10 ms·

Tesla Model Y will be unveiled March 14th

62 points by rising-sky 8y ago

IgorPartola 8y ago
Teslas are finally getting close to good enough for the average consumer. The $35k price rag is still the biggest hurdle. Once they hit the $25k mark and can produce a decent volume of them, it will finally hit the point of no return. Why buy a Camry when you can have a cheaper to operate and maintain electric car that is also much safer? And once a used Tesla is an option, other manufacturers pretty much will have to offer similar products. I think we will hit that inflection in about 10 years.
- jmeekr 8y ago
  I doubt $25k is feasible in the short term.. maybe in 10 years due to production efficiencies but then we'd also be factoring in inflation so it could be a wash. But even more exciting is how much more advanced autonomous will be in 10 years - it might even not make sense to own your own vehicle, just summon one instead.
- josephjrobison 8y ago
  $26,950 with incentives and gas savings - https://3.tesla.com/model3/design https://3.tesla.com/model3/design
  - rileymat2 8y ago
    When I saw that site a few days ago, including gas savings in the price seemed somewhat dishonest. Including government incentives makes sense, but not gas savings.
    - b_tterc_p 8y ago
      Counterpoint: car prices should be required to estimate annual upkeep and insurance costs next to the sticker price. Tesla is cherry picking here, but having this data known to consumers would be a positive.
      - javagram 8y ago
        The standard car window sticker I’ve seen at normal car dealerships does have information on the expected gas costs. https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fuel_economy_label_EPA_2008.jpg https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fuel_economy_label... TCO information is probably harder to estimate but if it were done in a standardized way Tesla would probably suffer given how unreliable their cars are and all the maintenance horror stories of cars being in the shop for months and months due to backlogs and backordered parts... Consumer Reports and other independent agencies do try to estimate some of this I think.
      - Dylan16807 8y ago
        That means you raise the prices of both cars to compare, but you raise the Tesla less. It's still misleading to show it as a reduction, unlike the incentives.
    - sliken 8y ago
      The display both, I just wish they would label it better. Something like "cost to buy and own for 50k miles".
- pedrocr 8y ago
  > The $35k price rag is still the biggest hurdle. Once they hit the $25k mark and can produce a decent volume of them, it will finally hit the point of no return. Apparently 35k is already the average car price in the US, so the model 3 is already a mass-market car. The gas and other operating savings are also significant to further bring that value down so I think we're already comfortably past the point of no return. It's all ramp up from now on. If I was in the shoes of a traditional car maker I'd be very worried. Tesla may still fail but EVs will take over soon either way.
  - IgorPartola 8y ago
    Huh? I mean if you average top line BMWs with Yarises then maybe. What you have to look at is the average size of a car loan. That is probably a much bette indicator of how much people can afford to spend on a vehicle.
    - pedrocr 8y ago
      I mean of all cars. Here's an example of fresh data. 37k is the average purchase price for January 2019 and there aren't many brands/categories below 30k: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-prices-up-more-than-4-percent-year-over-year-for-january-2019-on-tesla-full-size-trucks-according-to-kelley-blue-book-300787968.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-pri...
      - IgorPartola 8y ago
        Yeah but you can’t compare the Model 3 to all cars. It’s closest equivalent is a mid sized luxury car. And most consumers are not getting those. It’s real competitor is a mid sized sedan aka the Camry. Average transaction price for those is $25k. You can’t include pickup trucks in the comparison as there is no way you can use any Tesla models as a pickup.
        pedrocr 8y ago
        The point is that what people are willing to pay for a car is already well within the range of a Model 3. If you wanted to compare like for like the actual comparison is a BMW 3 Series or Mercedes C Class, not a Camry. But you can definitely include pickups in the comparison since most people that buy a pickup or SUV have no actual use for them, it's just a fashion symbol. And yet here's the Model Y on the way. The model 3 is already a feasible mass market car in the US any way you run the numbers. Even a Camry goes to over 35k. If you see the numbers I quoted there are now very few car types that average below 30k.
- hopler 8y ago
  I don't know why Tesla fans ignore that Chevy and Nissan are already big in the pure EV market at mass market prices, and almost every manufacturer had a plug-in hybrid offering for in-town electric-only and gas for long trips.
  - telchar 8y ago
    It's because GM can't produce Bolts without a significant loss (for now) and Leafs aren't taken very seriously by most people because of their shorter range, fast battery/value degradation and frankly, funky appearance. Any many of us are energized (no pun intended) by moving completely away from gas. So while plug-in hybrids are better than ICE cars, we don't get excited about them the same way.
  - cycrutchfield 8y ago
    In the pure EV market isn’t Tesla eating everybody else’s lunch? One stat I saw from Sept 2018 was that Tesla had something like 2/3 of the market share for EVs in the US.
  - sliken 8y ago
