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China’s Electric Cars Hit Some Potholes
- mlindner 8y agoSeems a market that is ripe for Tesla's entry into it with the Model 3. That might be why they're getting so much Chinese government sponsorship.
- sandworm101 8y agoNo. Teslas, all of them, are exponentially more expensive than the average EV in china. These aren't what we would even call cars. The average Chinese electric car is more akin to a really fast three-wheeled golf cart. I'm talking about the sub-$5000 market, price points that wouldn't cover the doors on a tesla.
- toomuchtodo 8y agoTeslas don’t spontaneously burst into flames as often as cheap Chinese EVs. Wealthy Chinese consumers will drive down the cost for poor Chinese consumers.
- dsfyu404ed 8y agoBy western standards they do. They probably still do it a lot less often than the Chinese EVs but it's not like the average Chinese buyer is rich enough to care about an edge case like that.
- toomuchtodo 8y agoBy western standards? This is an outright fabrication with no basis in fact. EVs rarely spontaneous combust compared to ICE vehicles.
- baybal2 8y ago> Teslas don’t spontaneously burst into flames as often as cheap Chinese EVs. It is either my calculator is bad or yours. 23 / 300000 = ~0.00001 40 / more than 1000000 = 0.000004
- landryraccoon 8y ago> exponentially more expensive Just a pet peeve, but is it a trend that people like to use “exponentially” to just mean “way more”? Exponentially doesn’t mean what you just wrote here.. Exponential implies a rate of growth, the cost of tesla’s isn’t doubling every N years compared to other EVs..
- misterprime 8y agoI'm guessing they meant "an order of magnitude higher".
- whatshisface 8y agoA suitable interpretation would be to say that "exponentially more" means a bigger number in the floating point/scientific notation exponent, so that it's a synonym of "order of magnitude."
- sandworm101 8y agohttps://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/exponential https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/exponent... exponential definition: 1. An exponential rate of increase becomes quicker and quicker as the thing that increases becomes larger: So, ya. Tesla's product line is exponentially more expensive. Graph them together according to range/size etc, and you will see the exponential rise in the delta between the prices, the line representing chinese product line will diverge from that of the tesla product line exponentially.
- da_chicken 8y agoIt's a rhetorical device like using "literal" even when something is meant in figurative terms. Specifically, it's hyperbole or exaggeration. It's one of the strengths of human language that we can infer meaning from context -- from connotation -- rather than purely relying on denotative meaning. By exaggerating factual reality of our statements, we imply the strength of our belief or emphasize the degree of the description we're making. Further, it's important to recognize that jargon does not supercede the vernacular meaning of a word. Just because you know what "exponential" is and how it differs from, say, "geometric" when referring to mathematics, this doesn't mean that the vernacular meanings of these words don't apply any longer. No, it doesn't matter that mathematics is the origin of the terms. There are still valid, accepted, vernacular meanings. Understanding jargon means you need to understand the context that the speaker is using to determine what meaning they're using. Here, since "exponential" in the mathematic sense is clearly nonsense, you should conclude that that meaning is not the intended literal meaning. Human communication is about conveying the overall meaning in spite of the meaning of individual words. Language is imprecise because thoughts, opinions, and arguments are more complex and nuanced than the individual words we're forced to express them in can ever be. After all, think of diversity of the range of devices that can accurately be described as a "computer". Or how many different types of objects you could describe as a "cup" or a "table". These are common nouns for real, physical objects, and their meaning is fuzzy enough to cover dissimilar objects made of dissimilar materials that serve dissimilar purposes. And yet if I say to you "I put the cup on the table" you have sufficient information to know what has happened even though you and I have never met in person, we've never shared a conversation, and you've never seen my cup or my table (and, indeed, the cup and table you're imagining in your head almost certainly look nothing like my actual cup and table). So, yeah, that isn't what "exponential" means, but that sentence is not meaningless because of it.
