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I'm not sure this is bad news for Tesla, I'd say it's mostly bad news for the rest of us. Tesla has reached enough scale to be more or less sustainable (in the

I'm not sure this is bad news for Tesla, I'd say it's mostly bad news for the rest of us. Tesla has reached enough scale to be more or less sustainable (in the sense that they don't need to be posting losses anymore), and I'd imagine they can continue to grow, if more slowly, without the rapid expansion of battery production capacity that this story is about. But the great aim behind the gigafactory (at least, how I read it) was to drive battery cost down very aggressively, that is, working on the supply-side economics. This would then make EVs (not just Teslas) accessible to more people sooner, without all the subsidies (which have been a demand-side hack that didn't even work very well). If this means a slower clean transition (and I think it does) that's a sad outcome.

GrumpyNl 7y ago
Countries everywhere are taking down the subsidizing of electric cars ( In holland called, the Tesla-subsidie). This will hugely effect Tesla sales when they dont have an affordable car.
- T-A 7y ago
  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-electric-taxcredit-exclusive-idUSKCN1RM1NG https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-electric-taxcredit-...
philwelch 7y ago
Tesla itself don't have to be the ones manufacturing the batteries. Given that manufacturing seems to be the part of the value chain that Tesla is the worst at, I don't think the gigafactory was ever going to be that valuable or effective anyway.
- hindsightbias 7y ago
  It was all the rage not for back that Tesla was a battery company, not a car company. If they’re not scaling cars or batteries, then peak Tesla would be inevitable.
- imtringued 7y ago
  Their battery factory is Tesla's primary competitive advantage. They are far ahead of almost any other manufacturer in terms of battery chemistry (<3% cobalt [0], less lithium, etc) and battery pack manufacturing (first to do thermal management -> long battery life). [0] https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-batteries-cobalt-volkswagen/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-batteries-cobalt-vol...
  - philwelch 7y ago
    Battery design is one of their primary competitive advantages, along with marketing and the supercharger network. Large scale manufacturing isn’t.
clouddrover 7y ago
> This would then make EVs (not just Teslas) accessible to more people sooner Volkswagen will be taking orders for their new electric hatchback in a month. It's Europe only at this stage though: https://www.electrive.com/2019/03/13/vw-id-3-introduced-it-iaa-with-sub-e30000-pricetag/ https://www.electrive.com/2019/03/13/vw-id-3-introduced-it-i... The cheapest variant is supposed to be priced under 30,000 euros. But let's see what the price and availability is like in a month.
samfisher83 7y ago
Its pretty bad news. I think the most important part of the electric car is the battery. Electric cars were more popular that the gas car car a 100 years ago. The crappy battery is why gas is more popular today.
- MuffinFlavored 7y ago
  What do the Tesla betters need to evolve into/achieve to not be deemed crappy anymore? What are the metrics we want to see that we don't have yet?
  - csours 7y ago
    Cost, weight, power density.
  - zdragnar 7y ago
    I recently made a 1600 mile trip by car. In all of the places we stopped, I saw exactly one place that had EV charging set up. Tesla, and non-hybrid EV in general, have a co-dependent relationship with charging stations to overcome "range anxiety". This is especially true for those od us who live in cold climates and must drive in conditions unfavorable to operating batteries, such as -20 to -40 degree weather. I'm also very curious to see what the electric pickup trucks that all the manufacturers are not-so-secretly working on end up being capable of. A frequent consequence of rural life is needing to haul heavy things, such as wood for repairing out buildings or outdoor furnaces, or towing boats to go fishing.
    - lazyjones 7y ago
      >I recently made a 1600 mile trip by car. In all of the places we stopped, I saw exactly one place that had EV charging set up. I made a 2800 Km (5 days) trip through Italy a few months ago, it was a breeze with SC and abetterrouteplanner.com, never had to wait at chargers. To give you an idea what kind of roads we travelled: http://666kb.com/i/dxjj2jkx7h0uvhmmg.jpg http://666kb.com/i/dxjj2jkx7h0uvhmmg.jpg Range anxiety: 0. Cost: only road tolls. I can imagine range anxiety and charging costs being an issue with other brands of EV (non-Tesla chargers in Italy are often horrendously expensive) and of course there's more planning involved than with an ICE, but for Tesla owners, this has been a non-issue for quite a while (at least in western/central/northern Europe and most likely the USA).
RivieraKid 7y ago
It will be extremely hard for Tesla to be break-even or better.
breakyerself 7y ago
I think the Chinese operations are going to source batteries in China. Not sure if that means battery production in gigafactory 3 or not, but it should mean lithium ion production should continue to expand. Not to mention all the new entrants into the EV market. Lithium ion battery production should continue to increase and bring prices down. I'm hoping we see a $25,000 BEV with 200+ Mile range in the next 5 years.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
cjhopman 7y ago
> Tesla has reached enough scale to be more or less sustainable (in the sense that they don't need to be posting losses anymore) I really wish that Tesla had reached that point as that would mean that it's almost possible to profitably produce electric cars, but they clearly haven't.