    Nissan leaf seems like a joke. Batteries are degrading quite quickly, the solution? Update the battery display from 5 segment to 4, so you can't tell when the battery is below 80% within 3 years (which triggers the warranty replacement). Chevy is better, but not great. Who wants a hybrid? Worse acceleration, MUCH more complexity (two drivetrains), still go to gas stations, still need oil changes, still noisy, etc. Try a $35k leaf and a $35k tesla sometime.
- azhenley 8y ago
  I'm actually worried about when they do hit the lower priced market. One company doesn't have to satisfy everyone. Tesla has done a great job at satisfying the luxury/mid-to-high market. I can't think of a company that does well across market segments from 20k to 100k, and I wouldn't expect them to.
- magnetic 8y ago
  It is already a mass market car. Model 3 is the best selling car in California for the second half of 2018. By best selling, I don't mean in the EV category, I mean above Civic, Accord, Camry, Corolla. See https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/23/tesla-model-3-was-top-selling-car-in-california-in-2nd-half-of-2018-cleantechnica-report/ https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/23/tesla-model-3-was-top-s... ...and the price just dropped, so you can expect even more competitiveness than the data from 2H2018.
  - sjwright 8y ago
    That's a great statistic and I don't want to diminish it in any way, but part of the reason why the Model 3 is selling high right now is because sales* that were made over a multiple year period have been clumped into a shorter period. * When I say sales, I mean the time when Telsa "won" the customer, not when contracts were signed or they received full payment.
    - magnetic 8y ago
      You are right. I wonder how long it'll take for the production/sales to reach "steady state", ie when the pre-order bubble has been absorbed.
havermeyer 8y ago
I'm curious about the options that they'll offer initially. With the Model 3, Tesla only sold the long-range, premium version at first, which IIRC is more profitable than the basic $35k version. Maybe they'll repeat this with the Y and sell just a more expensive model first as well.
- greglindahl 8y ago
  The S and X both released premium versions at first, so if Y did the same thing, it would be the 4th in a row. For Roadster I don't remember, so maybe the 5th in a row.
mrburton 8y ago
Am I the only one who sees the release date and think "Cute, they released it on Pi Day :)"
- chrisseaton 8y ago
  14.3?
  - ex3ndr 8y ago
    It's america: 3/14
    - sjwright 8y ago
      In the rest of the world, Pi day is the 3rd of February next year. Overflow error.
      - derekp7 8y ago
        I would think it would be July 22 (22/7)
coke12 8y ago
It's ~200 miles each way from SF to Tahoe. I imagine that's a pretty important number for people considering an electric SUV. Model 3 advertises a 325mi range, and Musk says the Y will get about 10% less than the 3.
- dogsgobork 8y ago
  With the altitude change I wouldn't expect 200 miles of range to be sufficient for SF->Tahoe, reverse might work.
  - sliken 8y ago
    0.9*325 = 292.5 miles. A friend tracked his battery use on a trip from SF -> Tahoe, the climb took around 30 miles of range, which I thought was pretty reasonable. He climbs two 7200 feet passes, and was driving quite quickly.
- huebnerob 8y ago
  The cold actually reduces range considerably and increases charging times. I’ve even heard reports of being unable to charge a Tesla through a standard 120VAC outlet if the weather is below freezing.
  - azhenley 8y ago
    I haven't had a problem with 120V. They have always given me 3-5 miles of charge per hour regardless of weather. But I have had superchargers go at that same rate when it is cold. I quickly learned my lesson to charge in the evening or after driving for a while instead of first thing in the morning :)
  - nathanaldensr 8y ago
    You should read about what happens to lithium batteries when you charge them at below freezing temperatures.
- notatoad 8y ago
  >I imagine that's a pretty important number for people considering an electric SUV A very small subset of people, sure. Tesla buyers also exist outside of SF.
Nicksil 8y ago
S 3 X Y This was intentional and I'm just now catching on, right?
- jameskilton 8y ago
  The only reason the Model 3 is named that is Ford owns "Model E" and said that Tesla couldn't use it. And yes, this has been Musk's plan since the Roadster.
  - Nicksil 8y ago
    Ah, that makes sense. Thanks!
  - hopler 8y ago
    Before today, I'd only heard the S3X was the plan.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
aboutruby 8y ago
Ongoing reddit thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/awzd94/model_y_unveil_event_on_march_14_at_la_design/ https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/awzd94/model_y...
keyle 8y ago
Tesla will produce in China? Interesting they're finally going that route.
- reitzensteinm 8y ago
  Note that this is just following in the footsteps of the Model 3, which will also have the low end models manufactured in China.
- dan-robertson 8y ago
  Cars tend to be affected a lot by tariffs. A good way to make more money selling cars Is to sell more cars (at a similar margin) and a good way to do that is to make the cars cheaper (at a similar margin) and a good way to do that is by cutting out tariffs (and possibly reducing transportation costs too). Making cars (and batteries) in China is a statement that Tesla think their cars will be more popular in China if they can reduce the price and that will justify the cost of making the factory there.
azhenley 8y ago
Why did this get marked as dupe even though it is the only one I have seen on the front page? And the only one I can find at all through search.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]

