it's just a hump and that demand will settle down again. The Model 3 may be "affordable" compared with the Model S / X, but US$35k is still luxury car territory.

nradov 8y ago
Just to be pedantic, in the US market $35K is technically the low end of premium car territory. Actually luxury car territory starts significant higher.
- wil421 8y ago
  Significantly higher? A brand new 3 series is 40k, an Audi A4 is 39k, and a C Class is 41k. I’m not even looking at the smaller 4 door models from Audi and Benz which are even less than the Model 3. Maybe Europe gets a smaller 4 door BMW. I didn’t even count the offerings from Japan which are even less.
  - nradov 8y ago
    An Audi A4 is really not a luxury vehicle in any meaningful sense.
    - wil421 8y ago
      That’s a pretty laughable statement unless you’re in Europe and get the lower trims we don’t. Pretty much all car reviews put the A4 in the luxury sedan segment[1]. Not the segment with the Accord or Camry. Following your logic the model 3 isn’t a luxury car either. [1]https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15379432/small-entry-level-luxury-cars/ https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15379432/small-entry-...
      - arethuza 8y ago

foota 8y ago

I read that the plant is operating way below what the capacity should be, so this could be a reflection of them trying to improve on their utilization of what they have now instead of throwing money at the problem.

karkisuni 8y ago
That was the explanation Elon gave via twitter: "Pana cell lines at Giga are only at ~24GWh/yr & have been a constraint on Model 3 output since July [...] Tesla won’t spend money on more capacity until existing lines get closer to 35GWh theoretical." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1117144865299501056 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1117144865299501056 Not sure I understand the difference in costs between 2 lines at full capacity vs 3 lines at 66% capacity. Obviously 3 lines is an extra 50% on hardware cost, but what's the cost of time to refine and make mistakes (not to mention the lost revenue on producing more cars) on the last 33% capacity? Apparently Elon would rather get closer to 100%.
- hef19898 8y ago
  From a cost perspective two lines at 90%+ are better then three at 66%. But considering that Panasonic is putting the brakes on might as well be the result rather than the cause of Tesla's struggles.

_pmf_ 8y ago

> Is Panasonic and/or Tesla lying about the situation? Panasonic makes rational business decisions. Tesla is being Tesla.

sliken 8y ago
Well Panasonic is claiming Tesla is not buying enough batteries and they are taking profit warnings as a result. Tesla is claiming that they are battery supply limited and would ship more powerwalls and cars if they had more. Not clear that Tesla's car production doesn't have other bottlenecks, but it does seem weird that Tesla doesn't sell more powerwalls, if the supply was there. Seems most likely some political maneuvering to try to get Tesla to commit to Panasonic batteries at other locations. Or just incompetence on one or both sides.

bryanlarsen 8y ago

The current gigafactory build-out should be able to produce at 35 GWh/year but is currently producing at 24 GWh/year. It wouldn't be surprising if Panasonic halted expansion of the lines to concentrate efforts on fixing problems with current lines. But rather than admitting problems they tried to spin it with a weird press release. Both statements can be true. Tesla is battery limited at 24 GWh/year, and Panasonic says they can meet current demands at 35 GWh/year.

rdtfjgykh 8y ago

My guess is that Tesla is not buying enough batteries to make it profitable for Panasonic. They can endure losses for so long before bailing.