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It'll be more costly for them if the EU ban all combustion consumer vehicles and VW are left unable to sell to the european market. That is beside the point th

It'll be more costly for them if the EU ban all combustion consumer vehicles and VW are left unable to sell to the european market. That is beside the point that the author of this article will be on the wrong side of history.

forinti 8y ago
I doubt that decisions of this magnitude are taken in spite of the big players or without their participation.
- Dahoon 8y ago
  Calling it a ban is a bit over the top but it is going in that direction. Many cities in the EU are banning cars that pollute a lot. I've no doubt the definition of how bad they have to pollute will be tightened over time. If you are a carmaker with no electric cars it will be the same as a ban in the end. Most (all?) countries in the EU are also either lowering/removing registration taxes on electric cars or raising it on everything else. So the decision has already been made. We are basically just in a grace period.
- adrianN 8y ago
  The big players in this case are Global Warming and air quality in cities, not the car manufacturers.
- CalRobert 8y ago
  A shame, that. A company with a large investment in a technology that causes immense harm is probably not one you want to consult on ongoing policy. Dieselgate killed people. If they'd dumped poison in the water supply and lied about it the reaction would've been far harsher, but apparently it's ok to poison people via the air.
  - dsfyu404ed 8y ago
    VW also causes immense employment and brings an immense amount of money into Germany. It's not that simple. Germany isn't a dictatorship. They can't take unilateral action that harms its populace and say "just deal, it's good for you in the long run"
    - CalRobert 8y ago
      But.... volkswagen can?
  - linksnapzz 8y ago
    The state of North Rhine/Westphalia owns like 21% of VW group. I would expect they might deprecate the statistically-implied deaths resulting from selling noncompliant cars vs. the very concrete loss of jobs and revenue should that might result from regulation.
melling 8y ago
You mean 2 decades from now? It’s a little premature to worry about an EU ban. Investing in battery R&D is probably important now. Meeting the requirements of China is also important.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- Certhas 8y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Countries_with_a_full_ban_enacted_into_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic... 2025: Norway 2030 EU: Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland, Denmark 2030 Non-EU: India, Israel --- If you take a lifetime of 20+ years for new vehicles into account, and you want to be phased out by 2050, you need to ban in 2030. Very simple. Maybe you don't need a full ban, maybe strong incentives suffice (see China). But full bans have been enacted in law in very substantial markets already.
  - nradov 8y ago
    Those deadlines are aspirational, not realistic based on actual vehicle production capacity or energy supplies. In 2030 the majority of new passenger vehicles will still contain internal combustion engines, although those may just be components of plug-in hybrid systems. Governments will end up allowing a lot of extensions and exceptions.
    - silvestrov 8y ago
      Then Norway has a very different interpretation of the word "aspirational". From https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/electric-car-sales-norway-2018/ https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/electric-car-sales-norway-201... > 45% of new cars were all-electric and 60% were plug-in in October 2018. The Nissan Leaf was the most popular all-electric vehicle in the market.
      - melling 8y ago
adrianN 8y ago
It seems more likely that the Chinese market will be the important rule setter when it comes to cars. They push electric adoption heavily.
- Brakenshire 8y ago
  I actually think there will be a dramatic uptake in Western Europe. Petrol taxation is a strong lever, a car rated at 40mpg actually gets 30mpg in real world usage, you drive that car for 100,000 miles and it costs more than £15,000 in petrol, a real world 20mpg costs more than £25,000 over the same distance. VW is planning to sell its ID hatchback for about the same as the diesel equivalent, the cost savings are far higher, the range is 200 miles plus, it can charge in 30 minutes, which most people will only use on roadtrips, when glad of the break after 3 hours of driving. By launch in 2020, a charging network will be in place across the motorway network. In Western Europe the barriers to mass adoption are fading.
  - adrianN 8y ago
    The main barrier to adoption is the lack of charging infrastructure. In cities, where EVs make most sense, nobody has a garage. IMHO the state should step in and build charging infrastructure instead of lowering taxes for EVs or subsidizing their purchase.
    - pedrocr 8y ago
      Plenty of people have parking spots even if they don't have garages. Adding a charger to those is easy. Street parking does need many more chargers.
    - Brakenshire 8y ago
      I think it goes beyond cities, in England 200 miles will get you half way across the country, even someone in suburban or rural areas could charge from home and carry on as normal 99 days out of 100. And the motorway network for that one day is being rolled out.
- hangonhn 8y ago
simonh 8y ago
Internal Combustion only vehicles are likely to be banned by 2030 and forecourt plug-in hybrids by 2035. Several member countries are aiming to eliminate combustion engine vehicles from the roads by the mid 2040s. These are mostly stated goals at this stage rather than legislation. I can't see Germany being happy signing off on rules that would kill their own auto industry.
- sandworm101 8y ago
  Nor commit to the massive electrical infrastructure improvements such a policy would necessitate. Charging ever car, truck and digger across a country isnt as simple a few charge points in parking lots. The power has to come from something. That something has to be biult by someone somewhere. Nimby means that will take decades.
  - Brakenshire 8y ago
    The majority of charging in Western Europe will happen overnight and at home, combine that with 'smart chargers', which are technologically trivial, appropriate tariffs giving a discount in exchange for flexible demand overnight, and a thirty year period to make the transition (even if all new cars were electric from 2035), and I doubt the impact on the grid will be that dramatic. You will actually likely have improved utilization of existing assets, coupled with a lot of extra revenue going to power companies, away from oil companies. Motorway charging systems, which will be a small minority of total charging, will need ongoing grid upgrades, but spikes in demand can be buffered by trickle charging batteries, and dealing with increased electricity demand can scale gradually and incrementally as the transition occurs over that 30 year period. The infrastructure improvements will likely come under national infrastructure provisions which limit planning objections. I actually think the grid transition will mostly happen without people realizing.
    - sandworm101 8y ago
      Of cars. But cars are not anywhere near the bulk of IC engine capacity. Between trucks, trains, ships and construction equipment, there is a huge amount of power that will have to come from somewhere. Those devices don't just commute twice a day then sit in a garage charging. They basically run all day, in some cases 24/7 (trucks/trains). They will need a steady supply from some sort of power plant/grid.
mtgx 8y ago
Not to mention China which is literally doing that, just gradually.