GrumpyNl 7y ago

Countries everywhere are taking down the subsidizing of electric cars ( In holland called, the Tesla-subsidie). This will hugely effect Tesla sales when they dont have an affordable car.

T-A 7y ago
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-electric-taxcredit-exclusive-idUSKCN1RM1NG https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-electric-taxcredit-...

philwelch 7y ago

Tesla itself don't have to be the ones manufacturing the batteries. Given that manufacturing seems to be the part of the value chain that Tesla is the worst at, I don't think the gigafactory was ever going to be that valuable or effective anyway.

hindsightbias 7y ago
It was all the rage not for back that Tesla was a battery company, not a car company. If they’re not scaling cars or batteries, then peak Tesla would be inevitable.
imtringued 7y ago
Their battery factory is Tesla's primary competitive advantage. They are far ahead of almost any other manufacturer in terms of battery chemistry (<3% cobalt [0], less lithium, etc) and battery pack manufacturing (first to do thermal management -> long battery life). [0] https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-batteries-cobalt-volkswagen/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-batteries-cobalt-vol...
- philwelch 7y ago
  Battery design is one of their primary competitive advantages, along with marketing and the supercharger network. Large scale manufacturing isn’t.

clouddrover 7y ago

> This would then make EVs (not just Teslas) accessible to more people sooner Volkswagen will be taking orders for their new electric hatchback in a month. It's Europe only at this stage though: https://www.electrive.com/2019/03/13/vw-id-3-introduced-it-iaa-with-sub-e30000-pricetag/ https://www.electrive.com/2019/03/13/vw-id-3-introduced-it-i... The cheapest variant is supposed to be priced under 30,000 euros. But let's see what the price and availability is like in a month.

samfisher83 7y ago

Its pretty bad news. I think the most important part of the electric car is the battery. Electric cars were more popular that the gas car car a 100 years ago. The crappy battery is why gas is more popular today.

MuffinFlavored 7y ago
What do the Tesla betters need to evolve into/achieve to not be deemed crappy anymore? What are the metrics we want to see that we don't have yet?
- csours 7y ago
  Cost, weight, power density.
- zdragnar 7y ago
  I recently made a 1600 mile trip by car. In all of the places we stopped, I saw exactly one place that had EV charging set up. Tesla, and non-hybrid EV in general, have a co-dependent relationship with charging stations to overcome "range anxiety". This is especially true for those od us who live in cold climates and must drive in conditions unfavorable to operating batteries, such as -20 to -40 degree weather. I'm also very curious to see what the electric pickup trucks that all the manufacturers are not-so-secretly working on end up being capable of. A frequent consequence of rural life is needing to haul heavy things, such as wood for repairing out buildings or outdoor furnaces, or towing boats to go fishing.
  - lazyjones 7y ago
    >I recently made a 1600 mile trip by car. In all of the places we stopped, I saw exactly one place that had EV charging set up. I made a 2800 Km (5 days) trip through Italy a few months ago, it was a breeze with SC and abetterrouteplanner.com, never had to wait at chargers. To give you an idea what kind of roads we travelled: http://666kb.com/i/dxjj2jkx7h0uvhmmg.jpg http://666kb.com/i/dxjj2jkx7h0uvhmmg.jpg Range anxiety: 0. Cost: only road tolls. I can imagine range anxiety and charging costs being an issue with other brands of EV (non-Tesla chargers in Italy are often horrendously expensive) and of course there's more planning involved than with an ICE, but for Tesla owners, this has been a non-issue for quite a while (at least in western/central/northern Europe and most likely the USA).

RivieraKid 7y ago

It will be extremely hard for Tesla to be break-even or better.

breakyerself 7y ago

I think the Chinese operations are going to source batteries in China. Not sure if that means battery production in gigafactory 3 or not, but it should mean lithium ion production should continue to expand. Not to mention all the new entrants into the EV market. Lithium ion battery production should continue to increase and bring prices down. I'm hoping we see a $25,000 BEV with 200+ Mile range in the next 5 years.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

cjhopman 7y ago

> Tesla has reached enough scale to be more or less sustainable (in the sense that they don't need to be posting losses anymore) I really wish that Tesla had reached that point as that would mean that it's almost possible to profitably produce electric cars, but they clearly haven't.