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Teslas are finally getting close to good enough for the average consumer. The $35k price rag is still the biggest hurdle. Once they hit the $25k mark and can pr

Teslas are finally getting close to good enough for the average consumer. The $35k price rag is still the biggest hurdle. Once they hit the $25k mark and can produce a decent volume of them, it will finally hit the point of no return. Why buy a Camry when you can have a cheaper to operate and maintain electric car that is also much safer? And once a used Tesla is an option, other manufacturers pretty much will have to offer similar products. I think we will hit that inflection in about 10 years.

jmeekr 8y ago
I doubt $25k is feasible in the short term.. maybe in 10 years due to production efficiencies but then we'd also be factoring in inflation so it could be a wash. But even more exciting is how much more advanced autonomous will be in 10 years - it might even not make sense to own your own vehicle, just summon one instead.
josephjrobison 8y ago
$26,950 with incentives and gas savings - https://3.tesla.com/model3/design https://3.tesla.com/model3/design
- rileymat2 8y ago
  When I saw that site a few days ago, including gas savings in the price seemed somewhat dishonest. Including government incentives makes sense, but not gas savings.
  - b_tterc_p 8y ago
    Counterpoint: car prices should be required to estimate annual upkeep and insurance costs next to the sticker price. Tesla is cherry picking here, but having this data known to consumers would be a positive.
    - javagram 8y ago
      The standard car window sticker I’ve seen at normal car dealerships does have information on the expected gas costs. https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fuel_economy_label_EPA_2008.jpg https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fuel_economy_label... TCO information is probably harder to estimate but if it were done in a standardized way Tesla would probably suffer given how unreliable their cars are and all the maintenance horror stories of cars being in the shop for months and months due to backlogs and backordered parts... Consumer Reports and other independent agencies do try to estimate some of this I think.
    - Dylan16807 8y ago
      That means you raise the prices of both cars to compare, but you raise the Tesla less. It's still misleading to show it as a reduction, unlike the incentives.
  - sliken 8y ago
    The display both, I just wish they would label it better. Something like "cost to buy and own for 50k miles".
pedrocr 8y ago
> The $35k price rag is still the biggest hurdle. Once they hit the $25k mark and can produce a decent volume of them, it will finally hit the point of no return. Apparently 35k is already the average car price in the US, so the model 3 is already a mass-market car. The gas and other operating savings are also significant to further bring that value down so I think we're already comfortably past the point of no return. It's all ramp up from now on. If I was in the shoes of a traditional car maker I'd be very worried. Tesla may still fail but EVs will take over soon either way.
- IgorPartola 8y ago
  Huh? I mean if you average top line BMWs with Yarises then maybe. What you have to look at is the average size of a car loan. That is probably a much bette indicator of how much people can afford to spend on a vehicle.
  - pedrocr 8y ago
    I mean of all cars. Here's an example of fresh data. 37k is the average purchase price for January 2019 and there aren't many brands/categories below 30k: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-prices-up-more-than-4-percent-year-over-year-for-january-2019-on-tesla-full-size-trucks-according-to-kelley-blue-book-300787968.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-pri...
    - IgorPartola 8y ago
      Yeah but you can’t compare the Model 3 to all cars. It’s closest equivalent is a mid sized luxury car. And most consumers are not getting those. It’s real competitor is a mid sized sedan aka the Camry. Average transaction price for those is $25k. You can’t include pickup trucks in the comparison as there is no way you can use any Tesla models as a pickup.
      - pedrocr 8y ago
        The point is that what people are willing to pay for a car is already well within the range of a Model 3. If you wanted to compare like for like the actual comparison is a BMW 3 Series or Mercedes C Class, not a Camry. But you can definitely include pickups in the comparison since most people that buy a pickup or SUV have no actual use for them, it's just a fashion symbol. And yet here's the Model Y on the way. The model 3 is already a feasible mass market car in the US any way you run the numbers. Even a Camry goes to over 35k. If you see the numbers I quoted there are now very few car types that average below 30k.
hopler 8y ago
I don't know why Tesla fans ignore that Chevy and Nissan are already big in the pure EV market at mass market prices, and almost every manufacturer had a plug-in hybrid offering for in-town electric-only and gas for long trips.
- telchar 8y ago
  It's because GM can't produce Bolts without a significant loss (for now) and Leafs aren't taken very seriously by most people because of their shorter range, fast battery/value degradation and frankly, funky appearance. Any many of us are energized (no pun intended) by moving completely away from gas. So while plug-in hybrids are better than ICE cars, we don't get excited about them the same way.
- cycrutchfield 8y ago
  In the pure EV market isn’t Tesla eating everybody else’s lunch? One stat I saw from Sept 2018 was that Tesla had something like 2/3 of the market share for EVs in the US.
- sliken 8y ago
  Nissan leaf seems like a joke. Batteries are degrading quite quickly, the solution? Update the battery display from 5 segment to 4, so you can't tell when the battery is below 80% within 3 years (which triggers the warranty replacement). Chevy is better, but not great. Who wants a hybrid? Worse acceleration, MUCH more complexity (two drivetrains), still go to gas stations, still need oil changes, still noisy, etc. Try a $35k leaf and a $35k tesla sometime.
azhenley 8y ago
I'm actually worried about when they do hit the lower priced market. One company doesn't have to satisfy everyone. Tesla has done a great job at satisfying the luxury/mid-to-high market. I can't think of a company that does well across market segments from 20k to 100k, and I wouldn't expect them to.
magnetic 8y ago
It is already a mass market car. Model 3 is the best selling car in California for the second half of 2018. By best selling, I don't mean in the EV category, I mean above Civic, Accord, Camry, Corolla. See https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/23/tesla-model-3-was-top-selling-car-in-california-in-2nd-half-of-2018-cleantechnica-report/ https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/23/tesla-model-3-was-top-s... ...and the price just dropped, so you can expect even more competitiveness than the data from 2H2018.
- sjwright 8y ago
  That's a great statistic and I don't want to diminish it in any way, but part of the reason why the Model 3 is selling high right now is because sales* that were made over a multiple year period have been clumped into a shorter period. * When I say sales, I mean the time when Telsa "won" the customer, not when contracts were signed or they received full payment.
  - magnetic 8y ago
    You are right. I wonder how long it'll take for the production/sales to reach "steady state", ie when the pre-order bubble has been absorbed.