62 points by rising-sky 8y ago

Teslas are finally getting close to good enough for the average consumer. The $35k price rag is still the biggest hurdle. Once they hit the $25k mark and can produce a decent volume of them, it will finally hit the point of no return. Why buy a Camry when you can have a cheaper to operate and maintain electric car that is also much safer? And once a used Tesla is an option, other manufacturers pretty much will have to offer similar products. I think we will hit that inflection in about 10 years.

jmeekr 8y ago
I doubt $25k is feasible in the short term.. maybe in 10 years due to production efficiencies but then we'd also be factoring in inflation so it could be a wash. But even more exciting is how much more advanced autonomous will be in 10 years - it might even not make sense to own your own vehicle, just summon one instead.
josephjrobison 8y ago
$26,950 with incentives and gas savings - https://3.tesla.com/model3/design https://3.tesla.com/model3/design
- rileymat2 8y ago
  When I saw that site a few days ago, including gas savings in the price seemed somewhat dishonest. Including government incentives makes sense, but not gas savings.
  - b_tterc_p 8y ago
    Counterpoint: car prices should be required to estimate annual upkeep and insurance costs next to the sticker price. Tesla is cherry picking here, but having this data known to consumers would be a positive.
    - javagram 8y ago
      The standard car window sticker I’ve seen at normal car dealerships does have information on the expected gas costs. https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fuel_economy_label_EPA_2008.jpg https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fuel_economy_label... TCO information is probably harder to estimate but if it were done in a standardized way Tesla would probably suffer given how unreliable their cars are and all the maintenance horror stories of cars being in the shop for months and months due to backlogs and backordered parts... Consumer Reports and other independent agencies do try to estimate some of this I think.
    - Dylan16807 8y ago
      That means you raise the prices of both cars to compare, but you raise the Tesla less. It's still misleading to show it as a reduction, unlike the incentives.
  - sliken 8y ago
    The display both, I just wish they would label it better. Something like "cost to buy and own for 50k miles".
pedrocr 8y ago
> The $35k price rag is still the biggest hurdle. Once they hit the $25k mark and can produce a decent volume of them, it will finally hit the point of no return. Apparently 35k is already the average car price in the US, so the model 3 is already a mass-market car. The gas and other operating savings are also significant to further bring that value down so I think we're already comfortably past the point of no return. It's all ramp up from now on. If I was in the shoes of a traditional car maker I'd be very worried. Tesla may still fail but EVs will take over soon either way.
- IgorPartola 8y ago
  Huh? I mean if you average top line BMWs with Yarises then maybe. What you have to look at is the average size of a car loan. That is probably a much bette indicator of how much people can afford to spend on a vehicle.
  - pedrocr 8y ago
    I mean of all cars. Here's an example of fresh data. 37k is the average purchase price for January 2019 and there aren't many brands/categories below 30k: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-prices-up-more-than-4-percent-year-over-year-for-january-2019-on-tesla-full-size-trucks-according-to-kelley-blue-book-300787968.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-pri...
    - IgorPartola 8y ago
