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Seems to me that relying too much on Machine Learning for this is actually the real risk, not LIDAR. Tesla's competitors are using ML, but combining it with sen
by cromwellian 8y ago
Seems to me that relying too much on Machine Learning for this is actually the real risk, not LIDAR. Tesla's competitors are using ML, but combining it with sensor fused data from LIDAR, Radar, accurate maps, and visual data. In other words, they're starting from a view of the world with super-human sensing.
Starting from a purely visual domain likely dooms your system to making the same types of mistakes that humans make visually in judgement. At least with accurate maps and LIDAR as backup, you can sanity check output of your visual processing against a map and LIDAR. If your claim is that the map might be out of date, or the LIDAR too low rez, it still helps to err on the size of caution.
In the worst case, the map tells you you can't go somewhere that you're allowed to go. In the case where it says you are allowed to go somewhere were you shouldn't, well your visual system should be telling you not to go there. If it isn't, you're in a lot worse trouble than having a map with flaws.
Likewise, the claims that "LIDAR is expensive" is like claiming EVs are expensive because "batteries are expensive!" If AVs become common, then they'll be a huge demand for LIDAR and the costs will decline. LIDAR costs are already declining. Maybe if Elon took some of Tesla's miracle engineers and had them make a LIDAR, they could not only defeat Nvidia at chip making, but defeat all LIDAR makers as well. (sarcasm) My guess is the real problem with LIDAR is drag and vehicle trim/styling.
At this point, Tesla is basically stuck. They bet big early on a shitty sensor suite before AV technology had been worked out, and wave their hands about how using consumers as guinea pigs to feed them fleet data will magically fix deficiencies in sensors. Well, what if this is a false hope and it doesn't? It would mean they'd get sued by everyone who bought the AV suite as an option and have to issue refunds or recalls to upgrade.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, you don't ship AV as an MVP on a $100k vehicle and promise magic upgrades and fixes later before the technology is even close. It's risking people's lives and it's already killed people.
- andbberger 8y agoIndeed, Tesla is on the wrong side of history in sticking to their guns on pure vision autonomy. And they're going to kill people. It's hard enough already to communicate to the public in any meaningful sense ML results without #SKYNET brigading, Tesla is going to make it 100x harder dragging us all through their mud. I think at this point (of having been a matrix boi long enough) I am allowed to publicly state my belief that we are very very very far away from human-level visual perception. Just staggeringly, incomprehensibly far. We've just barely started to be able to do the most basic things, sometimes. Is it an incredible amount of collective dunning-kruger that is blinding tesla? Or perhaps willful ignorance?
- derpherp 8y agoI agree with all your points. However, Musk did mention that his team at SpaceX built their own LIDAR for docking with ISS. I think Tesla can custom make their own LIDAR too. And I would secretly look forward to. I was part of a self-driving team at university and we had to raise funds especially to be able to afford a Velodyne HDL-32.