6 ms·

You forgot to include significant details about Fukushima's old and unsafe design and location in comparison to the world and the future. This makes it seem lik

You forgot to include significant details about Fukushima's old and unsafe design and location in comparison to the world and the future. This makes it seem like nuclear power can't be safe, that is not true (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_IV_reactor https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_IV_reactor). I downvoted you.

pfdietz 8y ago
I think you're also supposed to be complaining about how all the newer regulations drive up costs. Because doing that, and blowing off Fukushima as old designs, is part of the total pro-nuclear talking point package.
- TomMarius 8y ago
  Gen IV reactors are economical even with the added regulation. I'm complaining about stupid people lobbying against nuclear, not understanding what they are talking about.
  - pfdietz 8y ago
    Uh huh. Because past promises of what nuclear reactors would cost have been so on-target. At this point, I will believe a new generation of reactors is cheap and wonderful only after N of them have been built, costs have not exploded, and the maker isn't in bankruptcy. The implication that stupid people are the ones lobbying against nuclear is deplorable. I'd argue the shoe is on the other foot. Nuclear's cost disease renders continued pursuit of the technology very difficult to justify.
    - Recurecur 8y ago
      > The implication that stupid people are the ones lobbying against nuclear is deplorable. Most often it's ignorance and not stupidity. > I'd argue the shoe is on the other foot. Nuclear's cost disease renders continued pursuit of the technology very difficult to justify. Nuclear's "cost disease" is a function of an industry that, for one thing, functions a lot like the dinosaur space launch companies (ULA). Somehow SpaceX came along and completely disrupted things. The small, agile companies pursuing small modular nuclear reactors are a lot like SpaceX. Probably the most disruptive idea is that of building the reactors at factories, and then transporting and installing them with little additional work. That avoids the entire red tape and risk of one-off construction, and affords economies of scale. Since there's a very effective and strident anti-nuclear lobby here in the US, these companies will get started elsewhere. Keep an eye on ThorCon, X-Energy, Terrapower, and NuScale. > According to IAEA, there are 50 designs or concepts in various development or planning stages around the world, with four in advanced construction in Argentina, Russia, and China. https://www.scottmadden.com/reports/V17_I2/EIU_V17_I2_2017_Digital.pdf https://www.scottmadden.com/reports/V17_I2/EIU_V17_I2_2017_D...
      - pfdietz 8y ago
        Funny, much of the ignorance I see is on the pro-nuclear side. Like claims nuclear is the cheapest source of energy, when the facts are painfully otherwise. SpaceX operates by testing a lot and blowing things up. You're not getting that with nuclear. The SMR makers have not delivered much; the closest to delivery, NuScale, is not giving cost improvements that will be sufficient to turn nuclear's ebbing tide.
        Recurecur 8y ago
        > Funny, much of the ignorance I see is on the pro-nuclear side. Like claims nuclear is the cheapest source of energy, when the facts are painfully otherwise. And what "facts" would those be, exactly...? Let's start with the incentive to mess with nuclear at all, beginning with the cost of fuel. >> A modern American light-water reactor has a fuel burnup in the neighborhood of 45 GWd / MTU (45 billion watt-days per metric ton uranium). So, a metric ton of uranium produces 4.5 billion Watt-days, or 108 GWH. By contrast, a metric ton of natural gas produces 15.2 million Watt-hours, or 0.0152 GWH. That means a ton of uranium produces 7,105 times the energy of a ton of natural gas. A ton of uranium costs about $1,400. A ton of natural gas costs about $150. That means the natural gas equivalent of a ton of uranium would cost $150 x 7,105, or about $1,070,000. That looks like a pretty big incentive. The other is the zero CO2 issue, with nuclear being the only, sole, solitary, single, scalable, existing reliable source of zero CO2 energy. I hope I don't need to explain why that's relevant. > SpaceX operates by testing a lot and blowing things up. SpaceX has an exemplerary safety record. More misinformation... > You're not getting that with nuclear. The SMR makers have not delivered much; the closest to delivery, NuScale, is not giving cost improvements that will be sufficient to turn nuclear's ebbing tide. ThorCon is estimating to-the-plug electricty costs of three to five cents per KWH. That's vastly cheaper than any "green" electricity source, and better than any alternative in most locations. Nuclear done sanely is at least competitive with fossil fuels, and is the only scalable, reliable source of zero-CO2 electricity. Having enough grid storage to (usually) make it through low output periods for wind and solar is nothing beyond wildest fantasy at this point. Nuclear power is a necessity if a very low CO2 trajectory is required.
    - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
      > At this point, I will believe a new generation of reactors is cheap and wonderful only after N of them have been built, costs have not exploded, and the maker isn't in bankruptcy. So the catch 22 then. Don't build newer reactors until you prove something that requires building them to prove. > Nuclear's cost disease renders continued pursuit of the technology very difficult to justify. Why isn't the solution analyzing where the money is going so that the wasteful expenses can be eliminated then? (Note that one of the major ones is regulatory requirements changing during construction, which is an entirely politically-driven cost.)
      - pfdietz 8y ago
        The nuclear industry has a proven track record of blowing through cost estimates. You'd have to be quite the mark to fall for it again. > Why isn't the solution analyzing where the money is going so that the wasteful expenses can be eliminated then? Why do you think that hasn't been tried? You seem to have the preconception that there must be some way for nuclear to live up to your expectations for it, despite all the evidence that it can't and won't.
        acidburnNSA 8y ago
        > despite all the evidence that it can't and won't. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that the Earth's natural nuclear fuel resources can find a way to be effectively used by humanity. We've done an OK job at it so far. It's relatively safe. It's very low-carbon, and it has been making ~60% of the USA's carbon free energy for a few decades. Not a bad track record. But it's a bit too expensive. So we just have to figure out ways to make it cheaper. This certainly doesn't seem insurmountable. I don't think a "can't and won't" curse is at all warranted.
        pfdietz 8y ago
        What are these reasons to be optimistic? Experience is that nuclear is big and complicated, and doesn't produce good experience effects. Technologies that experience rapid improvement tend to be things that involve small items produced in high volume, with rapid design iteration. I think nuclear energy optimism is largely based on wishful thinking.
  - inflatableDodo 8y ago
    Here's the new build nuclear for the UK - https://www.niauk.org/industry-issues/supply-chain/nuclear-new-build-supply-chain/ https://www.niauk.org/industry-issues/supply-chain/nuclear-n... None of these are Gen IV reactors, thought the last two are labelled as gen III+, which looks like the kind of labelling a hopeful chipmaker might slap on a processor when they add some bells and whistles to an existing design. Do you know where any gen IV reactors are being built currently? I hear a lot about them, but they seem mostly to be vapourware. Also, Hinkley C, which is currently under construction, has a strike price so high it will probably be mothballed as soon as it is finished, with an analysis by London stockbrokers Liberum Capital describing it as 'the most expensive conventional power station in the world' and 'economically insane'. This is the new nuclear actually being built. If there is better, safer, cheaper available in gen IV reactors, why is that not under construction instead? If they are available, the UK government will presumably also know about these reactors, yet it is apparently not interested in building them.
imtringued 8y ago
No it's a simple conflict of interest. There are other nuclear power plants in unsafe locations in japan that didn't fail because either the flood wall was bigger or the emergency generators were not placed at a lower altitude than the reactor. There is no money in fixing those plants and therefore it doesn't happen.
- acidburnNSA 8y ago
  Actually lots of money has been spent on upgrades that do just those things in Japan over the past few years. https://blogs.platts.com/2016/03/29/nuclear-safety-upgrades-post-fukushima/ https://blogs.platts.com/2016/03/29/nuclear-safety-upgrades-... "Power companies in Japan are willing to spend billions of dollars on reactor upgrades because they expect the investments will help them reduce substantial costs spent on replacement fossil fuels. Restarting the two Takahama reactors, for example, could save about Yen 10 billion/month for Kansai Electric Power Co., a company spokesman said March 22."

pfdietz 8y ago

I think you're also supposed to be complaining about how all the newer regulations drive up costs. Because doing that, and blowing off Fukushima as old designs, is part of the total pro-nuclear talking point package.

