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I live in Orlando. I have lived in Florida for all of my life (47 years) and I also wonder how we are going to adapt. I don't see any long term planning. A few

I live in Orlando. I have lived in Florida for all of my life (47 years) and I also wonder how we are going to adapt. I don't see any long term planning. A few years ago I was looking for a new office building. Considering the parking situations, I asked each developer what they were planning for electric cars, Ubers, and autonomous cars. None of them had a plan. They all said such changes were 20 years or more away. I was surprised at this because I predict it taking much less than 20 years for these changes to have a big impact. I moved into a newly built high-rise apartment building in downtown Orlando 15 months ago. The building is less than two years old. There are not enough charging outlets in the garage to accommodate all of the electric cars. It will be an expensive refit to upgrade the garage. I don't know how it works elsewhere, but the entire real estate industry in Florida is not capable of long term thinking.

yostrovs 8y ago
It's not expensive to install electric chargers in existing building. "Planning" for Uber involves what? Having a drive in in front of the building? How do you plan for non-existent self driving cars? Any practical advice you can share with the architects here?
- mcculley 8y ago
  It is certainly more expensive to install electric chargers into an existing inert concrete structure than it is to design them in from the beginning. The building I am in is working this out right now, as are many others. Planning for Uber and autonomous cars includes architecting porticos and pickup/dropoff points in favor of garages. Many buildings are hostile to use of Uber in my daily experience.
  - chii 8y ago
    > Many buildings are hostile to use of Uber in my daily experience. if there's already a taxi rank, then uber should be using that space to pick-up/drop-off. If there isn't, then the current building is _already_ unfriendly to taxis.
    - michaelcampbell 8y ago
      Except taxi ranks are a queue of fungible vehicles; uber/lyft's are "bespoke" so the exact same structure won't work quite as well. But it wouldn't be hard to make a pickup/dropoff area. I suspect there already is one at most places, it's just a pissy, petty policy that doesn't allow ridesharing (etc) to use it.
      - mcculley 8y ago
        It’s more than policy. It is architecture. As I described above, I live in a new building. I step out into traffic to get into an Uber. This was an obvious thing to consider during this building’s design.
      - closeparen 8y ago
        In SF planning meetings, I have seen buildings explicitly discouraged from accommodating pickup/dropoff on the theory that it would make traffic impacts worse (this is backwards) and undermine the “transit oriented” argument (harder to argue).
      - dredmorbius 8y ago
        There's no reason why rideshare queues and car-rider assignments couldn't be fungible up to the point the passenger steps into the vehicle, special needs excepted.
        manigandham 8y ago
        Those are called taxis. Even then they only line up at major locations, not residential buildings.
        dredmorbius 8y ago
        No. Rideshare still behaes ona requ basis. But the vehicle at the head of the queue serves the passenger first requesting a ride, special needs excepted. Out-of-order arrival of rides is addressed that way.
- sbierwagen 8y ago
  You can't install more than a handful of chargers without needing to run new circuits back to the main panel. Installing a hundred (not unreasonable for future needs!) would probably double the power consumption of the entire building, and require upgrading the utility connection, maybe even running new lines to the closest substation.
  - mcculley 8y ago
    Not to mention that with such an increase in overall electricity consumption in the garage, one might want to charge the residents for use of it. Doing so might require changes to architecture (e.g., putting electric cars on a different floor or section). There are lots of things to consider and real estate investors/developers are not thinking of any of them.
- JustSomeNobody 8y ago
  > "Planning" for Uber involves what? In Central Florida, this means having a safe place for people to stand and wait. That area gets frequent and often nasty thunderstorms.
- maxsilver 8y ago
  > Any practical advice you can share with the architects here? Could they at least run one regular (120v/15a) circuit + wall outlet to each parking spot? Is that too much to ask? That's enough electricity to give every EV car an extra 60 miles of EV range overnight. And would be plenty for any other use (ebikes and the like)
ianai 8y ago
I’m similarly perplexed at RE. For one, I make a good living and yet I can’t find decent, affordable homes near me. They’re all dated and much too expensive/soft. Dated in that they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area - and rampant lead paint/asbestos. Apartment buildings are similarly dated. Last I looked, in a big city apartment complexes were rare if they had one or two charging spots. They don’t exist in smaller or less affluent towns. I think RE suffers from a similar situation as infrastructure regarding retrofitting and upkeep in the US. Once it’s built, there’s almost no inherent market mechanism for keeping structures up to date.
