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India will overtake the US economy by 2030
- point78 8y agoNot hard to do when you don't respect the intellectual property of anyone and close off your market
- KorematsuFred 8y agoYes, USA has been a paragon of virtue in intellectual property matters.
- remarkEon 8y agoWhile true that the US is no saint in this regard, the scale of IP theft by China is industrial, and well known.
- vkou 8y agoIf history is any indication, once countries start becoming net exporters of IP, and net importers of low-skilled labour, they very quickly adopt the same neo-liberal trade and IP policies that are currently championed by the developed world.
- ben_jones 8y agoYes imagine if Thomas Edison had had his inventions stolen! American ingenuity stands on our patent system.
- vkou 8y agoImagine if Thomas Edison built his inventions off the ideas, and prototypes of others... Without crediting, or compensating them. Which he did. [1] [1] He even engaged in outright theft - copying, and selling bootleg movies, for Pete's sake's! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Trip_to_the_Moon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Trip_to_the_Moon
- fredkorematsu 8y agoEdison himself was stealing ideas from others. Not to mention the slave labour and free natural resources of a new continent that americans used while enforcing chinese exclusion act. Ip theft from china is western imagination.
- screye 8y agoBad example buddy.
- KorematsuFred 8y agoEdison was the biggest thief of IP during his time. Of course when western societies steal it is not theft but "manifest destinty" "braveness" and a lot of other BS. But Chinese company's rise is purely because of theft. Is it ?
- perfunctory 8y agoExactly what the US did at the early stage of its development. https://www.charlesdickensinfo.com/life/copyright-laws/ https://www.charlesdickensinfo.com/life/copyright-laws/
- melling 8y agoAt some point I would think companies need to do their own R&D if they want to compete globally. For example, if China wants to lead the world in AI by 2025, they need the best people doing research.
- screye 8y agoWell, that's the one area where they do have top talent in. Too conferences like CVPR are overwhelmingly Chinese and a Tshingua and Peking are world leaders in AI. China is still lagging far behind in other areas, but they certainly haven't dropped the ball when it comes to AI.
- naravara 8y agoIs it that surprising that a nominally communist government wouldn't put much stock in the concept of "intellectual property," which is even more vague and questionable than the concept of private property?
- zaptheimpaler 8y agoAs concerns about US competitiveness in the global economy are ramping up, they are placing import tariffs promoting an "America First” strategy with the express goal of protecting domestic production from cheap imports! Sounds an awful lot like "closing off your market". Maybe both US & China just like the idea of free trade when it benefits them, not so much when it doesn't. Like every other country.
- gandhium 8y agoMaybe they will or maybe not. I can remember similar predictions about Japan and... let's say they didn't make it.
- aaaaaaaaaaab 8y agoWhy was this comment downvoted to death? Remember the huge geisha advert in the 1982 Blade Runner? People were extrapolating from decades of Japanese economic growth, and thought that Japan will leave everyone behind...
- olalonde 8y agoBecause it's a platitude (as most other comments in this thread).
- dragontamer 8y agoYou don't even need to enter the realm of sci fi actually. "Gung Ho" (1986) and "Die Hard" (1988) both feature Japanese corporate overlords doing things as core elements of the plot. Not necessarily evil, its just kinda assumed that Japan would take over large parts of even the US Economy back then. Japan's "economic miracle", although it was cut short by the 1990s, was an incredible rise. Japan is still one of the major world economic powers, in large part due to its humongous growth.
- slavik81 8y agoJapan grew until they roughly matched the GDP per capita of the successful western nations, then slowed down. Anything even close to same result with India or China would overtake the US economy. To overtake the US, each Japanese worker would have had to produce twice as much value as an American worker, but each Chinese or Indian worker only needs to produce a quarter as much as an American worker.
- pacala 8y agoWildly speculative. Turkey is predicted to have 9.1 [some unit], while Germany 6.8 [some unit]. There are two countries with similar demographic profiles, with Germany having 5x the [nominal] GDP of Turkey today. Short of nuclear war or an asteroid landing in Ruhrgebiet, it's hard to imagine what would lead to Turkey's economy overtaking Germany's in 11 years. PS. "nominal GDP using purchasing power parity exchange rates" is nonsense. Not sure if the error lies with the journalist or with the source.
- bdod6 8y agoA lot of that speculative growth comes from Turkey's comparatively younger population (hence more productive hours worked each day), and their continued population growth. Germany's demographics are sliding the other way, with an aging and stagnating population.
