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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Countries_with_a_full_ban_enacted_into_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fue

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Countries_with_a_full_ban_enacted_into_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic... 2025: Norway 2030 EU: Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland, Denmark 2030 Non-EU: India, Israel --- If you take a lifetime of 20+ years for new vehicles into account, and you want to be phased out by 2050, you need to ban in 2030. Very simple. Maybe you don't need a full ban, maybe strong incentives suffice (see China). But full bans have been enacted in law in very substantial markets already.

nradov 8y ago
Those deadlines are aspirational, not realistic based on actual vehicle production capacity or energy supplies. In 2030 the majority of new passenger vehicles will still contain internal combustion engines, although those may just be components of plug-in hybrid systems. Governments will end up allowing a lot of extensions and exceptions.
- silvestrov 8y ago
  Then Norway has a very different interpretation of the word "aspirational". From https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/electric-car-sales-norway-2018/ https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/electric-car-sales-norway-201... > 45% of new cars were all-electric and 60% were plug-in in October 2018. The Nissan Leaf was the most popular all-electric vehicle in the market.
  - melling 8y ago
    That’s because electric vehicles are heavily subsidized in Norway.
    - Reason077 8y ago
      It's not so much that electrics are subsidized. More that fossil-fuel vehicles are heavily taxed.
      - melling 8y ago
        Well, let’s clarify this: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/02/norway-electric-cars-subsidies-fossil-fuel https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/02/norway-electri... https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/12/norway-electric-vehicle-models-incentives-car-free-oslo/578932/ https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/12/norway-electric-...
        Reason077 8y ago
        To be clear, electric vehicles in Norway cost the same or more as they do in (eg) the United States. The difference is that there are heavy taxes on fossil fuel vehicles that do not apply to electrics, making the relative difference in cost between electrics and fossils much smaller. (Yes, there are also many fringe benefits like free/discounted road tolls and HOV lane access, but as your article mentions, many of those are already being rolled back)
    - Certhas 8y ago
      So it's not aspirational, but real law backed by real money and government investment.
- Certhas 8y ago
  If VW offers a wide range of EVs at reasonable prices the argument that we need extensions and exceptions will be hard to make. VWs move creates a regulatory environment beneficial to VWs move. TCO of EVs is about the same now and will be considerably better than ICE in the next years. How many consumers will be willing to pay a premium for outdated technology? This could switch quickly with electric energy and power grids being the bigger bottlenecks. At least Grid operators are deeply worried about the upcoming transition.
semi-extrinsic 8y ago
FWIW the Norway one was widely reported as a ban, but it is not. The official government policy is that they "have a goal that all new cars should be zero emission (ZEV) in 2025". Nobody who's actually crunched the numbers thinks this is realistic (that we reach 100% new cars are ZEV), but maybe we'll reach 60% by 2025. Currently we're at 30% of new cars are ZEV, up from 10% in 2014, and it's highly likely we will see a sigmoid growth curve with a long tail. One of the issues is that a very large portion of Norwegians like to ski in winter (which typically requires a roof box) and to go e.g. boating or caravaning etc. in summer (which typically requires a tow hitch). Currently there are exactly zero EVs on the market that can do both of those things.
- jedberg 8y ago
  Toyota RAV4 EV: https://www.toyota.com/rav4ev/ https://www.toyota.com/rav4ev/ Tows 400+ kilos and has a roof box.
  - justsomedood 8y ago
    With tow ratings you subtract the weight inside the vehicle. At a tow rating of 800lbs you're not going to be pulling much of anything, and with a 41 kW/h battery it is not going to be going far at all either while towing. I would love to replace our ICE tow vehicle with an electric if any existed, but the electric range would drop by at least half while towing. That's a lot of stopping. As a comparison a v6 Dodge Durango's tow capacity is 6200lbs/2800kg. A v6 tow vehicle is a part-time tow vechile not intended for large loads. That durango can pull some boats and smaller camper trailers. We have used it to haul rock/gravel/stone as well. Electric would be great because the transmission wouldn't be as much of a concern but it would definitely need a lot of battery and would need a larger cooling system for the batteries and motors just like ICE tow vehicles need larger fuel tanks and larger radiators.
  - semi-extrinsic 8y ago
    For comparison, a 400 kg tow rating you get on a Fiat 500 with the 0.9 L three-cylinder petrol engine...
- 8y ago

nradov 8y ago

Those deadlines are aspirational, not realistic based on actual vehicle production capacity or energy supplies. In 2030 the majority of new passenger vehicles will still contain internal combustion engines, although those may just be components of plug-in hybrid systems. Governments will end up allowing a lot of extensions and exceptions.