- bluntfang 8y ago
  >they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area I'm really sorry but this isn't how climate change works. Climate change is a slow increase in average temperature over 100+ years that has dramatic impact on lots of things, but probably not the "need" for AC.
  - kaitai 8y ago
    Depends on your age; heat-related deaths among the elderly and other vulnerable populations are up in several areas. Is RE Reunion? If so, in a place like that if nighttime temps start failing to drop humans start experiencing heat stress.
    - ianai 8y ago
      RE = real estate. Modernizing real estate isn’t common anywhere I’ve lived/visited. Modern RE almost exclusively exists in recent developments.
    - alvalentini 8y ago
      Well, I won't die from a heatwave but without AC the impact on my wellbeing, not to mention productivity, will be considerable.
  - desdiv 8y ago
Klathmon 8y ago
I know this is getting a little off topic, but I'm as surprised as you that electric charging isn't taking on at parking lots and structures much as I expected. I mean even Disney only has like 2-6 charging spots in each of their parking lots designed to hold over 12,000 cars per lot! And then you look at other parking structures and see that they have a token charger or 2 and the few I've reached out to never have any plans on increasing the number of them.
- steelframe 8y ago
  People don't like to spend money until they're in real pain. If you don't go to Disney because you have purchased a car that can't go there unless there are electric charge stations, I don't think that's painful for them yet.
  - mcculley 8y ago
    I think we all agree that some investors won’t spend capital until it is too late. The thing that interests me is that there is apparently no incentive for real estate investors to plan for the long term.
    - steelframe 8y ago
      If I were a real estate investor, I'd be wondering about all sorts of variables. How cheap will car batteries get? How will that impact the range that EVs will have? What charge standard will people prefer? What rapid charging infrastructure will exist? It could be that nearly every EV will have plenty of range from just charging at home, and for those few who need to charge to make the trip, they will be able to get enough charge with a 5-minute stop at one of the dozens of 350kW chargers nearby. Given all this uncertainty, why would I, as a real estate investor, pay for the increased utility capacity, the installation of the electrical lines plus permitting, the charging hardware (plus unbounded maintenance), and the hassle of additional policing of which stalls customers are allowed to park in and for what reasons?
      - 8y ago
cobookman 8y ago
Most buildings last more than 20 years. I get you can make rennovations...however if you plan for the future during construction those rennovations can be much cheaper. For example making their be excess circuit breaker capacity during construction doesn't cost much and enables ev charging to be added at a later date for less money than if that spare electrical capacity wasn't installed
- mcculley 8y ago
  This is not the conclusion reached by the people spending money currently trying to retrofit the garages.
cplantijn 8y ago
I've worked as an intern at a commercial property company (Colliers International) several years ago. One thing I've learned is that commercial property (be it office or residential) is always being sold. They are essentially large bonds you can touch and live in.Party A develops or buys the building, gains an annuity via rent, attempts to raise rent slowly over a few years (thus increasing the value of the property), and selling it to Party B, which repeats the process. In commercial residential buildings, this process happens faster than in an office building because leases are shorter and residential tenants can accept rent raises every 2-3 years. In this business model, Long Term thinking is not in the best interest of making profit.
- pault 8y ago
  Every two to three years? The apartments I've lived in raise the rent by $100 every year without fail.
  - mr_overalls 8y ago
    Do you live in a high-priced urban area? I'm curious what this increase is for you as a percentage of total rent.
    - pault 8y ago
      It's about 0.5%.
- wallace_f 8y ago
  Markets are made by both buyers and sellers. Demand is ostensibly driven by consumers, and value created by meeting consumer demands. Are consumers demanding the above with their money and not just their mouths? I doubt it.
  - mcculley 8y ago
    That thing that interests me is that it is a clear market failure. 30 year bonds pay a higher interest rate than 5 year bonds. So one would think there is incentive to plan better for a building that lasts for 30 years. But we are changing the climate and other things with effects that will be felt long before 30 years. The U.S. Treasury does not offer bonds beyond 30 years, so presumably the entire system can't plan for a time horizon beyond that.
enraged_camel 8y ago
>>I don't know how it works elsewhere, but the entire real estate industry in Florida is not capable of long term thinking. They aren't incentivized to think long-term, because they are making money hand-over-fist. Whatever they build gets sold at very high margins because consumers aren't educated (thanks to things like Florida banning the term "climate change" from school textbooks) and don't have modern expectations.