- pacala 8y agoEverything you said applies today to the demographic pyramids of the respective 2 countries, with only an 11 years delta. And yet Germany has 5x the GDP. https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2019/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2019/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2030/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/turkey/2030/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2019/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2019/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2030/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2030/
- changchuming 8y agoGermany had 10x the GDP of Turkey twenty years ago. That just proves that Turkey has caught up a lot. Demographics take a long time to have an effect on GDP, they're just forecasting that the tipping point is 2030.
- baybal2 8y agoThis is a often reappearing topic, and to some people it sounds like the end of the world, but that's just too sensationalistic. Well, even when it happens, then what? China will still be poorer per capita if it reaches parity in net GDP, and beside the symbolic change in the modulus of GDP gap, nothing will change.
- cromwellian 8y agoAs Andrew Yang has pointed out, GDP is a pretty poor measurement, and at least in China's case, not transparent and most likely inflated by localities self-reporting to meet central government targets. GDP is proportional to population, so if you have a larger population, your GDP can be proportionately larger. The question is, what's GDP per capita or GDP per capita PPP? China per capita GDP is 1/7th-1/8th of the US, and India per capita GDP is 1/30th of the US, will they make it up in 10 years? China could, if they can keep up their growth and not experience a major recession or depression, which seems unlikely.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- onetimemanytime 8y agoOK, but can't China or India take x% of GDP and built their military with it? Go ahead and fight someone spending 2x as much as you
- handsomechad 8y agowhy did this get downvoted, my first thought was exactly along these lines. does anyone have an answer?
- outlace 8y agoBut if current dominant country A has GDP of 100 units and rival country B is poised to get to 150 units, then won't country B be able to wield more economic power than country A even though country B's GDP/person is lower? It's sort of like a company that has 100 units of revenue and 20 units of costs versus a company with 150 units of revenue and 90 units of cost, the one with greater revenue may still have more economic power (e.g. ability to leverage suppliers, etc) despite having lower profit margin.
- benj111 8y agoAgreed, if you want some idea of quality of life, GDP probably isn't the best. If you want to measure who has the most resources either to potentially trade with them, or decide if you have the resources to fight them, GDP becomes more useful.
- danschumann 8y agoUnless we go mine some asteroids or something.
- bretpiatt 8y agoIn PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) they will, in real dollars China is forecasted to but India won't be close. As a US based tech company my customers pay me in real dollars so we use real vs. PPP for our market size analysis. https://www.statista.com/statistics/271724/forecast-for-the-countries-with-the-highest-gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-2030/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/271724/forecast-for-the-... In real dollars the US ($19T) still has a substantial lead on China ($12T) today so the 2030 forecasts assume continued substantial growth for China. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.cd?year_high_desc=true https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.cd?year_hig...
- JumpCrisscross 8y ago> As a US based tech company my customers pay me in real dollars Transactions occur in nominal dollars. “Real” is an adjustment made so nominal figures at different points in time can be compared.
- bretpiatt 8y agoI suppose we could debate about if I'm paid in real or nominal dollars for my tech I sell to folks. Today I'm paid in nominal dollars, over my 10 years of history it's real ones. The core point is I'm not paid in PPP dollars from India with a 17/1 PPP adjustment over the US. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value_(economics) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_versus_nominal_value_(e... https://data.oecd.org/conversion/purchasing-power-parities-ppp.htm https://data.oecd.org/conversion/purchasing-power-parities-p...
- reversengineer 8y agoPPP is and always will be a garbage metric. Don't compare my Pepperidge Farm 15-Grain bread, sold for $3 a loaf at the supermarket with steamed buns sold for ￥1 each on the street.
- asark 8y agoI want a "good cheese, good wine, good bread" price comparison metric. By that measure, my money in the US only goes like 1/2-1/3 as far as the same amount in France, since it takes about 2-3x the money to consistently match the quality of their bog-standard stuff in those categories. Usually a good bit of travel time, too, in the case of bread. :-( [EDIT] actually 3x might be low on the bread. 3.5-4x, probably, around here, to get a baguette that's on par with your average Parisian one, for instance. You don't even hit "kinda OK" until $4 or so, and you're still not guaranteed to be getting something that tastes like a baguette at all, let alone a decent one, at that price. Croissants too. I've had exactly one in my city that was close to the real thing and it was crazy expensive. They burnt it, though. So close, yet so far.
- benj111 8y ago"actually 3x might be low on the bread. 3.5-4x, probably, around here, to get a baguette that's on par with your average Parisian one" I have never found a decent baguette outside of France at any price, so you're doing better than me. How would your price metric work then?
- Tade0 8y agoI think this is more related to the respective climates and local tastes than anything else. For example I can't for the life of me find any good potatoes, apples or bread in Italy - or anything even remotely sour that isn't wine - apparently it's not something the locals particularly enjoy.