TomMarius 8y ago
Gen IV reactors are economical even with the added regulation. I'm complaining about stupid people lobbying against nuclear, not understanding what they are talking about.
- pfdietz 8y ago
  Uh huh. Because past promises of what nuclear reactors would cost have been so on-target. At this point, I will believe a new generation of reactors is cheap and wonderful only after N of them have been built, costs have not exploded, and the maker isn't in bankruptcy. The implication that stupid people are the ones lobbying against nuclear is deplorable. I'd argue the shoe is on the other foot. Nuclear's cost disease renders continued pursuit of the technology very difficult to justify.
  - Recurecur 8y ago
    > The implication that stupid people are the ones lobbying against nuclear is deplorable. Most often it's ignorance and not stupidity. > I'd argue the shoe is on the other foot. Nuclear's cost disease renders continued pursuit of the technology very difficult to justify. Nuclear's "cost disease" is a function of an industry that, for one thing, functions a lot like the dinosaur space launch companies (ULA). Somehow SpaceX came along and completely disrupted things. The small, agile companies pursuing small modular nuclear reactors are a lot like SpaceX. Probably the most disruptive idea is that of building the reactors at factories, and then transporting and installing them with little additional work. That avoids the entire red tape and risk of one-off construction, and affords economies of scale. Since there's a very effective and strident anti-nuclear lobby here in the US, these companies will get started elsewhere. Keep an eye on ThorCon, X-Energy, Terrapower, and NuScale. > According to IAEA, there are 50 designs or concepts in various development or planning stages around the world, with four in advanced construction in Argentina, Russia, and China. https://www.scottmadden.com/reports/V17_I2/EIU_V17_I2_2017_Digital.pdf https://www.scottmadden.com/reports/V17_I2/EIU_V17_I2_2017_D...
    - pfdietz 8y ago
      Funny, much of the ignorance I see is on the pro-nuclear side. Like claims nuclear is the cheapest source of energy, when the facts are painfully otherwise. SpaceX operates by testing a lot and blowing things up. You're not getting that with nuclear. The SMR makers have not delivered much; the closest to delivery, NuScale, is not giving cost improvements that will be sufficient to turn nuclear's ebbing tide.
      - Recurecur 8y ago
        > Funny, much of the ignorance I see is on the pro-nuclear side. Like claims nuclear is the cheapest source of energy, when the facts are painfully otherwise. And what "facts" would those be, exactly...? Let's start with the incentive to mess with nuclear at all, beginning with the cost of fuel. >> A modern American light-water reactor has a fuel burnup in the neighborhood of 45 GWd / MTU (45 billion watt-days per metric ton uranium). So, a metric ton of uranium produces 4.5 billion Watt-days, or 108 GWH. By contrast, a metric ton of natural gas produces 15.2 million Watt-hours, or 0.0152 GWH. That means a ton of uranium produces 7,105 times the energy of a ton of natural gas. A ton of uranium costs about $1,400. A ton of natural gas costs about $150. That means the natural gas equivalent of a ton of uranium would cost $150 x 7,105, or about $1,070,000. That looks like a pretty big incentive. The other is the zero CO2 issue, with nuclear being the only, sole, solitary, single, scalable, existing reliable source of zero CO2 energy. I hope I don't need to explain why that's relevant. > SpaceX operates by testing a lot and blowing things up. SpaceX has an exemplerary safety record. More misinformation... > You're not getting that with nuclear. The SMR makers have not delivered much; the closest to delivery, NuScale, is not giving cost improvements that will be sufficient to turn nuclear's ebbing tide. ThorCon is estimating to-the-plug electricty costs of three to five cents per KWH. That's vastly cheaper than any "green" electricity source, and better than any alternative in most locations. Nuclear done sanely is at least competitive with fossil fuels, and is the only scalable, reliable source of zero-CO2 electricity. Having enough grid storage to (usually) make it through low output periods for wind and solar is nothing beyond wildest fantasy at this point. Nuclear power is a necessity if a very low CO2 trajectory is required.
  - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
    > At this point, I will believe a new generation of reactors is cheap and wonderful only after N of them have been built, costs have not exploded, and the maker isn't in bankruptcy. So the catch 22 then. Don't build newer reactors until you prove something that requires building them to prove. > Nuclear's cost disease renders continued pursuit of the technology very difficult to justify. Why isn't the solution analyzing where the money is going so that the wasteful expenses can be eliminated then? (Note that one of the major ones is regulatory requirements changing during construction, which is an entirely politically-driven cost.)
    - pfdietz 8y ago
      The nuclear industry has a proven track record of blowing through cost estimates. You'd have to be quite the mark to fall for it again. > Why isn't the solution analyzing where the money is going so that the wasteful expenses can be eliminated then? Why do you think that hasn't been tried? You seem to have the preconception that there must be some way for nuclear to live up to your expectations for it, despite all the evidence that it can't and won't.
      - acidburnNSA 8y ago
        > despite all the evidence that it can't and won't. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that the Earth's natural nuclear fuel resources can find a way to be effectively used by humanity. We've done an OK job at it so far. It's relatively safe. It's very low-carbon, and it has been making ~60% of the USA's carbon free energy for a few decades. Not a bad track record. But it's a bit too expensive. So we just have to figure out ways to make it cheaper. This certainly doesn't seem insurmountable. I don't think a "can't and won't" curse is at all warranted.
        pfdietz 8y ago
        What are these reasons to be optimistic? Experience is that nuclear is big and complicated, and doesn't produce good experience effects. Technologies that experience rapid improvement tend to be things that involve small items produced in high volume, with rapid design iteration. I think nuclear energy optimism is largely based on wishful thinking.
- inflatableDodo 8y ago
  Here's the new build nuclear for the UK - https://www.niauk.org/industry-issues/supply-chain/nuclear-new-build-supply-chain/ https://www.niauk.org/industry-issues/supply-chain/nuclear-n... None of these are Gen IV reactors, thought the last two are labelled as gen III+, which looks like the kind of labelling a hopeful chipmaker might slap on a processor when they add some bells and whistles to an existing design. Do you know where any gen IV reactors are being built currently? I hear a lot about them, but they seem mostly to be vapourware. Also, Hinkley C, which is currently under construction, has a strike price so high it will probably be mothballed as soon as it is finished, with an analysis by London stockbrokers Liberum Capital describing it as 'the most expensive conventional power station in the world' and 'economically insane'. This is the new nuclear actually being built. If there is better, safer, cheaper available in gen IV reactors, why is that not under construction instead? If they are available, the UK government will presumably also know about these reactors, yet it is apparently not interested in building them.

imtringued 8y ago

No it's a simple conflict of interest. There are other nuclear power plants in unsafe locations in japan that didn't fail because either the flood wall was bigger or the emergency generators were not placed at a lower altitude than the reactor. There is no money in fixing those plants and therefore it doesn't happen.

acidburnNSA 8y ago
Actually lots of money has been spent on upgrades that do just those things in Japan over the past few years. https://blogs.platts.com/2016/03/29/nuclear-safety-upgrades-post-fukushima/ https://blogs.platts.com/2016/03/29/nuclear-safety-upgrades-... "Power companies in Japan are willing to spend billions of dollars on reactor upgrades because they expect the investments will help them reduce substantial costs spent on replacement fossil fuels. Restarting the two Takahama reactors, for example, could save about Yen 10 billion/month for Kansai Electric Power Co., a company spokesman said March 22."