4 ms·

For one thing it was very close to the open source estimate, meaning the number is consistent with other publicly known facts about the program. There also isn

For one thing it was very close to the open source estimate, meaning the number is consistent with other publicly known facts about the program. There also isn't any real gain from keeping the total number secret above the advantage that keeping their location secret gives. Not disclosing totals probably doesn't even make napkin level invasion planning harder since at that level reasonable estimates will do. On the other hand it does make you a more suspicious actor in the strategic game as hiding harmless information is a clear sign of paranoia.

pbhjpbhj 8y ago
Keeping totals secret could me maintaining secrecy of some locations -- if your number is much higher than your "enemies" then they're likely to have missed some locations, especially under a backdrop of CND where over-estimation by the state would be politically unhelpful.
- SiempreViernes 8y ago
  How so? You can in principle store a nuke in anything with a roof so you need quite silly numbers before before storage space places any important geographical constraints. Simple considerations on where things have to placed to be on hand for actual use are likely much more useful for locating storage sites; and if you hide a lot of nukes where they can't be accessed in times of need that's just inefficiencies that helps your opponent.
  - xur17 8y ago
    > How so? You can in principle store a nuke in anything with a roof so you need quite silly numbers before before storage space places any important geographical constraints. Because countries monitor their enemies. If Russia publishes that they have 50 nukes, and we know of 5 locations that each have what we estimate to be 10 nukes, we can be pretty confident that we know of all of their storage locations.
    - SiempreViernes 8y ago
      You need five reliable estimates, which a total doesn't give you. In any case, if you have that sort of access to count the nukes in program that small it is simply not plausible that you wouldn't know of all the bases anyway.

pbhjpbhj 8y ago

Keeping totals secret could me maintaining secrecy of some locations -- if your number is much higher than your "enemies" then they're likely to have missed some locations, especially under a backdrop of CND where over-estimation by the state would be politically unhelpful.

SiempreViernes 8y ago
How so? You can in principle store a nuke in anything with a roof so you need quite silly numbers before before storage space places any important geographical constraints. Simple considerations on where things have to placed to be on hand for actual use are likely much more useful for locating storage sites; and if you hide a lot of nukes where they can't be accessed in times of need that's just inefficiencies that helps your opponent.
- xur17 8y ago
  > How so? You can in principle store a nuke in anything with a roof so you need quite silly numbers before before storage space places any important geographical constraints. Because countries monitor their enemies. If Russia publishes that they have 50 nukes, and we know of 5 locations that each have what we estimate to be 10 nukes, we can be pretty confident that we know of all of their storage locations.
  - SiempreViernes 8y ago
    You need five reliable estimates, which a total doesn't give you. In any case, if you have that sort of access to count the nukes in program that small it is simply not plausible that you wouldn't know of all the bases anyway.