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Game changing technology tends to be overestimated in the short term and underestimated in the long term.
by hguhghuff 7y ago
Game changing technology tends to be overestimated in the short term and underestimated in the long term.
- Err_Eek 7y agoAny examples?
- hguhghuff 7y agoYeah the first web boom then bust... everyone thought it was over with no way to make money.
- barry-cotter 7y agoPersonal computers, mobile phones, genome sequencing, MOOCs, email, the telegraph, phones, the railway. There are examples where it was just straight up overestimated as well of course, like AirPower in warfare but air travel was definitely under estimated too. A plane is a flying bus and people travel across a continent for a weekend trip.
- Insanity 7y agoPerhaps bitcoin will follow this pattern. (Or well, Blockchain finance more generally).
- hguhghuff 7y agoI agree. Initial boom, then loss of faith, but in the long run probably eventually will all be some form of crypto.
- rootusrootus 7y agoThat would require the gov't and big business to jump on board, and it's not clear why they would want to.
- Insanity 7y agoNot sure why this is downvoted? Is there any clear reason to think blockchain is exempt from this?
- dgudkov 7y agoIt doesn't mean that any overestimated technology is game-changing.
- whttheuuu 7y agothats why i cant help but lmao when people say Ford and company will just "catch up to Tesla". Noone has anything close to self driving vehicles other than Tesla.
- s_dev 7y agoor more importantly -- no one has the battery building abilty that Tesla do.
- amarka 7y agoWaymo can do inner city driving better than Tesla and GM can do highway driving better than Tesla. I love the competition amongst the different platforms, as a consumer it's a win for us. I could care less on which brand does it better.
- whttheuuu 7y agoWaymo is vaporware.