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The article’s premise is that Li-ion can’t be disrupted because of the amount of current infrastructure built to produce them. I can’t help but hear a little de
by theothermkn 8y ago
The article’s premise is that Li-ion can’t be disrupted because of the amount of current infrastructure built to produce them. I can’t help but hear a little desperation in this line of argumentation. I’m no expert, but isn’t this actually the kind of thing that we imagine vested interests in every entrenched industry saying just before they’re disrupted?
For example, if flow batteries take less capital to produce. Or, if they take different equipment, maybe their capital would be cheaper, given a lack of demand?
- Latteland 8y agoIf you follow the area there are continuing new tech every month that are better than lithium but nothing ever comes to market.
- the8472 8y agothe TL;DR is economies of scale favor li-ion for the next few years even if other technology is superior in principle
- ianai 8y agoThere are probably some examples of how economies of scale discrepancies can be overcome by external market conditions from the WWII/I days. (Steel? Aluminum?) Basically government or significantly increased demand for those alternatives could push past the benefits of economies of scale of existing tech. Pricing carbon emissions or political outrage from the effects of climate change could do it.
- imtringued 8y agoThat's basically what happened with PV. Germany invested in it, costs came down and now it's profitable in the private market. Turns out our governments (and the free market) don't invest enough into promising technologies and if they do they will see great progress.
- imtringued 8y agoHow can an industry that grows by double digit percentages be an entrenched incumbent?
- airbreather 8y agoFlow batteries have no where near the energy density W/kg of lithium, the only thing that approaches petrol in any practical sense currently. So for vehicles, maybe coupled with a 5-10% supercapacitor for an electronic flywheel, will dominate transport requirements for some time. Flow batteries, given a non toxic electrolyte, are hard pressed to be beaten for the closest thing to base load a battery is going to get. The need of the application is everything currently as it is all edge cases and probably will be for an indefinite future, without some kind of totally off the radar break through.