- nikofeyn 8y ago> The average Chinese electric car is more akin to a really fast three-wheeled golf cart. that is simply not true. have you ever been to china? there are tons of electric sedans and SUVs on the road, and i would guess that greater than 80% of my didi (the chinese uber) rides while there for two weeks were electric vehicles. these vehicles were very nice (as good interior fit and finish and external design as a tesla) but obviously much cheaper, and there were multiple models from multiple manufacturers. sure, china also sells electric scooters and other types of vehicles, but china demolishes tesla's numbers for actual electric vehicles made and sold.
- sandworm101 8y agoAre we talking about EVs or cars? An EV is anything that moves. A car is something that abides are the normal safety standards that a company like tesla must follow (airbags, crumple zones, ABS, firewalls etc). Lots of the stuff in china that looks like a "car" really isn't, just as how an SUV or pickup isn't a car. In most countries, anything on three wheels isn't ever a car. They are basically classed as motorcycles and so don't have to abide any car-related safety rules. But they are still EVs.
- nikofeyn 8y agoin general, i don't know what you're talking about. i don't see how anyone could mistake one of these three-wheeled things for a car. it's clear i was talking about fully electric cars, and when i say car, i include SUVs. i don't know what the numbers are for electric vehicles that include these three-wheeled things and electric scooters. it's possible that the numbers add up to the majority of electric vehicles in china because there are a ton of electric scooters. in fact, while i was there, i would say 98% of the scooters were electric, and there were a lot of scooters. however, your comment is misleading in terms of implying there aren't any electric cars in china. there are, and there are lots of them. and i personally found them rather nice. it was a case of "wait, what car is this?!" nearly every time we got in a didi ride.
- seanmcdirmid 8y agoThe BYD EVs used normally as taxis are basically Hyundai Genesis bodies with an electric drive train. I’ve never seen an SUV EV in China but I left in late 2016. In richer Beijing, many private EVs (not taxis or didi rentals) were Tesla Model S’s.
- stcredzero 8y agoTeslas, all of them, are exponentially more expensive than the average EV in china. These aren't what we would even call cars. The average Chinese electric car is more akin to a really fast three-wheeled golf cart. What's the name of that golf cart lead-acid battery car that Top Gear used to trash all the time? Found it. The G-Wiz. So these things are a bit of a step down from the G-Wiz?
- witcherchaos 8y agoMost of Chinese electric cars are badly built electric golf carts, around $1000, that is driven around traffic with disregard for traffic rules, that is driven by people with monthly income of $800 or less ( majority of urban population).
- mips_avatar 8y agoIf I was Panasonic or Samsung I would be very nervous about losing trade secrets. China would give anything for their IP. With the same quality of materials Panasonic and Samsung have 30-40% higher energy capacity than Chinese BD.
- howard941 8y agoChinese manufacturers make it sooo attractive to send it all over there. Low to zero up front costs including development amortized across so many units as to be lost in the parts cost. It's only when you ask for the molds and IP that you find out your product is not your own.
- wil421 8y agoChina’s electric cars look like golf carts with a plastic skin wrapped around it. The don’t look like they have much more safety features than a road legal golf cart in my state.
- NotPaidToPost 8y agoSure... https://www.nio.io https://www.nio.io
- gruez 8y agoHe was obviously referring to the ones pictured in the bloomberg article.
- NotPaidToPost 8y agoNot so obvious... Best not to hastily generalise based on a single picture from a single article, then.
- tinbad 8y agoAhh the NIO - a car that was announced back in 2016 that no one yet has seen in production form, let alone driven. Unfortunately, the EV startup market (especially in China) seem to only be good at building slick websites showcasing vaporware products, at least for now.
- HansLandaa 8y agoWhat? They've sold thousands of cars thus far. http://carsalesbase.com/china-car-sales-data/nio/ http://carsalesbase.com/china-car-sales-data/nio/
- rosser 8y agoA friend works for NIO. They're well past "slick websites showcasing vaporware".
- taobility 8y ago
- stcredzero 8y agoIt's hoverboards all over again.
- de_watcher 8y agoMore wheels though. They'll make them work eventually, just like everything else before that.
- andygates 8y agoStart with the shape and spec, then iterate the features and quality over a few frantic generations. Classic catch-up engineering.
- stcredzero 8y agoNot catching on fire? Leave that for the 2nd iteration!
