7 ms·

Do you really need AGI to understand that some drivers don't respect the right-of-way rules at 4-way intersections? And even if you don't detect the high beams

Do you really need AGI to understand that some drivers don't respect the right-of-way rules at 4-way intersections? And even if you don't detect the high beams flashing, do you need AGI to know that you shouldn't lock yourself out of the intersection purely based on your place in the queue?

nradov 8y ago
Regardless of the possible solutions for that one particular situation, my point was that odd unpredictable situations come up all the time in real world driving. We can't hope to code rules in advance for every possible situation. In the general case is it possible to handle unexpected situations without true AGI? That remains an unanswered question.
- KKKKkkkk1 8y ago
  I like the analogy of the internet. In order to have the internet, we have packet switching, retransmissions, flow control with exponential backoff, distributed spanning tree algorithms, etc. If we accept what the AI proponents say, the internet is a jumbled mess of conflicting hand-crafted rules that has no chance of ever working. And yet here we are on the internet, and we don't even need a Go or chess solver running in each router.
  - adontz 8y ago
    And sometimes networks go down, but nobody dies.
    - rhacker 8y ago
      That is what my retort was going to be. The stakes are a lot higher when it's a human at 65 mph.
  - nisse72 8y ago
    And packet collisions are not unusual. But then you simply wait a short time, and try again.
    - zimpenfish 8y ago
      10 Drive forwards a bit 20 Stop 30 Did we hit something? 35 YES: Sleep for a short time 40 GOTO 10
      - phzn 8y ago
        Reminds me of the development of Diablo. Once that sleep time became small enough the game took off.
  - nradov 8y ago
    You're making a strawman argument and I have no idea which AI proponents you're referring to. Internet routers mostly rely on deterministic non-conflicting rules with little or no AI involved. It generally works fine, although there are multiple major failures every year. How much large scale network engineering have you done?
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
    - carlmr 8y ago
      >Internet routers mostly rely on deterministic non-conflicting rules Exponential backoff (which the previous poster mentioned) is randomized and success is by definition non-deterministic algorithm to resolve conflicting usage. It works very well, and is very simple. But deterministic and non-conflicting are really not qualities that the IP protocol is known for.
- computerex 8y ago
  Well Waymo has demonstrated their reliability enough to be able to have a fleet of driverless vehicles: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/pubs/newsrel/2018/2018_81 https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/pubs/newsrel/2018/2...
  - DrScump 8y ago
    Yes, they have a fleet... that also fails in a number of ambiguous situations that average human drivers handle easily. I've observed failures in more than half my trips through Mountain View. Two use cases happen repeatedly: first, it's indecisive on lane changes when there are vehicle(s) in its targeted lane for a long time. If it cannot merge over safely due to traffic or rudeness, it will Stop in its lane until a clearance occurs -- the concept of proceeding to the next left and making a U-turn seems incomprehensible. Second, in certain right turn situations on a red light, it will hever turn if there is traffic in far lanes even if the nearest lane has a generous opening. I see this all the time on the right turn from eastbound Central turning onto southbound Castro St., for example.
    - jjulius 8y ago
      >Second, in certain right turn situations on a red light, it will hever turn if there is traffic in far lanes even if the nearest lane has a generous opening. I see this all the time on the right turn from eastbound Central turning onto southbound Castro St., for example. To be fair, even I do that sometimes if I just don't trust oncoming traffic not to do something like changing lanes in the intersection or at the last second. To your point, though, it's all dependent upon the intersection, number of lanes, etc., and I'm not familiar with the intersection in question.
  - ForHackernews 8y ago
    ...continuously supervised by humans (either remotely, or in the vehicle) I believe.
    - computerex 8y ago
      They are supervised remotely no doubt, but they are driverless and driven autonomously.
- londons_explore 8y ago
  Super simple solution is to dial in a remote human operator whenever something 'odd' happens. 'Odd' events like that are probably only 5 seconds out of every hour of driving, so in aggregate one operator could handle 720 cars. At that point, the operator is far cheaper than further work on the AI.
  - Piskvorrr 8y ago
    Sure, that wo-NO CARRIER

nradov 8y ago

Regardless of the possible solutions for that one particular situation, my point was that odd unpredictable situations come up all the time in real world driving. We can't hope to code rules in advance for every possible situation. In the general case is it possible to handle unexpected situations without true AGI? That remains an unanswered question.