yostrovs 8y ago

It's not expensive to install electric chargers in existing building. "Planning" for Uber involves what? Having a drive in in front of the building? How do you plan for non-existent self driving cars? Any practical advice you can share with the architects here?

mcculley 8y ago
It is certainly more expensive to install electric chargers into an existing inert concrete structure than it is to design them in from the beginning. The building I am in is working this out right now, as are many others. Planning for Uber and autonomous cars includes architecting porticos and pickup/dropoff points in favor of garages. Many buildings are hostile to use of Uber in my daily experience.
- chii 8y ago
  > Many buildings are hostile to use of Uber in my daily experience. if there's already a taxi rank, then uber should be using that space to pick-up/drop-off. If there isn't, then the current building is _already_ unfriendly to taxis.
  - michaelcampbell 8y ago
    Except taxi ranks are a queue of fungible vehicles; uber/lyft's are "bespoke" so the exact same structure won't work quite as well. But it wouldn't be hard to make a pickup/dropoff area. I suspect there already is one at most places, it's just a pissy, petty policy that doesn't allow ridesharing (etc) to use it.
    - mcculley 8y ago
      It’s more than policy. It is architecture. As I described above, I live in a new building. I step out into traffic to get into an Uber. This was an obvious thing to consider during this building’s design.
    - closeparen 8y ago
      In SF planning meetings, I have seen buildings explicitly discouraged from accommodating pickup/dropoff on the theory that it would make traffic impacts worse (this is backwards) and undermine the “transit oriented” argument (harder to argue).
    - dredmorbius 8y ago
      There's no reason why rideshare queues and car-rider assignments couldn't be fungible up to the point the passenger steps into the vehicle, special needs excepted.
      - manigandham 8y ago
        Those are called taxis. Even then they only line up at major locations, not residential buildings.
        dredmorbius 8y ago
        No. Rideshare still behaes ona requ basis. But the vehicle at the head of the queue serves the passenger first requesting a ride, special needs excepted. Out-of-order arrival of rides is addressed that way.
sbierwagen 8y ago
You can't install more than a handful of chargers without needing to run new circuits back to the main panel. Installing a hundred (not unreasonable for future needs!) would probably double the power consumption of the entire building, and require upgrading the utility connection, maybe even running new lines to the closest substation.
- mcculley 8y ago
  Not to mention that with such an increase in overall electricity consumption in the garage, one might want to charge the residents for use of it. Doing so might require changes to architecture (e.g., putting electric cars on a different floor or section). There are lots of things to consider and real estate investors/developers are not thinking of any of them.
JustSomeNobody 8y ago
> "Planning" for Uber involves what? In Central Florida, this means having a safe place for people to stand and wait. That area gets frequent and often nasty thunderstorms.
maxsilver 8y ago
> Any practical advice you can share with the architects here? Could they at least run one regular (120v/15a) circuit + wall outlet to each parking spot? Is that too much to ask? That's enough electricity to give every EV car an extra 60 miles of EV range overnight. And would be plenty for any other use (ebikes and the like)

ianai 8y ago

I’m similarly perplexed at RE. For one, I make a good living and yet I can’t find decent, affordable homes near me. They’re all dated and much too expensive/soft. Dated in that they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area - and rampant lead paint/asbestos. Apartment buildings are similarly dated. Last I looked, in a big city apartment complexes were rare if they had one or two charging spots. They don’t exist in smaller or less affluent towns. I think RE suffers from a similar situation as infrastructure regarding retrofitting and upkeep in the US. Once it’s built, there’s almost no inherent market mechanism for keeping structures up to date.