silvestrov 8y ago
Then Norway has a very different interpretation of the word "aspirational". From https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/electric-car-sales-norway-2018/ https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/electric-car-sales-norway-201... > 45% of new cars were all-electric and 60% were plug-in in October 2018. The Nissan Leaf was the most popular all-electric vehicle in the market.
- melling 8y ago
  That’s because electric vehicles are heavily subsidized in Norway.
  - Reason077 8y ago
    It's not so much that electrics are subsidized. More that fossil-fuel vehicles are heavily taxed.
    - melling 8y ago
      Well, let’s clarify this: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/02/norway-electric-cars-subsidies-fossil-fuel https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/02/norway-electri... https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/12/norway-electric-vehicle-models-incentives-car-free-oslo/578932/ https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/12/norway-electric-...
      - Reason077 8y ago
        To be clear, electric vehicles in Norway cost the same or more as they do in (eg) the United States. The difference is that there are heavy taxes on fossil fuel vehicles that do not apply to electrics, making the relative difference in cost between electrics and fossils much smaller. (Yes, there are also many fringe benefits like free/discounted road tolls and HOV lane access, but as your article mentions, many of those are already being rolled back)
  - Certhas 8y ago
    So it's not aspirational, but real law backed by real money and government investment.
Certhas 8y ago
If VW offers a wide range of EVs at reasonable prices the argument that we need extensions and exceptions will be hard to make. VWs move creates a regulatory environment beneficial to VWs move. TCO of EVs is about the same now and will be considerably better than ICE in the next years. How many consumers will be willing to pay a premium for outdated technology? This could switch quickly with electric energy and power grids being the bigger bottlenecks. At least Grid operators are deeply worried about the upcoming transition.

semi-extrinsic 8y ago

FWIW the Norway one was widely reported as a ban, but it is not. The official government policy is that they "have a goal that all new cars should be zero emission (ZEV) in 2025". Nobody who's actually crunched the numbers thinks this is realistic (that we reach 100% new cars are ZEV), but maybe we'll reach 60% by 2025. Currently we're at 30% of new cars are ZEV, up from 10% in 2014, and it's highly likely we will see a sigmoid growth curve with a long tail. One of the issues is that a very large portion of Norwegians like to ski in winter (which typically requires a roof box) and to go e.g. boating or caravaning etc. in summer (which typically requires a tow hitch). Currently there are exactly zero EVs on the market that can do both of those things.

jedberg 8y ago
Toyota RAV4 EV: https://www.toyota.com/rav4ev/ https://www.toyota.com/rav4ev/ Tows 400+ kilos and has a roof box.
- justsomedood 8y ago
  With tow ratings you subtract the weight inside the vehicle. At a tow rating of 800lbs you're not going to be pulling much of anything, and with a 41 kW/h battery it is not going to be going far at all either while towing. I would love to replace our ICE tow vehicle with an electric if any existed, but the electric range would drop by at least half while towing. That's a lot of stopping. As a comparison a v6 Dodge Durango's tow capacity is 6200lbs/2800kg. A v6 tow vehicle is a part-time tow vechile not intended for large loads. That durango can pull some boats and smaller camper trailers. We have used it to haul rock/gravel/stone as well. Electric would be great because the transmission wouldn't be as much of a concern but it would definitely need a lot of battery and would need a larger cooling system for the batteries and motors just like ICE tow vehicles need larger fuel tanks and larger radiators.
- semi-extrinsic 8y ago
  For comparison, a 400 kg tow rating you get on a Fiat 500 with the 0.9 L three-cylinder petrol engine...
8y ago