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Startups won't win this. Manufacturers will. They have brand, cars, and soon can license the self driving tech. How hard is it for a billion dollar company to r

Startups won't win this. Manufacturers will. They have brand, cars, and soon can license the self driving tech. How hard is it for a billion dollar company to roll out a ride hailing app? Think about where that leaves Uber. They have to buy the cars from said manufacturers. This already gives them a significantly larger cost base and let's face it, while they also have a brand it is no more powerful a draw than Mercedes or Toyota.

wskinner 8y ago
Here's a thought experiment: how hard is it for a billion dollar company to roll out a simple crud app? Easy, right? Now name a single major bank with an app that is better than "barely usable". Which is easier? A crud app or a ride hailing app?
- rorykoehler 8y ago
  All my banks have good apps on par with the fintech startup apps I use (and actually I trust them more because they aren't moving fast and breaking things).
  - HeWhoLurksLate 8y ago
    > and actually I trust them more because they aren't moving fast and breaking things VERY true, not just in finance.
  - wastedhours 8y ago
    Same for me too - my incumbent bank's app is mostly comparable with the latest hot fintech's. The latter has nothing but a slightly more polished visual look, and that's not enough for me to trust them with my paycheck.
  - fuzzybeard 8y ago
    I use a regional bank and their app is only usable for minor day to day things. For that it's fine. But I can't do anything "serious" in it: checking account transactions are limited to only the last 2 weeks; I can't search transactions for a specific amount or merchant or date; I can't view past payments I've made for bills, etc. For any of the above, I have to use the desktop site. These are not technical limitations either and should all be in the app if we want full parity with mobile.
- yellow_postit 8y ago
  Which national US bank or investment company has an app you find “barely usable”? The only one that comes to mind is Vanguard and that fits my mental model they’ve cultivated of keeping costs low on extraneous things so in a perverse way is a positive.
  - underbluewaters 8y ago
    Chase's website is pretty crappy. I regularly have to login twice, or check the developer console to debug why I get infinite loading spinners. This is with a stock and up-to-date Chrome install on a good network.
- exhilaration 8y ago
  I would give the Bank of American app 4 out of 5 stars, it's better than, say, the Gmail app.
bo1024 8y ago
> soon can license the self driving tech My personal guess is that "soon" for fully autonomous cars is not any reasonable definition of soon. Even if you accept the tech is close to okay in Arizona (I wouldn't), think about the weather and driving conditions in most of the worlds' markets for these global companies.
- rorykoehler 8y ago
  50% of the worlds population live in cities. Car ownership is more expensive and has less utility in cities too. I'm also certain that we will start retrofitting AV enabling tech into our city streets soon to speed up the process. AV's will be "good enough" for many use cases very soon.
  - lsc 8y ago
    mm. so I don't think driving in cities is easier - I mean, it's certainly harder for a human to drive in a city; I don't see any reason why it would be easier for a machine to drive in a city than in the country.
    - rorykoehler 8y ago
      Controlled environment with good lane marking etc. Obviously some cities are easier than others.
      - lsc 8y ago
        Controlled environment? well-maintained roads? this doesn't sound like any city I've spent much time in. I'm thinking like 101 seems reasonably straightforward, modulo the occasional construction, but once you get into san Francisco, there's a lot of dodging pedestrians, cyclists, skateboarders, shopping carts, stopped delivery vehicles, etc... It doesn't look nearly as controlled, to my eyes, as 101 does further out.
- semi-extrinsic 8y ago
  I agree. The other day I was driving and thinking about this, and I started noticing "how many times during this drive have I looked another human (driver or pedestrian) in the eyes in order to determine their intentions?" It was a significant number even in a 15 minute drive. I was still thinking about it during my bike ride later in the day, and I noticed that more than a dozen times I exchanged looks and nods with drivers to ensure they had seen me and that it was safe to do something. No self driving car is able to look a human in the eyes and determine their likely course of action. And it most certainly won't be able to signal to the human a message as complex as "I have understood your intentions".
pbreit 8y ago
This is one of the more ill-informed tweets. How hard is it to roll out a ride hailing up? Borderline impossible. Especially for companies that have zero competency in service, software and marketplaces.
- jelling 8y ago
  ...which is part of why Audi bought Silvercar. This gave them a well-run service company with physical locations in most metros. And they've recently added renter pickup so it's not like this is black magic. What's more unrealistic to think is that a move to driverless cars / less car ownership would lead to the manufacturer's rolling over.
- icebraining 8y ago
  > How hard is it to roll out a ride hailing up? Borderline impossible. So how do we already have Lyft, Cabify, MyTaxi, Bolt, Kapten, Didi, AutoNavi, Meituan, Grab, OlaCabs, and a bunch more?
  - pbreit 8y ago
    Lyft is the only one I've ever seen in the USA. Even Uber has struggled in markets where a strong player already existed.