forinti 8y ago

I doubt that decisions of this magnitude are taken in spite of the big players or without their participation.

Dahoon 8y ago
Calling it a ban is a bit over the top but it is going in that direction. Many cities in the EU are banning cars that pollute a lot. I've no doubt the definition of how bad they have to pollute will be tightened over time. If you are a carmaker with no electric cars it will be the same as a ban in the end. Most (all?) countries in the EU are also either lowering/removing registration taxes on electric cars or raising it on everything else. So the decision has already been made. We are basically just in a grace period.
adrianN 8y ago
The big players in this case are Global Warming and air quality in cities, not the car manufacturers.
CalRobert 8y ago
A shame, that. A company with a large investment in a technology that causes immense harm is probably not one you want to consult on ongoing policy. Dieselgate killed people. If they'd dumped poison in the water supply and lied about it the reaction would've been far harsher, but apparently it's ok to poison people via the air.
- dsfyu404ed 8y ago
  VW also causes immense employment and brings an immense amount of money into Germany. It's not that simple. Germany isn't a dictatorship. They can't take unilateral action that harms its populace and say "just deal, it's good for you in the long run"
  - CalRobert 8y ago
    But.... volkswagen can?
- linksnapzz 8y ago
  The state of North Rhine/Westphalia owns like 21% of VW group. I would expect they might deprecate the statistically-implied deaths resulting from selling noncompliant cars vs. the very concrete loss of jobs and revenue should that might result from regulation.