- gamblor956 8y agoNot quite the same, but related: China's BYD buses are also similarly poorly built, and every non-Chinese transit agency that has purchased BYD's electric buses has either cancelled or downsized their order. LA's Metro purchased a few of them, and despite being brand new, they have worse reliability than 30-year old ICE buses.
- contingencies 8y ago{{citation-needed}}
- gamblor956 8y ago(literally the first search result in Google and Bing) https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-buses-20180520-story.html https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-buses-201...
- contingencies 8y agoDescribes arguments around range in one deployment. A long way from every non-Chinese transit agency that has purchased BYD's electric buses has either cancelled or downsized their order.
- clouddrover 8y agoAlbuquerque canceled their order of BYD buses due to low range and quality problems: https://www.abqjournal.com/1246094/abq-rejecting-all-byd-art-buses-switching-to-non-electric.html https://www.abqjournal.com/1246094/abq-rejecting-all-byd-art...
- gamblor956 8y agoEven though its a very long article, it helps to read the entire thing. The article references the Phoenix, Albuquerque and Long Beach transit agencies, all of which cancelled their BYD orders as a result of LA Metro's issues with BYD's buses.
- outworlder 8y ago> More than 40 NEVs spontaneously combusted in China in 2018. I will be the first one to complain about shoddy quality control and questionable practices but... this doesn't seem like a high number at all. I mean, ICE cars will catch fire pretty often, but this is not news. "In 2003-2007, U.S. fire departments responded to an average of 287,000 vehicle fires per year. " The ICE fleet is pretty big, but this also goes to show how absolute numbers are worthless.
- davemp 8y agoAre the ICE numbers due to collisions? I think there is a significant difference between a car catching fire as a result of a collision and during normal operation as `spontaneously` suggests.
- davidgould 8y agoI have seen at least a dozen car fires and had the car I was driving catch fire twice (same car, different causes), and none of these fires involved a collision. Anecdotal, I know but that’s what I have.
- yial 8y agoI’ve seen at least two car fires where the person was able to pull over to the side of the road, get out of the vehicle... and then watch it burn while they waited for the fire department. I also one time had a minor fire in Jeep of mine due to a mouse nest.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y agohttps://abcnews.go.com/US/bmw-recalls-million-vehicles-fire-risk/story?id=50922136 https://abcnews.go.com/US/bmw-recalls-million-vehicles-fire-... >BMW of North America has issued two recalls covering about one million vehicles that contain parts implicated in car fires. >The investigation — launched in collaboration with ABC-owned stations in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco and Raleigh, N.C. — found more than 40 cases in the last five years in which BMW owners said that parked cars that were not then subject to recalls for fire-related issues spontaneously burst into flames. Some of them, they said, had been turned off for hours or even days.
- Proven 8y agoGovernment programs distort markets and harm participants while wasting taxpayer money. Who would have thought, especially in China where the central government is so professional?
- zaroth 8y ago> For example, the most common Chinese complaint about NEVs is that battery performance on the road doesn’t meet what’s advertised. This was actually something I was rather shocked with on the Tesla Model 3. I never, ever get anywhere near the EPA range on ICE vehicles I’ve driven, but in the TM3 I can regularly beat the rated Wh/mile efficiency. With two caveats. One, if outside temperature is below 50F and I’m running the heater the efficiency drops a bit at higher speeds and significantly in heavy traffic (because heating is per minute not per mile). And two, even though the electrical efficiency is better than advertised, the MPGe conversion is not accurate because electricity costs are artificially high in MA.
- Brakenshire 8y agoThink the issue with cold weather heating will be fixed by the introduction of better heat pumps.
- londons_explore 8y agoAnd actually insulating the car. Cars today are almost entirely thermally uninsulated, which was fine back when gasoline engines pumped out kilowatts of heat for free. Having an insulating layer between the inner and outer steel panels and maybe making all glass out of a laminate with the inner plastic layer something thermally insulating would help a lot.
- Brakenshire 8y agoThat’s a good point.
- Tempest1981 8y ago> By one estimate, there are “as many as 500” NEV startups in China I would have thought that the US was the home of startups and Capitalism. Can someone explain this phenomenon? How are they funded, etc?