5 ms·

This is two days outdated. We are at meaningful vote 3 phase. I assume this is going to fail again which gives it a 80% hard brexit chance with 20% rescinding

This is two days outdated. We are at meaningful vote 3 phase. I assume this is going to fail again which gives it a 80% hard brexit chance with 20% rescinding brexit. I have always been all-in on "no brexit" for last three years. It's a dog and pony show.

elyobo 8y ago
The most flow chart seems to cover MV3 and potential outcomes pretty well. It (Brexit) is a hell of a mess, I have no idea how you guys are going to get out of this one.
- keithpeter 8y ago
  "I have no idea how you guys are going to get out of this one" Neither have I, but I imagine that time, geography and economics will sort it out. EU changing, old guard turning over. UK voters changing each year due to the grim reaper and 17 year olds turning 18 (about 600k churn each year). Charts are really useful. Hope they are updated.
- ganeshkrishnan 8y ago
  It cover's MV3 but starts above it giving 0.4 as no consensus and 0.7 for MV3 but we know it is "no consensus" and MV3 today. So the percentages below will change. As he said on twitter he is banking on Mv3 losing and I assume the same which leaves with 80% no-deal brexit and 20% no brexit. I am betting on brexit being rescinded. The deal falling thru and the parliament dumping it.
ldite 8y ago
It's not a "meaningful vote" today (29th) - it's only a vote on the withdrawal agreement, not the political declaration. According to the Attorney General that means it's not a "meaningful vote" as previously defined. And it's going to be voted down, of course.
- ethbro 8y ago
  Whatever happened to the speaker's declaration that the government couldn't keep bringing up the same bill? Is this actually different, or did everyone forget that?
  - Sahhaese 8y ago
    The government rules-lawyed it to be different by moving only the WA part rather than the WA+PD which it previously insisted had to be voted on together.
  - nmeofthestate 8y ago
    This is not a repeat, it is some kind of sneaky half-vote just on the WA that will not ensure an orderly Brexit on May 22. It appears that Theresa May is trying to run the clock past the April deadline for a long delay, so we're back in a "her deal or no deal" situation. Then again the EU will probably not stand for that.
    - nicky0 8y ago
      No what she actually wants is to pass this motion today so we can fix the May 22 leaving date and then we can move to the next stage. But seems the other parties are determined to continue playing political games instead.
    - oarsinsync 8y ago
      A European Commission spokesman said: "The withdrawal agreement negotiated between both parties is indeed both necessary and sufficient to ensure the orderly withdrawal of the UK."
  - renholder 8y ago
    I think that was part of the agreement on the new measures: If no measures pass, default to MV3.
    - nicky0 8y ago
Slimbo 8y ago
The odds need adjusting giving it's not quite mv3 but just separation agreement. I don't think we're at 80% hard, 20% cancel a50? Even though it didn't get an indicative majority, there's still a chance MV3 fails and we move to a longer extension and/or peoples vote.
0XAFFE 8y ago
Seems he is waiting: https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1111577041965600770 https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1111577041965600770
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
renholder 8y ago
>I have always been all-in on "no brexit" for last three years. I've always been fascinated by the "drive it off of the cliffs" mentality, and I don't mean this as an affront, in any form or fashion. For example, what is your opinion of the breakdown of the Good Friday agreement? Is there a genuine belief that the bombings wouldn't recur or is it more of an NIMBY, so not my concern? (Again, not an affront, I genuinely want to understand.) Or what's the opinion on Scotland having another referendum on independence, since they voted remain?
- scottyw555 8y ago
  I read the parent as saying he is against Brexit (all in on "no Brexit"), presumably for the reasons you articulate.
  - renholder 8y ago
    All in on "no Brexit", to me, sounds like "going all in" on a round of poker - meaning you're very much for that.
    - twic 8y ago
      Yes. He is very much for "no Brexit", ie not doing Brexit. Not to be confused with "no-deal Brexit", which is doing Brexit without a deal.
    - empath75 8y ago
      Yes being very much for ‘no brexit’ means you’re against brexit.
    - simonw 8y ago
      Yes exactly. They want Brexit not to happen at all. Your reply seemed to be talking about "no deal Brexit" which is essentially the opposite scenario.
  - ganeshkrishnan 8y ago
    Correct. More precisely I meant brexit not happening at all. That is article 50 will be rescinded and UK will return to status quo.
raxxorrax 8y ago
They should have left immediately since they could have been back by now.