melling 8y ago

You mean 2 decades from now? It’s a little premature to worry about an EU ban. Investing in battery R&D is probably important now. Meeting the requirements of China is also important.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
Certhas 8y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Countries_with_a_full_ban_enacted_into_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic... 2025: Norway 2030 EU: Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland, Denmark 2030 Non-EU: India, Israel --- If you take a lifetime of 20+ years for new vehicles into account, and you want to be phased out by 2050, you need to ban in 2030. Very simple. Maybe you don't need a full ban, maybe strong incentives suffice (see China). But full bans have been enacted in law in very substantial markets already.
- nradov 8y ago
  Those deadlines are aspirational, not realistic based on actual vehicle production capacity or energy supplies. In 2030 the majority of new passenger vehicles will still contain internal combustion engines, although those may just be components of plug-in hybrid systems. Governments will end up allowing a lot of extensions and exceptions.
  - silvestrov 8y ago
    Then Norway has a very different interpretation of the word "aspirational". From https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/electric-car-sales-norway-2018/ https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/electric-car-sales-norway-201... > 45% of new cars were all-electric and 60% were plug-in in October 2018. The Nissan Leaf was the most popular all-electric vehicle in the market.
    - melling 8y ago

adrianN 8y ago

It seems more likely that the Chinese market will be the important rule setter when it comes to cars. They push electric adoption heavily.

Brakenshire 8y ago
I actually think there will be a dramatic uptake in Western Europe. Petrol taxation is a strong lever, a car rated at 40mpg actually gets 30mpg in real world usage, you drive that car for 100,000 miles and it costs more than £15,000 in petrol, a real world 20mpg costs more than £25,000 over the same distance. VW is planning to sell its ID hatchback for about the same as the diesel equivalent, the cost savings are far higher, the range is 200 miles plus, it can charge in 30 minutes, which most people will only use on roadtrips, when glad of the break after 3 hours of driving. By launch in 2020, a charging network will be in place across the motorway network. In Western Europe the barriers to mass adoption are fading.
- adrianN 8y ago
  The main barrier to adoption is the lack of charging infrastructure. In cities, where EVs make most sense, nobody has a garage. IMHO the state should step in and build charging infrastructure instead of lowering taxes for EVs or subsidizing their purchase.
  - pedrocr 8y ago
    Plenty of people have parking spots even if they don't have garages. Adding a charger to those is easy. Street parking does need many more chargers.
  - Brakenshire 8y ago
    I think it goes beyond cities, in England 200 miles will get you half way across the country, even someone in suburban or rural areas could charge from home and carry on as normal 99 days out of 100. And the motorway network for that one day is being rolled out.
hangonhn 8y ago

simonh 8y ago

Internal Combustion only vehicles are likely to be banned by 2030 and forecourt plug-in hybrids by 2035. Several member countries are aiming to eliminate combustion engine vehicles from the roads by the mid 2040s. These are mostly stated goals at this stage rather than legislation. I can't see Germany being happy signing off on rules that would kill their own auto industry.

sandworm101 8y ago
Nor commit to the massive electrical infrastructure improvements such a policy would necessitate. Charging ever car, truck and digger across a country isnt as simple a few charge points in parking lots. The power has to come from something. That something has to be biult by someone somewhere. Nimby means that will take decades.
- Brakenshire 8y ago
  The majority of charging in Western Europe will happen overnight and at home, combine that with 'smart chargers', which are technologically trivial, appropriate tariffs giving a discount in exchange for flexible demand overnight, and a thirty year period to make the transition (even if all new cars were electric from 2035), and I doubt the impact on the grid will be that dramatic. You will actually likely have improved utilization of existing assets, coupled with a lot of extra revenue going to power companies, away from oil companies. Motorway charging systems, which will be a small minority of total charging, will need ongoing grid upgrades, but spikes in demand can be buffered by trickle charging batteries, and dealing with increased electricity demand can scale gradually and incrementally as the transition occurs over that 30 year period. The infrastructure improvements will likely come under national infrastructure provisions which limit planning objections. I actually think the grid transition will mostly happen without people realizing.
  - sandworm101 8y ago
    Of cars. But cars are not anywhere near the bulk of IC engine capacity. Between trucks, trains, ships and construction equipment, there is a huge amount of power that will have to come from somewhere. Those devices don't just commute twice a day then sit in a garage charging. They basically run all day, in some cases 24/7 (trucks/trains). They will need a steady supply from some sort of power plant/grid.

mtgx 8y ago

Not to mention China which is literally doing that, just gradually.