bluntfang 8y ago
>they almost never have AC despite climate change making it necessary in the area I'm really sorry but this isn't how climate change works. Climate change is a slow increase in average temperature over 100+ years that has dramatic impact on lots of things, but probably not the "need" for AC.
- kaitai 8y ago
  Depends on your age; heat-related deaths among the elderly and other vulnerable populations are up in several areas. Is RE Reunion? If so, in a place like that if nighttime temps start failing to drop humans start experiencing heat stress.
  - ianai 8y ago
    RE = real estate. Modernizing real estate isn’t common anywhere I’ve lived/visited. Modern RE almost exclusively exists in recent developments.
  - alvalentini 8y ago
    Well, I won't die from a heatwave but without AC the impact on my wellbeing, not to mention productivity, will be considerable.
- desdiv 8y ago

Klathmon 8y ago

I know this is getting a little off topic, but I'm as surprised as you that electric charging isn't taking on at parking lots and structures much as I expected. I mean even Disney only has like 2-6 charging spots in each of their parking lots designed to hold over 12,000 cars per lot! And then you look at other parking structures and see that they have a token charger or 2 and the few I've reached out to never have any plans on increasing the number of them.

steelframe 8y ago
People don't like to spend money until they're in real pain. If you don't go to Disney because you have purchased a car that can't go there unless there are electric charge stations, I don't think that's painful for them yet.
- mcculley 8y ago
  I think we all agree that some investors won’t spend capital until it is too late. The thing that interests me is that there is apparently no incentive for real estate investors to plan for the long term.
  - steelframe 8y ago
    If I were a real estate investor, I'd be wondering about all sorts of variables. How cheap will car batteries get? How will that impact the range that EVs will have? What charge standard will people prefer? What rapid charging infrastructure will exist? It could be that nearly every EV will have plenty of range from just charging at home, and for those few who need to charge to make the trip, they will be able to get enough charge with a 5-minute stop at one of the dozens of 350kW chargers nearby. Given all this uncertainty, why would I, as a real estate investor, pay for the increased utility capacity, the installation of the electrical lines plus permitting, the charging hardware (plus unbounded maintenance), and the hassle of additional policing of which stalls customers are allowed to park in and for what reasons?
    - 8y ago

cobookman 8y ago

Most buildings last more than 20 years. I get you can make rennovations...however if you plan for the future during construction those rennovations can be much cheaper. For example making their be excess circuit breaker capacity during construction doesn't cost much and enables ev charging to be added at a later date for less money than if that spare electrical capacity wasn't installed

mcculley 8y ago
This is not the conclusion reached by the people spending money currently trying to retrofit the garages.

cplantijn 8y ago

I've worked as an intern at a commercial property company (Colliers International) several years ago. One thing I've learned is that commercial property (be it office or residential) is always being sold. They are essentially large bonds you can touch and live in.Party A develops or buys the building, gains an annuity via rent, attempts to raise rent slowly over a few years (thus increasing the value of the property), and selling it to Party B, which repeats the process. In commercial residential buildings, this process happens faster than in an office building because leases are shorter and residential tenants can accept rent raises every 2-3 years. In this business model, Long Term thinking is not in the best interest of making profit.

pault 8y ago
Every two to three years? The apartments I've lived in raise the rent by $100 every year without fail.
- mr_overalls 8y ago
  Do you live in a high-priced urban area? I'm curious what this increase is for you as a percentage of total rent.
  - pault 8y ago
    It's about 0.5%.
wallace_f 8y ago
Markets are made by both buyers and sellers. Demand is ostensibly driven by consumers, and value created by meeting consumer demands. Are consumers demanding the above with their money and not just their mouths? I doubt it.
- mcculley 8y ago
  That thing that interests me is that it is a clear market failure. 30 year bonds pay a higher interest rate than 5 year bonds. So one would think there is incentive to plan better for a building that lasts for 30 years. But we are changing the climate and other things with effects that will be felt long before 30 years. The U.S. Treasury does not offer bonds beyond 30 years, so presumably the entire system can't plan for a time horizon beyond that.

enraged_camel 8y ago

>>I don't know how it works elsewhere, but the entire real estate industry in Florida is not capable of long term thinking. They aren't incentivized to think long-term, because they are making money hand-over-fist. Whatever they build gets sold at very high margins because consumers aren't educated (thanks to things like Florida banning the term "climate change" from school textbooks) and don't have modern expectations.