elyobo 8y ago

The most flow chart seems to cover MV3 and potential outcomes pretty well. It (Brexit) is a hell of a mess, I have no idea how you guys are going to get out of this one.

keithpeter 8y ago
"I have no idea how you guys are going to get out of this one" Neither have I, but I imagine that time, geography and economics will sort it out. EU changing, old guard turning over. UK voters changing each year due to the grim reaper and 17 year olds turning 18 (about 600k churn each year). Charts are really useful. Hope they are updated.
ganeshkrishnan 8y ago
It cover's MV3 but starts above it giving 0.4 as no consensus and 0.7 for MV3 but we know it is "no consensus" and MV3 today. So the percentages below will change. As he said on twitter he is banking on Mv3 losing and I assume the same which leaves with 80% no-deal brexit and 20% no brexit. I am betting on brexit being rescinded. The deal falling thru and the parliament dumping it.

ldite 8y ago

It's not a "meaningful vote" today (29th) - it's only a vote on the withdrawal agreement, not the political declaration. According to the Attorney General that means it's not a "meaningful vote" as previously defined. And it's going to be voted down, of course.

ethbro 8y ago
Whatever happened to the speaker's declaration that the government couldn't keep bringing up the same bill? Is this actually different, or did everyone forget that?
- Sahhaese 8y ago
  The government rules-lawyed it to be different by moving only the WA part rather than the WA+PD which it previously insisted had to be voted on together.
- nmeofthestate 8y ago
  This is not a repeat, it is some kind of sneaky half-vote just on the WA that will not ensure an orderly Brexit on May 22. It appears that Theresa May is trying to run the clock past the April deadline for a long delay, so we're back in a "her deal or no deal" situation. Then again the EU will probably not stand for that.
  - nicky0 8y ago
    No what she actually wants is to pass this motion today so we can fix the May 22 leaving date and then we can move to the next stage. But seems the other parties are determined to continue playing political games instead.
  - oarsinsync 8y ago
    A European Commission spokesman said: "The withdrawal agreement negotiated between both parties is indeed both necessary and sufficient to ensure the orderly withdrawal of the UK."
- renholder 8y ago
  I think that was part of the agreement on the new measures: If no measures pass, default to MV3.
  - nicky0 8y ago

Slimbo 8y ago

The odds need adjusting giving it's not quite mv3 but just separation agreement. I don't think we're at 80% hard, 20% cancel a50? Even though it didn't get an indicative majority, there's still a chance MV3 fails and we move to a longer extension and/or peoples vote.

0XAFFE 8y ago

Seems he is waiting: https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1111577041965600770 https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1111577041965600770

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

renholder 8y ago

>I have always been all-in on "no brexit" for last three years. I've always been fascinated by the "drive it off of the cliffs" mentality, and I don't mean this as an affront, in any form or fashion. For example, what is your opinion of the breakdown of the Good Friday agreement? Is there a genuine belief that the bombings wouldn't recur or is it more of an NIMBY, so not my concern? (Again, not an affront, I genuinely want to understand.) Or what's the opinion on Scotland having another referendum on independence, since they voted remain?

scottyw555 8y ago
I read the parent as saying he is against Brexit (all in on "no Brexit"), presumably for the reasons you articulate.
- renholder 8y ago
  All in on "no Brexit", to me, sounds like "going all in" on a round of poker - meaning you're very much for that.
  - twic 8y ago
    Yes. He is very much for "no Brexit", ie not doing Brexit. Not to be confused with "no-deal Brexit", which is doing Brexit without a deal.
  - empath75 8y ago
    Yes being very much for ‘no brexit’ means you’re against brexit.
  - simonw 8y ago
    Yes exactly. They want Brexit not to happen at all. Your reply seemed to be talking about "no deal Brexit" which is essentially the opposite scenario.
- ganeshkrishnan 8y ago
  Correct. More precisely I meant brexit not happening at all. That is article 50 will be rescinded and UK will return to status quo.

raxxorrax 8y ago

They should have left immediately since they could have been back by now.