4 ms·

The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in 50 years. That stat isn't perfect but it is still that the number of people with jobs is about as high as it

by bb2018 8y ago

The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in 50 years. That stat isn't perfect but it is still that the number of people with jobs is about as high as it has ever been.

systemBuilder 8y ago
Totally wrong! The employment population ratio age 25-54, just climbed out of a sewer where it has wallowed BELOW the lowest gross employment ratio since the recession bottom in 1992! Unemployment has been HORRIBLE since Bush left office! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 You read too many Clinton-era Arkansas lies. Clinton's racist "discouraged workers" unemployment stats - that only racists quote - says that poor people and minorities don't matter and a lack of jobs for them is their own dang fault, due to a lack of internsl motivation! signed - another Democrat.
- reallydude 8y ago
  It's interesting how there's so much "information" about how well the employment rate was over the last 10 years, but everyone knows people who became/are unemployed (or part time only employed). Somehow every just assumes it's a localized situation to them, despite the ubiquity across observers. Part of it is the misinformation, but is that the only factor in the strength in the mischaracterized narrative? This still puzzles me.
  - SketchySeaBeast 8y ago
    Assuming the unemployment rate is > 0%, shouldn't you know someone who's unemployed, just by the logic that there are unemployed people, and you know people?
    - gbear605 8y ago
      You wouldn’t have to know people, but yes there’s a good chance of it. For example, consider if the unemployment rate is 1/300,000,000 (ie. One person in the US is unemployed). Then only the people that know that one person would know an unemployed person. However, the percentage is high enough that everyone should expect to know a couple unemployed people. If the rate is 3% and everyone knows 200 people well enough to know their employment status, then you should expect to know 6 unemployed people.
bsnyder 8y ago
Trouble with the unemployment numbers is that it does not account for employment quality. There is a very high number of people who are underemployed or those who have stopped participating in the job market.
- kasey_junk 8y ago
  LNS12032194 - Employment Level - Part-Time for Economic Reasons, All Industries - Lowest its been since 2007 LNU05026645 - Discouraged Workers - Has gone up in recent months after having been lower than its been since 2007 for most of 2018. https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln
mywittyname 8y ago
Right, it's rarely this low and unemployment goes up very, very quickly. I didn't do any hard analysis, but it seems to go down at an average of about 0.5 point per month, while it goes up at like 3.0-3.5 points per month. When unemployment goes up 0.3 points in a month, often continues at that rate for months, sometimes for up to a year. So 4 months of poor performance can undo two years of employment gains, but the poor performance can go on for a year.
akeck 8y ago
But... apparently, the government has changed how it measures unemployment in those last 50 years. [1] http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-chart...

by bb2018 8y ago

The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in 50 years. That stat isn't perfect but it is still that the number of people with jobs is about as high as it has ever been.

systemBuilder 8y ago

Totally wrong! The employment population ratio age 25-54, just climbed out of a sewer where it has wallowed BELOW the lowest gross employment ratio since the recession bottom in 1992! Unemployment has been HORRIBLE since Bush left office! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060 You read too many Clinton-era Arkansas lies. Clinton's racist "discouraged workers" unemployment stats - that only racists quote - says that poor people and minorities don't matter and a lack of jobs for them is their own dang fault, due to a lack of internsl motivation! signed - another Democrat.

reallydude 8y ago
It's interesting how there's so much "information" about how well the employment rate was over the last 10 years, but everyone knows people who became/are unemployed (or part time only employed). Somehow every just assumes it's a localized situation to them, despite the ubiquity across observers. Part of it is the misinformation, but is that the only factor in the strength in the mischaracterized narrative? This still puzzles me.
- SketchySeaBeast 8y ago
  Assuming the unemployment rate is > 0%, shouldn't you know someone who's unemployed, just by the logic that there are unemployed people, and you know people?
  - gbear605 8y ago
    You wouldn’t have to know people, but yes there’s a good chance of it. For example, consider if the unemployment rate is 1/300,000,000 (ie. One person in the US is unemployed). Then only the people that know that one person would know an unemployed person. However, the percentage is high enough that everyone should expect to know a couple unemployed people. If the rate is 3% and everyone knows 200 people well enough to know their employment status, then you should expect to know 6 unemployed people.

bsnyder 8y ago

Trouble with the unemployment numbers is that it does not account for employment quality. There is a very high number of people who are underemployed or those who have stopped participating in the job market.

kasey_junk 8y ago
LNS12032194 - Employment Level - Part-Time for Economic Reasons, All Industries - Lowest its been since 2007 LNU05026645 - Discouraged Workers - Has gone up in recent months after having been lower than its been since 2007 for most of 2018. https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln

mywittyname 8y ago

Right, it's rarely this low and unemployment goes up very, very quickly. I didn't do any hard analysis, but it seems to go down at an average of about 0.5 point per month, while it goes up at like 3.0-3.5 points per month. When unemployment goes up 0.3 points in a month, often continues at that rate for months, sometimes for up to a year. So 4 months of poor performance can undo two years of employment gains, but the poor performance can go on for a year.

akeck 8y ago

But... apparently, the government has changed how it measures unemployment in those last 50 years. [1] http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-chart...