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> "almost 70% of respondents say they are above average while less than 10% think they are below average. This is statistically unlikely with a sample of over 7
by strictnein 8y ago
> "almost 70% of respondents say they are above average while less than 10% think they are below average. This is statistically unlikely with a sample of over 70,000 developers who answered this question, to put it mildly."
Not at all. It's a self selecting survey, the people who choose to answer are likely more confident in their abilities than those that don't, and, contrary to common understanding, it is perfectly valid for more than 50% of people to be above average.
Average != median
- Allower 8y agoDunning-Kruger effect is still a thing unsurprisingly
- marcosdumay 8y ago> Average != median Unless given an explicit definition, the word "average" has been abused to an extent that it's currently meaningless.
- piaste 8y ago> contrary to common understanding, it is perfectly valid for more than 50% of people to be above average. Average != median For this kind of question ('is X above/below average?'), however, I would expect that people are _actually_ thinking of the median. Consider a high Gini-coefficient country, where the income distribution looks like this: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 999999. If you ask people 'is the person earning 5 above or below average?' they will say he is above average, even though he is actually above the median and below the average.
- marvin 8y agoPlus: There are so many aspects of software engineering that 70% can easily be above average (or the median) in at least one of them. It's like asking drivers if they're better or worse than average. The skill hasn't been defined with a clear metric. It's lazy to just pin this on dishonesty or hubris on the part of the respondents.
- wainstead 8y ago> It's a self selecting survey I feel like I have to point this out every year, and it's one of the most important things to keep in mind about this survey. A true survey would randomly select developers from the global developer population at large.