jmeekr 8y ago

I doubt $25k is feasible in the short term.. maybe in 10 years due to production efficiencies but then we'd also be factoring in inflation so it could be a wash. But even more exciting is how much more advanced autonomous will be in 10 years - it might even not make sense to own your own vehicle, just summon one instead.

josephjrobison 8y ago

$26,950 with incentives and gas savings - https://3.tesla.com/model3/design https://3.tesla.com/model3/design

rileymat2 8y ago
When I saw that site a few days ago, including gas savings in the price seemed somewhat dishonest. Including government incentives makes sense, but not gas savings.
- b_tterc_p 8y ago
  Counterpoint: car prices should be required to estimate annual upkeep and insurance costs next to the sticker price. Tesla is cherry picking here, but having this data known to consumers would be a positive.
  - javagram 8y ago
    The standard car window sticker I’ve seen at normal car dealerships does have information on the expected gas costs. https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fuel_economy_label_EPA_2008.jpg https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fuel_economy_label... TCO information is probably harder to estimate but if it were done in a standardized way Tesla would probably suffer given how unreliable their cars are and all the maintenance horror stories of cars being in the shop for months and months due to backlogs and backordered parts... Consumer Reports and other independent agencies do try to estimate some of this I think.
  - Dylan16807 8y ago
    That means you raise the prices of both cars to compare, but you raise the Tesla less. It's still misleading to show it as a reduction, unlike the incentives.
- sliken 8y ago
  The display both, I just wish they would label it better. Something like "cost to buy and own for 50k miles".

pedrocr 8y ago

> The $35k price rag is still the biggest hurdle. Once they hit the $25k mark and can produce a decent volume of them, it will finally hit the point of no return. Apparently 35k is already the average car price in the US, so the model 3 is already a mass-market car. The gas and other operating savings are also significant to further bring that value down so I think we're already comfortably past the point of no return. It's all ramp up from now on. If I was in the shoes of a traditional car maker I'd be very worried. Tesla may still fail but EVs will take over soon either way.