KKKKkkkk1 8y ago
I like the analogy of the internet. In order to have the internet, we have packet switching, retransmissions, flow control with exponential backoff, distributed spanning tree algorithms, etc. If we accept what the AI proponents say, the internet is a jumbled mess of conflicting hand-crafted rules that has no chance of ever working. And yet here we are on the internet, and we don't even need a Go or chess solver running in each router.
- adontz 8y ago
  And sometimes networks go down, but nobody dies.
  - rhacker 8y ago
    That is what my retort was going to be. The stakes are a lot higher when it's a human at 65 mph.
- nisse72 8y ago
  And packet collisions are not unusual. But then you simply wait a short time, and try again.
  - zimpenfish 8y ago
    10 Drive forwards a bit 20 Stop 30 Did we hit something? 35 YES: Sleep for a short time 40 GOTO 10
    - phzn 8y ago
      Reminds me of the development of Diablo. Once that sleep time became small enough the game took off.
- nradov 8y ago
  You're making a strawman argument and I have no idea which AI proponents you're referring to. Internet routers mostly rely on deterministic non-conflicting rules with little or no AI involved. It generally works fine, although there are multiple major failures every year. How much large scale network engineering have you done?
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - carlmr 8y ago
    >Internet routers mostly rely on deterministic non-conflicting rules Exponential backoff (which the previous poster mentioned) is randomized and success is by definition non-deterministic algorithm to resolve conflicting usage. It works very well, and is very simple. But deterministic and non-conflicting are really not qualities that the IP protocol is known for.
computerex 8y ago
Well Waymo has demonstrated their reliability enough to be able to have a fleet of driverless vehicles: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/pubs/newsrel/2018/2018_81 https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/pubs/newsrel/2018/2...
- DrScump 8y ago
  Yes, they have a fleet... that also fails in a number of ambiguous situations that average human drivers handle easily. I've observed failures in more than half my trips through Mountain View. Two use cases happen repeatedly: first, it's indecisive on lane changes when there are vehicle(s) in its targeted lane for a long time. If it cannot merge over safely due to traffic or rudeness, it will Stop in its lane until a clearance occurs -- the concept of proceeding to the next left and making a U-turn seems incomprehensible. Second, in certain right turn situations on a red light, it will hever turn if there is traffic in far lanes even if the nearest lane has a generous opening. I see this all the time on the right turn from eastbound Central turning onto southbound Castro St., for example.
  - jjulius 8y ago
    >Second, in certain right turn situations on a red light, it will hever turn if there is traffic in far lanes even if the nearest lane has a generous opening. I see this all the time on the right turn from eastbound Central turning onto southbound Castro St., for example. To be fair, even I do that sometimes if I just don't trust oncoming traffic not to do something like changing lanes in the intersection or at the last second. To your point, though, it's all dependent upon the intersection, number of lanes, etc., and I'm not familiar with the intersection in question.
- ForHackernews 8y ago
  ...continuously supervised by humans (either remotely, or in the vehicle) I believe.
  - computerex 8y ago
    They are supervised remotely no doubt, but they are driverless and driven autonomously.
londons_explore 8y ago
Super simple solution is to dial in a remote human operator whenever something 'odd' happens. 'Odd' events like that are probably only 5 seconds out of every hour of driving, so in aggregate one operator could handle 720 cars. At that point, the operator is far cheaper than further work on the AI.
- Piskvorrr 8y ago
  Sure, that wo-NO CARRIER