      Yeah but you can’t compare the Model 3 to all cars. It’s closest equivalent is a mid sized luxury car. And most consumers are not getting those. It’s real competitor is a mid sized sedan aka the Camry. Average transaction price for those is $25k. You can’t include pickup trucks in the comparison as there is no way you can use any Tesla models as a pickup.
      - pedrocr 8y ago
        The point is that what people are willing to pay for a car is already well within the range of a Model 3. If you wanted to compare like for like the actual comparison is a BMW 3 Series or Mercedes C Class, not a Camry. But you can definitely include pickups in the comparison since most people that buy a pickup or SUV have no actual use for them, it's just a fashion symbol. And yet here's the Model Y on the way. The model 3 is already a feasible mass market car in the US any way you run the numbers. Even a Camry goes to over 35k. If you see the numbers I quoted there are now very few car types that average below 30k.
hopler 8y ago
I don't know why Tesla fans ignore that Chevy and Nissan are already big in the pure EV market at mass market prices, and almost every manufacturer had a plug-in hybrid offering for in-town electric-only and gas for long trips.
- telchar 8y ago
  It's because GM can't produce Bolts without a significant loss (for now) and Leafs aren't taken very seriously by most people because of their shorter range, fast battery/value degradation and frankly, funky appearance. Any many of us are energized (no pun intended) by moving completely away from gas. So while plug-in hybrids are better than ICE cars, we don't get excited about them the same way.
- cycrutchfield 8y ago
  In the pure EV market isn’t Tesla eating everybody else’s lunch? One stat I saw from Sept 2018 was that Tesla had something like 2/3 of the market share for EVs in the US.
- sliken 8y ago
  Nissan leaf seems like a joke. Batteries are degrading quite quickly, the solution? Update the battery display from 5 segment to 4, so you can't tell when the battery is below 80% within 3 years (which triggers the warranty replacement). Chevy is better, but not great. Who wants a hybrid? Worse acceleration, MUCH more complexity (two drivetrains), still go to gas stations, still need oil changes, still noisy, etc. Try a $35k leaf and a $35k tesla sometime.
azhenley 8y ago
I'm actually worried about when they do hit the lower priced market. One company doesn't have to satisfy everyone. Tesla has done a great job at satisfying the luxury/mid-to-high market. I can't think of a company that does well across market segments from 20k to 100k, and I wouldn't expect them to.
magnetic 8y ago
It is already a mass market car. Model 3 is the best selling car in California for the second half of 2018. By best selling, I don't mean in the EV category, I mean above Civic, Accord, Camry, Corolla. See https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/23/tesla-model-3-was-top-selling-car-in-california-in-2nd-half-of-2018-cleantechnica-report/ https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/23/tesla-model-3-was-top-s... ...and the price just dropped, so you can expect even more competitiveness than the data from 2H2018.
- sjwright 8y ago
  That's a great statistic and I don't want to diminish it in any way, but part of the reason why the Model 3 is selling high right now is because sales* that were made over a multiple year period have been clumped into a shorter period. * When I say sales, I mean the time when Telsa "won" the customer, not when contracts were signed or they received full payment.
  - magnetic 8y ago
    You are right. I wonder how long it'll take for the production/sales to reach "steady state", ie when the pre-order bubble has been absorbed.

