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There is a lot of negative sentiment around Tesla lately. The Giga Factory was supposed to be Tesla's greatest asset, its largest advantage in the market, that

There is a lot of negative sentiment around Tesla lately. The Giga Factory was supposed to be Tesla's greatest asset, its largest advantage in the market, that enables exponential growth of production and sales. It looks like bears are coming for Tesla if they don't step up their game.

navigatesol 8y ago
>There is a lot of negative sentiment around Tesla lately. Because the mainstream press is catching up to things that "the Shorts" have been seeing and saying for a long time. It's a fact that Teslas are great cars. It's also a fact that the quality is just okay, that the market for $50k+ vehicles is limited, and that Tesla can't produce a $35k vehicle at a profit. If people bought into the idea that you were getting a fully autonomous car that would drive itself around and make you money while you slept, for $35,000 before incentives...I'm not sure what to say. But it seems like many people did.
- ShorsHammer 8y ago
  I find it hard to believe the most popular short around is actually good value to short much as I would with the most popular long. It's just so often incorrect. Investing advice from mainstream sources isn't a good strategy.
  - jsight 8y ago
    That is a really good point and one that I haven't thought of much. I've always considered "most popular" company as a signal of overvaluation, though I've certainly never analyzed that rigorously. But is there a similar correlation with "most popular short" and future success? Its definitely possible.
    - ShorsHammer 8y ago
      Fair point, I wouldn't say simply being contrarian is the solution. Shorts do great work and can profit immensely from finding the truth, as they should, but personally feel the financial media is a Dr. Frankenstein which creates it's own monsters. There's plenty of examples of "common knowledge" in the year before the Great Recession. All sorts of talking heads lined up to re-iterate the _truth_. It is possible to short a viable company into bankruptcy and win from it, this is something that should be acknowledged.
- jsight 8y ago
  Tesla never promised a $35k self-driving Model 3.
azhenley 8y ago
Since 2013 (when I started following Tesla stock), I have seen daily or weekly headlines about Tesla coming to an end.
- myself248 8y ago
  And in the long term, one of them is bound to be right. Just like people, the vast majority of companies that ever lived are also dead now. That doesn't mean we shouldn't celebrate and support and enjoy them while they're here. Tesla's stated goal is to advance the state of transportation, and they can do that whether they're in it for the long term, or just shake things up for a while and force everyone else to catch up. Sort of like Tucker or Studebaker, IMHO. I'm too young to have owned a Tucker when they were new, but I'd be proud to have done so. Whatever happens to Tesla, I want to be able to say I was part of it.
  - SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
    > Whatever happens to Tesla, I want to be able to say I was part of it. Good luck - and I sincerely mean this. I cancelled my Model 3 preorder just this morning after waiting for over 3 years. Still no ETA for them here in the UK. Meanwhile the rest of the global automotive market has caught up. I genuinely hope that my £1000 interest free loan was at least some use to the company in that time. > Tesla's stated goal is to advance the state of transportation There's no denying that they've achieved this and given the other manufacturers a much-needed kick up the ass in the process. Practical, desirable electric vehicles are here and they're here to stay, and pretty much entirely thanks to Tesla. A friend has had a few Model S's since they were released and they're incredible cars, just unfortunately too expensive for me to justify at the moment. I'm still backing Tesla in spirit but there's no denying that they have a lot of issues and that their USP is rapidly disappearing as other manufacturers bring practical electric cars onto the market. Unfortunately mass producing vehicles is a hard problem that Tesla still seem to be working out.
    - jsight 8y ago
      > Still no ETA for them here in the UK. I'm not sure what you mean by that. AFAIK, the schedule was always for the second half of the year, and they've been reaffirming June for first deliveries. They are clearly struggling with European deliveries, but the factory has been at a steady run rate of ~250k model 3s per year for the last 9 months or so. Add in the additional 50-100k run rate of S/X to that, and the plant is at least 350k per year. For perspective, BMW's largest plant produces ~440k/year.
Dumblydorr 8y ago
The bears have been coming for them forever, as the bears repeatedly short the company and then write numerous negative articles with clickbait titles
imtringued 8y ago
"The" Giga Factory doesn't exist anymore. There are three now and Tesla is shifting focus away from the first one because in China the demand is higher.

