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The technology is clearly the key piece of Tesla... and while that scales well, the platform is another story. Imagine if Toyota bought Tesla. That may be the

The technology is clearly the key piece of Tesla... and while that scales well, the platform is another story. Imagine if Toyota bought Tesla. That may be the best outcome possible as the platform would suddenly be at scale. The technology could be added to all Toyota cars ICE included (with their level of fit and finish) and the ‘electric only’ line would be supported while it ramped up and lowered cost. This would solve a lot of Tesla’s problems and make the outcome far more likely to be positive. As it stands, I want a Tesla, but I am not going to buy one because 1) cost vs quality 2) likelihood of implosion

samfisher83 8y ago
Toyota has made the Prius for a decade+. It has a hybrid drive train which is more complicated than an electric drive train. They just need to increase the electric drive train and pull out ice one.
- SECProto 8y ago
  Even more importantly, they've made the Prius Plug-in Hybrid for 7 years - it already has a big enough electric motor to drive it alone (up to 135 km/h), and a plug-in charging system.
cinquemb 8y ago
Well Moody's thinks the Toyota x Panasonic is credit positive… not sure they would think they same of Tesla acquisition at $2xx/share… though maybe Toyota would be interested (among others) in swooping up assets pennies on the dollar from default in an auction…
aNoob7000 8y ago
Unfortunately for Tesla, at its current valuation, nobody is going to buy it. The race now is between established players catching up to Tesla and its technology, and Tesla catching up to established players with their capacity to produce cars at scale.
- lazyjones 8y ago
  > Unfortunately for Tesla, at its current valuation, nobody is going to buy it. A stock-for-stock merger is also a possibility, it's been done before.
  - cinquemb 8y ago
    In this case, the interested potential acquirer would have to move heaven and earth to avoid an instant credit downgrade (assuming they have investment grade status now) at current valuations.
    - bryanlarsen 8y ago
      Toyota has a lot more debt and a significantly higher debt/equity ratio than Tesla has, a merger shouldn't have a material impact on credit ratings. Also, I feel quite confident in stating that the short-term market cap of the two companies merged would be significantly higher than the two companies separate. Toyota has a P/E of 10 (!). A merger would make it "cool", giving it a better ratio. Not Tesla's ~50 (based on quadrupling the last quarter earnings; TTM earnings are negative), but something higher than 10. And since Toyota has significant earnings, increasing the multiple of a big number.... Long term I'm not so sure it's a good strategy but a superficially the synergy looks awesome: combine Tesla's innovation and hype with Toyota's ability to deliver high quality cars.
      - deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
- threeseed 8y ago
  If you look at the Volvo Polestar it is easily a peer of Tesla and far exceeds it on the software front with the partnership with Google. And the car companies are playing in mass market segments that Tesla isn't in e.g. Kia Soul, Renault Zoe, Ford Focus, VW e-Golf etc.
  - 8y ago
Dumblydorr 8y ago
You cannot just plug and play, Toyota's vehicles dont have the requisite chassis and space for the battery pack. They'd have to redesign their cars from the ground up, and they're too busy with hybrids and fuel cells to undertake a bev revolution.
- nihonde 8y ago
  Toyota and Panasonic announced a battery tech partnership in January. They also partnered with Mazda and licensed all their EV patents. If you follow them closely in JDM, they have lots of EV concept vehicles in play.
bildung 8y ago
What exactly is Teslas technology advantage? Pure electric cars are fundamentally simpler cars than both ICE and of course hybrid models. And most other brands had hybrid models for a long time. I seriously doubt any established car manufacturer longs for Teslas technology.
- Reason077 8y ago
  They have some advantage in drivetrain technology. Their switched-reluctance permanent magnet technology is probably at least a couple of years ahead of the competition. Compare the efficiency of their vehicles (especially the Model 3), to something like the I-Pace or e-tron. But Tesla’s real advantage lies in it’s software, it’s autopilot, it’s economies of scale in battery production, and it’s supercharger network. Competitors will eventually catch up with all this stuff, but it won’t happen overnight.
  - threeseed 8y ago
    The range/efficiency advantage really isn't much of a differentiator once you reach a certain number. Most people simply aren't doing long road trips. Software isn't that special and some companies far eclipse it e.g. Volvo Polestar 2. Autopilot is a death trap so no advantage there. Supercharger network is definitely a big one but not for much longer.
    - clouddrover 8y ago
      This 1000km road trip comparison between the Hyundai Kona EV and Tesla Model X is interesting: https://insideevs.com/hyundai-kona-electric-race-tesla-model-x-video/ https://insideevs.com/hyundai-kona-electric-race-tesla-model... The Kona narrowly beat the Model X.
    - ridged 8y ago
      > Software isn't that special and some companies far eclipse it e.g. Volvo Polestar 2. I have actually not seen a working prototype of this software. All videos I have seen just show a dummy screen with nobody actually using it. Do you have a source you could post that explains how this software far eclipses the Tesla software? > Autopilot is a death trap so no advantage there. Could you explain this more? All data I have seen shows Autopilot is much safer than a human driver.
Reason077 8y ago
”Imagine if Toyota bought Tesla. That may be the best outcome possible” Culturally it may not be a good fit. Toyota, now days, is very conservative and risk-averse, and a Tesla under Toyota ownership may not have the freedom it needs to continue the kind of moon-shot innovation and investment that has got it where it is now. From Toyota’s perspective, there’s nothing to stop them building high quality EVs in high volume and competing with Tesla. They don’t need to buy Tesla to do that.
- nihonde 8y ago
  Toyota is the tortoise and Tesla is the hare. Tesla’s lasting contribution will be shifting US consumer sentiment on electric vehicles. Previously, Americans were quick to mock electric vehicles and showed zero interest in the infrastructure investments required to make them work. Of course companies like Toyota have been burned many times by capricious foreign markets that are susceptible to jingoism and manipulation by oil concerns, etc. They took a wait-and-see approach. Once the market appetite is proven, they move with alacrity and eat this segment alive. I’m posting this now so I can say “told you so” in three years.
  - mikekchar 8y ago
    Toyota will be shipping their first EVs for the 2020 market year (so I guess in the fall of this year if I understand such things correctly). It will be very interesting to see what happens. In Japan Nissan and Mitsubishi completely own the EV market (I see them frequently now and even own a Leaf myself). I've never seen any other make of EV (although I'm absolutely sure they exist and if I wasn't in the middle of the countryside would probably run into them occasionally). My interest in this story is actually Panasonic because I'm curious about how aggressively they will pursue the Japanese EV market. Nissan just sold their battery making division and apparently had talks with Panasonic, but those apparently broke down. I have no idea who will build Toyota's batteries (and probably every other Japanese car maker as they all went in together into a consortium for building EVs). Mitsubishi apparently use GS Yuasa, which is a fairly new Japanese company (15 years old) that was created from a group of companies that used to make lead acid batteries. If Panasonic thinks that Tesla isn't going to perform, they may need to hustle to stay relevant.
papermill 8y ago
Toyota, along with most Japanese car manufacturers, are betting big on hydrogen cars. They still invest in electric cars, but their main focus is on hydrogen-fueled cars. So I doubt they'll be buying TSLA. Here is a good article on the direction of the japanese car industry. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/japan-bets-on-a-hydrogen-fueled-future/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/japan-bets-on-a-h...