havermeyer 8y ago

I'm curious about the options that they'll offer initially. With the Model 3, Tesla only sold the long-range, premium version at first, which IIRC is more profitable than the basic $35k version. Maybe they'll repeat this with the Y and sell just a more expensive model first as well.

greglindahl 8y ago
The S and X both released premium versions at first, so if Y did the same thing, it would be the 4th in a row. For Roadster I don't remember, so maybe the 5th in a row.

mrburton 8y ago

Am I the only one who sees the release date and think "Cute, they released it on Pi Day :)"

chrisseaton 8y ago
14.3?
- ex3ndr 8y ago
  It's america: 3/14
  - sjwright 8y ago
    In the rest of the world, Pi day is the 3rd of February next year. Overflow error.
    - derekp7 8y ago
      I would think it would be July 22 (22/7)

coke12 8y ago

It's ~200 miles each way from SF to Tahoe. I imagine that's a pretty important number for people considering an electric SUV. Model 3 advertises a 325mi range, and Musk says the Y will get about 10% less than the 3.

dogsgobork 8y ago
With the altitude change I wouldn't expect 200 miles of range to be sufficient for SF->Tahoe, reverse might work.
- sliken 8y ago
  0.9*325 = 292.5 miles. A friend tracked his battery use on a trip from SF -> Tahoe, the climb took around 30 miles of range, which I thought was pretty reasonable. He climbs two 7200 feet passes, and was driving quite quickly.
huebnerob 8y ago
The cold actually reduces range considerably and increases charging times. I’ve even heard reports of being unable to charge a Tesla through a standard 120VAC outlet if the weather is below freezing.
- azhenley 8y ago
  I haven't had a problem with 120V. They have always given me 3-5 miles of charge per hour regardless of weather. But I have had superchargers go at that same rate when it is cold. I quickly learned my lesson to charge in the evening or after driving for a while instead of first thing in the morning :)
- nathanaldensr 8y ago
  You should read about what happens to lithium batteries when you charge them at below freezing temperatures.
notatoad 8y ago
>I imagine that's a pretty important number for people considering an electric SUV A very small subset of people, sure. Tesla buyers also exist outside of SF.

Nicksil 8y ago

S 3 X Y This was intentional and I'm just now catching on, right?

jameskilton 8y ago
The only reason the Model 3 is named that is Ford owns "Model E" and said that Tesla couldn't use it. And yes, this has been Musk's plan since the Roadster.
- Nicksil 8y ago
  Ah, that makes sense. Thanks!
- hopler 8y ago
  Before today, I'd only heard the S3X was the plan.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]

aboutruby 8y ago

Ongoing reddit thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/awzd94/model_y_unveil_event_on_march_14_at_la_design/ https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/awzd94/model_y...

keyle 8y ago

Tesla will produce in China? Interesting they're finally going that route.

reitzensteinm 8y ago
Note that this is just following in the footsteps of the Model 3, which will also have the low end models manufactured in China.
dan-robertson 8y ago
Cars tend to be affected a lot by tariffs. A good way to make more money selling cars Is to sell more cars (at a similar margin) and a good way to do that is to make the cars cheaper (at a similar margin) and a good way to do that is by cutting out tariffs (and possibly reducing transportation costs too). Making cars (and batteries) in China is a statement that Tesla think their cars will be more popular in China if they can reduce the price and that will justify the cost of making the factory there.

azhenley 8y ago

Why did this get marked as dupe even though it is the only one I have seen on the front page? And the only one I can find at all through search.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]