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I really love this quote from the end of the article: There is also a legitimate debate about whether or not experience curves inherently capture technological
by saidajigumi 8y ago
I really love this quote from the end of the article:
There is also a legitimate debate about whether or not experience curves inherently capture technological step-changes. Put simply, something that looks like a future breakthrough today might end up simply being another point on the curve, by the time it is developed and engineered into a viable product and brought to market in a decade’s time.
Sometimes this is definitely not the case, e.g. the Moore's-law-like curve of network speed improvements[1] tend to occur in steps, related to the need to upgrade both infrastructure and the endpoints to achieve a new speed tier.
[1] pick your domain: LAN, WiFi, cellular
- Dylan16807 8y agoThe wireless techs usually have a lot of refinement over time, so that the real-world speed you get for a price is a lot smoother than a step function on revisions. LAN tech is isolated enough that each link upgrades in a step function, but bigger paths are a function of the price of multiple links and also smooth out.