samfisher83 8y ago

Toyota has made the Prius for a decade+. It has a hybrid drive train which is more complicated than an electric drive train. They just need to increase the electric drive train and pull out ice one.

SECProto 8y ago
Even more importantly, they've made the Prius Plug-in Hybrid for 7 years - it already has a big enough electric motor to drive it alone (up to 135 km/h), and a plug-in charging system.

cinquemb 8y ago

Well Moody's thinks the Toyota x Panasonic is credit positive… not sure they would think they same of Tesla acquisition at $2xx/share… though maybe Toyota would be interested (among others) in swooping up assets pennies on the dollar from default in an auction…

aNoob7000 8y ago

Unfortunately for Tesla, at its current valuation, nobody is going to buy it. The race now is between established players catching up to Tesla and its technology, and Tesla catching up to established players with their capacity to produce cars at scale.

lazyjones 8y ago
> Unfortunately for Tesla, at its current valuation, nobody is going to buy it. A stock-for-stock merger is also a possibility, it's been done before.
- cinquemb 8y ago
  In this case, the interested potential acquirer would have to move heaven and earth to avoid an instant credit downgrade (assuming they have investment grade status now) at current valuations.
  - bryanlarsen 8y ago
    Toyota has a lot more debt and a significantly higher debt/equity ratio than Tesla has, a merger shouldn't have a material impact on credit ratings. Also, I feel quite confident in stating that the short-term market cap of the two companies merged would be significantly higher than the two companies separate. Toyota has a P/E of 10 (!). A merger would make it "cool", giving it a better ratio. Not Tesla's ~50 (based on quadrupling the last quarter earnings; TTM earnings are negative), but something higher than 10. And since Toyota has significant earnings, increasing the multiple of a big number.... Long term I'm not so sure it's a good strategy but a superficially the synergy looks awesome: combine Tesla's innovation and hype with Toyota's ability to deliver high quality cars.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
threeseed 8y ago
If you look at the Volvo Polestar it is easily a peer of Tesla and far exceeds it on the software front with the partnership with Google. And the car companies are playing in mass market segments that Tesla isn't in e.g. Kia Soul, Renault Zoe, Ford Focus, VW e-Golf etc.
- 8y ago