wskinner 8y ago

Here's a thought experiment: how hard is it for a billion dollar company to roll out a simple crud app? Easy, right? Now name a single major bank with an app that is better than "barely usable". Which is easier? A crud app or a ride hailing app?

rorykoehler 8y ago
All my banks have good apps on par with the fintech startup apps I use (and actually I trust them more because they aren't moving fast and breaking things).
- HeWhoLurksLate 8y ago
  > and actually I trust them more because they aren't moving fast and breaking things VERY true, not just in finance.
- wastedhours 8y ago
  Same for me too - my incumbent bank's app is mostly comparable with the latest hot fintech's. The latter has nothing but a slightly more polished visual look, and that's not enough for me to trust them with my paycheck.
- fuzzybeard 8y ago
  I use a regional bank and their app is only usable for minor day to day things. For that it's fine. But I can't do anything "serious" in it: checking account transactions are limited to only the last 2 weeks; I can't search transactions for a specific amount or merchant or date; I can't view past payments I've made for bills, etc. For any of the above, I have to use the desktop site. These are not technical limitations either and should all be in the app if we want full parity with mobile.
yellow_postit 8y ago
Which national US bank or investment company has an app you find “barely usable”? The only one that comes to mind is Vanguard and that fits my mental model they’ve cultivated of keeping costs low on extraneous things so in a perverse way is a positive.
- underbluewaters 8y ago
  Chase's website is pretty crappy. I regularly have to login twice, or check the developer console to debug why I get infinite loading spinners. This is with a stock and up-to-date Chrome install on a good network.
exhilaration 8y ago
I would give the Bank of American app 4 out of 5 stars, it's better than, say, the Gmail app.

bo1024 8y ago

> soon can license the self driving tech My personal guess is that "soon" for fully autonomous cars is not any reasonable definition of soon. Even if you accept the tech is close to okay in Arizona (I wouldn't), think about the weather and driving conditions in most of the worlds' markets for these global companies.

rorykoehler 8y ago
50% of the worlds population live in cities. Car ownership is more expensive and has less utility in cities too. I'm also certain that we will start retrofitting AV enabling tech into our city streets soon to speed up the process. AV's will be "good enough" for many use cases very soon.
- lsc 8y ago
  mm. so I don't think driving in cities is easier - I mean, it's certainly harder for a human to drive in a city; I don't see any reason why it would be easier for a machine to drive in a city than in the country.
  - rorykoehler 8y ago
    Controlled environment with good lane marking etc. Obviously some cities are easier than others.
    - lsc 8y ago
      Controlled environment? well-maintained roads? this doesn't sound like any city I've spent much time in. I'm thinking like 101 seems reasonably straightforward, modulo the occasional construction, but once you get into san Francisco, there's a lot of dodging pedestrians, cyclists, skateboarders, shopping carts, stopped delivery vehicles, etc... It doesn't look nearly as controlled, to my eyes, as 101 does further out.
semi-extrinsic 8y ago
I agree. The other day I was driving and thinking about this, and I started noticing "how many times during this drive have I looked another human (driver or pedestrian) in the eyes in order to determine their intentions?" It was a significant number even in a 15 minute drive. I was still thinking about it during my bike ride later in the day, and I noticed that more than a dozen times I exchanged looks and nods with drivers to ensure they had seen me and that it was safe to do something. No self driving car is able to look a human in the eyes and determine their likely course of action. And it most certainly won't be able to signal to the human a message as complex as "I have understood your intentions".

pbreit 8y ago

This is one of the more ill-informed tweets. How hard is it to roll out a ride hailing up? Borderline impossible. Especially for companies that have zero competency in service, software and marketplaces.

jelling 8y ago
...which is part of why Audi bought Silvercar. This gave them a well-run service company with physical locations in most metros. And they've recently added renter pickup so it's not like this is black magic. What's more unrealistic to think is that a move to driverless cars / less car ownership would lead to the manufacturer's rolling over.
icebraining 8y ago
> How hard is it to roll out a ride hailing up? Borderline impossible. So how do we already have Lyft, Cabify, MyTaxi, Bolt, Kapten, Didi, AutoNavi, Meituan, Grab, OlaCabs, and a bunch more?
- pbreit 8y ago
  Lyft is the only one I've ever seen in the USA. Even Uber has struggled in markets where a strong player already existed.