navigatesol 8y ago

>There is a lot of negative sentiment around Tesla lately. Because the mainstream press is catching up to things that "the Shorts" have been seeing and saying for a long time. It's a fact that Teslas are great cars. It's also a fact that the quality is just okay, that the market for $50k+ vehicles is limited, and that Tesla can't produce a $35k vehicle at a profit. If people bought into the idea that you were getting a fully autonomous car that would drive itself around and make you money while you slept, for $35,000 before incentives...I'm not sure what to say. But it seems like many people did.

ShorsHammer 8y ago
I find it hard to believe the most popular short around is actually good value to short much as I would with the most popular long. It's just so often incorrect. Investing advice from mainstream sources isn't a good strategy.
- jsight 8y ago
  That is a really good point and one that I haven't thought of much. I've always considered "most popular" company as a signal of overvaluation, though I've certainly never analyzed that rigorously. But is there a similar correlation with "most popular short" and future success? Its definitely possible.
  - ShorsHammer 8y ago
    Fair point, I wouldn't say simply being contrarian is the solution. Shorts do great work and can profit immensely from finding the truth, as they should, but personally feel the financial media is a Dr. Frankenstein which creates it's own monsters. There's plenty of examples of "common knowledge" in the year before the Great Recession. All sorts of talking heads lined up to re-iterate the _truth_. It is possible to short a viable company into bankruptcy and win from it, this is something that should be acknowledged.
jsight 8y ago
Tesla never promised a $35k self-driving Model 3.

azhenley 8y ago

Since 2013 (when I started following Tesla stock), I have seen daily or weekly headlines about Tesla coming to an end.

myself248 8y ago
And in the long term, one of them is bound to be right. Just like people, the vast majority of companies that ever lived are also dead now. That doesn't mean we shouldn't celebrate and support and enjoy them while they're here. Tesla's stated goal is to advance the state of transportation, and they can do that whether they're in it for the long term, or just shake things up for a while and force everyone else to catch up. Sort of like Tucker or Studebaker, IMHO. I'm too young to have owned a Tucker when they were new, but I'd be proud to have done so. Whatever happens to Tesla, I want to be able to say I was part of it.
- SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
  > Whatever happens to Tesla, I want to be able to say I was part of it. Good luck - and I sincerely mean this. I cancelled my Model 3 preorder just this morning after waiting for over 3 years. Still no ETA for them here in the UK. Meanwhile the rest of the global automotive market has caught up. I genuinely hope that my £1000 interest free loan was at least some use to the company in that time. > Tesla's stated goal is to advance the state of transportation There's no denying that they've achieved this and given the other manufacturers a much-needed kick up the ass in the process. Practical, desirable electric vehicles are here and they're here to stay, and pretty much entirely thanks to Tesla. A friend has had a few Model S's since they were released and they're incredible cars, just unfortunately too expensive for me to justify at the moment. I'm still backing Tesla in spirit but there's no denying that they have a lot of issues and that their USP is rapidly disappearing as other manufacturers bring practical electric cars onto the market. Unfortunately mass producing vehicles is a hard problem that Tesla still seem to be working out.
  - jsight 8y ago
    > Still no ETA for them here in the UK. I'm not sure what you mean by that. AFAIK, the schedule was always for the second half of the year, and they've been reaffirming June for first deliveries. They are clearly struggling with European deliveries, but the factory has been at a steady run rate of ~250k model 3s per year for the last 9 months or so. Add in the additional 50-100k run rate of S/X to that, and the plant is at least 350k per year. For perspective, BMW's largest plant produces ~440k/year.

Dumblydorr 8y ago

The bears have been coming for them forever, as the bears repeatedly short the company and then write numerous negative articles with clickbait titles

imtringued 8y ago

"The" Giga Factory doesn't exist anymore. There are three now and Tesla is shifting focus away from the first one because in China the demand is higher.