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thats why I double downed on my DIS and do not own NFLX; though I wouldn't call someone a fool for owning NFLX. I actually think both have room to grow, just t
by autokad 8y ago
thats why I double downed on my DIS and do not own NFLX; though I wouldn't call someone a fool for owning NFLX. I actually think both have room to grow, just that DIS @ 110$ seemed like a catch
- adventured 8y agoI agree with the Disney premise, it had gotten comically cheap. I think Netflix is worth less than half what it is presently trading for. I'll note I have no position in NFLX (long or short). Most of the valuation is story-based. I'm skeptical the story entirely survives the hard reality of Netflix being drastically outgunned by their three largest competitors. Netflix essentially contends Disney and Apple entering the space full bore won't slow them down, it's an absurd notion to pump to shareholders. If Disney is smart, they'll finish eating Hulu and use it as further value leverage in the Disney+ push. Apple now views such service offerings as critical to their future, so they're likely in it to seriously compete. CBS is worth $19b, with $2.9b in operating income for 2018, compared to $1.6b for Netflix (at a $156b market cap). I like to hold that up as an example of what the medium is often really worth (obviously not meant to be a direct apples to apples comparison between the two). This is especially true once you move beyond some investor fantasies that streaming with monthly subscribers is somehow special. The ever larger capital blackhole of Netflix is a nice demonstration of the hard economic realities in expensive video content production.