Dumblydorr 8y ago

You cannot just plug and play, Toyota's vehicles dont have the requisite chassis and space for the battery pack. They'd have to redesign their cars from the ground up, and they're too busy with hybrids and fuel cells to undertake a bev revolution.

nihonde 8y ago
Toyota and Panasonic announced a battery tech partnership in January. They also partnered with Mazda and licensed all their EV patents. If you follow them closely in JDM, they have lots of EV concept vehicles in play.

bildung 8y ago

What exactly is Teslas technology advantage? Pure electric cars are fundamentally simpler cars than both ICE and of course hybrid models. And most other brands had hybrid models for a long time. I seriously doubt any established car manufacturer longs for Teslas technology.

Reason077 8y ago
They have some advantage in drivetrain technology. Their switched-reluctance permanent magnet technology is probably at least a couple of years ahead of the competition. Compare the efficiency of their vehicles (especially the Model 3), to something like the I-Pace or e-tron. But Tesla’s real advantage lies in it’s software, it’s autopilot, it’s economies of scale in battery production, and it’s supercharger network. Competitors will eventually catch up with all this stuff, but it won’t happen overnight.
- threeseed 8y ago
  The range/efficiency advantage really isn't much of a differentiator once you reach a certain number. Most people simply aren't doing long road trips. Software isn't that special and some companies far eclipse it e.g. Volvo Polestar 2. Autopilot is a death trap so no advantage there. Supercharger network is definitely a big one but not for much longer.
  - clouddrover 8y ago
    This 1000km road trip comparison between the Hyundai Kona EV and Tesla Model X is interesting: https://insideevs.com/hyundai-kona-electric-race-tesla-model-x-video/ https://insideevs.com/hyundai-kona-electric-race-tesla-model... The Kona narrowly beat the Model X.
  - ridged 8y ago
    > Software isn't that special and some companies far eclipse it e.g. Volvo Polestar 2. I have actually not seen a working prototype of this software. All videos I have seen just show a dummy screen with nobody actually using it. Do you have a source you could post that explains how this software far eclipses the Tesla software? > Autopilot is a death trap so no advantage there. Could you explain this more? All data I have seen shows Autopilot is much safer than a human driver.

Reason077 8y ago

”Imagine if Toyota bought Tesla. That may be the best outcome possible” Culturally it may not be a good fit. Toyota, now days, is very conservative and risk-averse, and a Tesla under Toyota ownership may not have the freedom it needs to continue the kind of moon-shot innovation and investment that has got it where it is now. From Toyota’s perspective, there’s nothing to stop them building high quality EVs in high volume and competing with Tesla. They don’t need to buy Tesla to do that.

nihonde 8y ago
Toyota is the tortoise and Tesla is the hare. Tesla’s lasting contribution will be shifting US consumer sentiment on electric vehicles. Previously, Americans were quick to mock electric vehicles and showed zero interest in the infrastructure investments required to make them work. Of course companies like Toyota have been burned many times by capricious foreign markets that are susceptible to jingoism and manipulation by oil concerns, etc. They took a wait-and-see approach. Once the market appetite is proven, they move with alacrity and eat this segment alive. I’m posting this now so I can say “told you so” in three years.
- mikekchar 8y ago
  Toyota will be shipping their first EVs for the 2020 market year (so I guess in the fall of this year if I understand such things correctly). It will be very interesting to see what happens. In Japan Nissan and Mitsubishi completely own the EV market (I see them frequently now and even own a Leaf myself). I've never seen any other make of EV (although I'm absolutely sure they exist and if I wasn't in the middle of the countryside would probably run into them occasionally). My interest in this story is actually Panasonic because I'm curious about how aggressively they will pursue the Japanese EV market. Nissan just sold their battery making division and apparently had talks with Panasonic, but those apparently broke down. I have no idea who will build Toyota's batteries (and probably every other Japanese car maker as they all went in together into a consortium for building EVs). Mitsubishi apparently use GS Yuasa, which is a fairly new Japanese company (15 years old) that was created from a group of companies that used to make lead acid batteries. If Panasonic thinks that Tesla isn't going to perform, they may need to hustle to stay relevant.

papermill 8y ago

Toyota, along with most Japanese car manufacturers, are betting big on hydrogen cars. They still invest in electric cars, but their main focus is on hydrogen-fueled cars. So I doubt they'll be buying TSLA. Here is a good article on the direction of the japanese car industry. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/japan-bets-on-a-hydrogen-fueled-future/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/japan-bets-on-a-h...