IgorPartola 8y ago
Huh? I mean if you average top line BMWs with Yarises then maybe. What you have to look at is the average size of a car loan. That is probably a much bette indicator of how much people can afford to spend on a vehicle.
- pedrocr 8y ago
  I mean of all cars. Here's an example of fresh data. 37k is the average purchase price for January 2019 and there aren't many brands/categories below 30k: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-prices-up-more-than-4-percent-year-over-year-for-january-2019-on-tesla-full-size-trucks-according-to-kelley-blue-book-300787968.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-pri...
  - IgorPartola 8y ago
    Yeah but you can’t compare the Model 3 to all cars. It’s closest equivalent is a mid sized luxury car. And most consumers are not getting those. It’s real competitor is a mid sized sedan aka the Camry. Average transaction price for those is $25k. You can’t include pickup trucks in the comparison as there is no way you can use any Tesla models as a pickup.
    - pedrocr 8y ago
      The point is that what people are willing to pay for a car is already well within the range of a Model 3. If you wanted to compare like for like the actual comparison is a BMW 3 Series or Mercedes C Class, not a Camry. But you can definitely include pickups in the comparison since most people that buy a pickup or SUV have no actual use for them, it's just a fashion symbol. And yet here's the Model Y on the way. The model 3 is already a feasible mass market car in the US any way you run the numbers. Even a Camry goes to over 35k. If you see the numbers I quoted there are now very few car types that average below 30k.

hopler 8y ago

I don't know why Tesla fans ignore that Chevy and Nissan are already big in the pure EV market at mass market prices, and almost every manufacturer had a plug-in hybrid offering for in-town electric-only and gas for long trips.

telchar 8y ago
It's because GM can't produce Bolts without a significant loss (for now) and Leafs aren't taken very seriously by most people because of their shorter range, fast battery/value degradation and frankly, funky appearance. Any many of us are energized (no pun intended) by moving completely away from gas. So while plug-in hybrids are better than ICE cars, we don't get excited about them the same way.
cycrutchfield 8y ago
In the pure EV market isn’t Tesla eating everybody else’s lunch? One stat I saw from Sept 2018 was that Tesla had something like 2/3 of the market share for EVs in the US.
sliken 8y ago
Nissan leaf seems like a joke. Batteries are degrading quite quickly, the solution? Update the battery display from 5 segment to 4, so you can't tell when the battery is below 80% within 3 years (which triggers the warranty replacement). Chevy is better, but not great. Who wants a hybrid? Worse acceleration, MUCH more complexity (two drivetrains), still go to gas stations, still need oil changes, still noisy, etc. Try a $35k leaf and a $35k tesla sometime.

azhenley 8y ago

I'm actually worried about when they do hit the lower priced market. One company doesn't have to satisfy everyone. Tesla has done a great job at satisfying the luxury/mid-to-high market. I can't think of a company that does well across market segments from 20k to 100k, and I wouldn't expect them to.

magnetic 8y ago

It is already a mass market car. Model 3 is the best selling car in California for the second half of 2018. By best selling, I don't mean in the EV category, I mean above Civic, Accord, Camry, Corolla. See https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/23/tesla-model-3-was-top-selling-car-in-california-in-2nd-half-of-2018-cleantechnica-report/ https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/23/tesla-model-3-was-top-s... ...and the price just dropped, so you can expect even more competitiveness than the data from 2H2018.

sjwright 8y ago
That's a great statistic and I don't want to diminish it in any way, but part of the reason why the Model 3 is selling high right now is because sales* that were made over a multiple year period have been clumped into a shorter period. * When I say sales, I mean the time when Telsa "won" the customer, not when contracts were signed or they received full payment.
- magnetic 8y ago
  You are right. I wonder how long it'll take for the production/sales to reach "steady state", ie when the pre-order bubble has been absorbed.