- pibi 8y agoReally? Not apples or bread? We have valleys known only for their unique apples, like the Mela Renetta from Friuli. Don't let me started talking about the apples from Trentino. So, maybe you are talking about apples in the south of Italy. About bread: I see where you are coming from, best breads I eaten are coming from bakeries on the mountains. They just taste so good. But please, remember that bread in Italy is just a support for the main tastes, like the olive oil.
- screye 8y agoIs this the new superpower 2020? I have heard the same horn be tooted in India over the last 2 decades, and India is no closer to the that goal than it was 2 decades ago. The problems India faces can't be solved in 20 years. 1 generation for that is too little. I do however think that India will undergo a massive push ahead the second we have a few cities where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in QOL or effective wages.
- olcor 8y ago> where expats can return to without incurring a major loss in QOL or effective wages. I’m moving back to India soon (NYC -> Mumbai). My quality of life will likely increase; wages will not even be close (savings rate might be the same though). Which cities are on your mind for this?
- selfselfself 8y agoIn 2014-2015, if you were a PM / SR PM at Amazon/Google/FB and moved to Bangalore, you would've gotten a Director (at large tech companies) or VP role (at mature startups) easily and would've made the about the same comp as you were making the US. Not sure what the situation is now.
- baybal2 8y agoThis is a bit like mine rationality of going to China. Any income above $3k gives you a lifestyle you can't imagine in any Western tech hub, but more importantly ability and talent is more important here (don't laugh.) In overall, the industry is in better shape here, and the tech scene is not just a stock/bond market extension yet. I'm not a Western nation national, so for me, going to the West again (I lived in Canada for 6 years,) will involve going through visa troubles, and be looked upon like on an idiot by every official for the duration of my stay. And not to say, you will have that "cheap labourer" stigma on you.
- anticodon 8y agoQuality of life is not only income. It's also infrastructure, environment, many other things. I had only briefly visited Mumbai, but visited many big cities in India. They're extremely noisy, congested, air quality is poor. Power and Internet outages are frequent. There no parks in most Asian cities so if you're tired and want to relax in a quiet place under the trees you should drive for hours out of the city.
- DeonPenny 8y agoAnyone do the math behind this the Pe^rt math. It would take if the US grew at 2% china would need to grow 6% YoY. Anyone believe that China will still grow at 10% in 10 years. Even with a economy that treats GDP at a input and not a output
- puranjay 8y agoI know I'm in the minority, but in terms of household income, most of my peers are already at American levels in absolute dollar figures (> $85-100k) here in India. I've also found that US-based clients are far less skeptical of my skills than they used to be half a decade ago, and that they are also willing to pay US rates for quality work (as opposed to expecting third world rates)
- JoshTko 8y agoJust came back from India and I would easily bet against India overtaking the US by 2030. It took me 45 min to travel 3km during rush hour.
- olcor 8y agoHa! I had a similar experience in the valley (mountain view) during an interview. Took me 15 minutes more, and I got late for my first round. Driving in NYC is out of the question any time of day.
- dnene 8y agoThis article is somewhat misleading. Although the image caption says Nominal GDP, the bottom of the image says the GDP is in PPP terms. AFAIK the most optimistic estimates make India the second largest economy in nominal terms measured by exchange rate no earlier than 2050. India is expected to be growing pretty fast. But nowhere close to the rate which would be needed for this to be true in currency exchange rate terms. PPP terms really doesn't mean much.
- thorwasdfasdf 8y agoThe article didn't go into much detail about how all this was calculated out. I don't think they took into account gov debt. that can be a huge factor. Japan for instance has not had any increase in GDP over the last 25 years and that doesn't look like it's going to change. So I don't see how their gdp can jump from 4.8T to 7.2T in just 11 years! Japan is currently at 230% and it weighing very heavily along with their aging population. Their GDP hasn't been increasing at all in the last 25 years. The US is heading in the same direction with budget deficit of 4% every year whilst only growing 3.3% a year. US interest payments are expected to reach 25% of federal spending in 2028 if we continue with our current deficits. At that point, unfortunately US growth will be a complete standstill, for decades to come :( Indonesia is an interesting one to watch, i keep forgetting how much people are in that country!
- baron816 8y agoThey’re expecting Russia’s GDP to more than quadruple over 10 years? Not likely.
- bobbydreamer 8y agoDon't know about china. India will overtake in population maybe but definitely not in other categories( education, innovation, discipline, military, health, agriculture, infrastructure). In 2001-2005 the story was about 2020. In another 10 years no way, in the present scenario in 100 years also no way. Why law & politics ? It's pay per use.