6 ms·

As people flock to become programmers, as a population we will become increasingly technologically literate. Sooner or later we will enter an age where programm

As people flock to become programmers, as a population we will become increasingly technologically literate. Sooner or later we will enter an age where programming is as second nature as writing. Communication at the end of the day is a way to get people to understand what we want. Programming is very similar only directed at machines, and as machines continue to replace people in trivial (and not so trivial) tasks, that will be the lingua franca. And yes, it will be javascript.

sokoloff 8y ago
The population who currently struggles with its/it's and they're/their/there, basic (con)sequential logic, and even universal remotes is unlikely to become productive in anything like our current text-based languages. For this flocking to happen, it's going to look more like a spreadsheet, block language (Scratch-esque), or Hypercard type system than a text language. Even there, I don't expect it to become a mainstream activity.
netsharc 8y ago
I've read the assertion that the spreadsheet is the first "programming environment" for the general population, and I like the idea. Input some numbers into 2 or more cells and the most basic function would be that the output is the sum of these numbers, displayed in another cell. https://nodered.org/ https://nodered.org/ offers a drag and drop environment, although indeed the general public would not understand the nodes ("TCP, mqtt, websocket?"), if they could make it more general it would be "easy" to make branches, which is what an if-else-statement is.
intertextuality 8y ago
I think you have a biased outlook, to be honest. For every handful of programmers I know, I know at least 100 others who maybe can barely use their computer besides basic apps. Programming is still not intuitive (nor enjoyable) for the vast majority of people, and I believe it will stay that way.
- petercooper 8y ago
  Agreed, I think programming as a skill will follow a similar arc to automotive engineering. Early on it was highly specialized, but from the 50s-80s it was generally expected that you knew how to maintain your car and would do the basic jobs yourself (oil, tires, maybe even filters). But now? A lot of people now would even call out AAA to change a wheel.
  - pbhjpbhj 8y ago
    Cheap tyre iron included with your vehicle vs nuts over-tightened with commercial pneumatic wrench ... it's not that unlikely that the tyre-iron breaks. If it doesn't you may be unable to loosen the nuts. It's pretty reasonable to call out a mechanic. If you're doing anything complicated you have to wrangle the vehicle computer. I expect you're right, computers will get more complex, more proprietary, less open, less likely to use open standards, companies will do more to prevent users adapting or repairing them.
- FreeFull 8y ago
  I think the vast majority of people isn't even aware that programming is a thing. Back when computers used to present people with a BASIC prompt, people had a better chance of finding out about it and getting into it.
  - intertextuality 8y ago
    These days more people know about it in general because of the high salaries programmers earn. So in time I can see it becoming somewhat similar to wanting to be an engineer, doctor, or lawyer. Except those fields may more accessible even in the future.
- bluGill 8y ago
  I don't want it to change by much. Yes we need more programmers, but we also need more doctors. It is not practical to become a great doctor and a great programmer. Those are but two of that millions of different jobs that are required for modern society to function.
xkcd-sucks 8y ago
Yeah but (in "modern first world countries") how many people can and do solder a wire or turn a wrench or effectively give directions?
base698 8y ago
We thought this 20 years ago sure, but I think we have enough evidence at this point that people are going to drool on their iPad playing Candy Crush instead of hacking emacs. I believe Marvin Minskey was quoted in "The Dream Machine": > Computers may be a bicycle for the mind, but most peoples mental output is zero. 0 * x is still zero!
gtycomb 8y ago
Basic plumbing may be picked up by almost anyone and by and large we call a professional plumber to fix the leak.
thrownaway954 8y ago
You do realize that the author was a programmer before becoming a baker.
- rekshaw 8y ago
  Yes, hence my point! I believe we will see more and more of this. Today programming is seen as a skilled art that only the few can comprehend, much like writing was back in ancient times. And so, only a programmer can effectively apply custom technology to non-technical tasks like baking. In the future, programming will be more accessible, and potentially be so common and part of the upbringing of children that anyone will be able to program simple things they need. I also see the counter-argument that this is utopian and people will just get more and more stupid. But one can only hope it is not the case! :)
  - zrobotics 8y ago
    Why must programming be so universal? Look at the number of people who would balk at a simple task like replacing a plumbing fixture or a light fixture. This isn't implying that these people are 'stupid', it just isn't a skill that they have decided is worthwhile to learn. Changing the oil in your car isn't hard to learn, and certainly isn't filtering out the stupid, but there are just a lot of people who simply don't feel it is worth learning how to do. And programming isn't any different--it simply isn't a universal enough skill. Sure, it is essentially required to know basic arithmetic and literacy to function in a modern society, but I don't think that programming is a skill that will ever be on that level. Maybe that argument could apply to typing, but I'm not sure that even the ability to use a keyboard will be that kind of universal required skill in my lifetime.
lm28469 8y ago
I'd say it's the opposite, just like everyone has a car but barely anyone could do the most basic maintenance on it. This is arguably getting worse in every sector because of increasing complexity. (trade off for increasing convenience, as usual) Familiarity is not knowledge. I'd even say that technology sets us back because know we're all thinking we're much smarter than we are, I can google any issue I have and find an answer with minor brain usage. I don't need to know how basic orientation skills because I have google maps, etc ... It's a nice tool for sure, but the only "second nature" we're getting is the "second nature" of googling anything that take us more than 5 seconds of brain time. I lived without a phone for a few weeks (unwillingly) and I was surprised about how little of my daily life I could still do without frictions. The only lingua franca I see coming is emojis and memes, not programming languages. That's a nice example of tech worker echo chamber / over optimism / bubble though.
- rekshaw 8y ago
  Valid counterpoint. However, we could still be witnessing metaphorical "acne" resulting from instant communication. With no more time-delays or costs associated with communication, the threshold for what makes something worth communicating drops. What I'm speaking of is not 20 years from now, but 500. When we've moved past the banal, when people have assimilated instant communication but have also learned the preciousness of time and the negative long term effects of information overload. In a way, a bit like how we quickly moved past custom ringtones, but on a much grander scale. Programming is relatively novel nowawadays. It won't be in 500 years, it will just be like a hammer.
  - lm28469 8y ago
    Only the future will tell. Maybe it's me being pessimistic but so far tech (for the masses) is mostly used for: - making money through ads. - enabling people to live their shallow ego trips on fb / ig / whatever is used these days. (influencers, &c.) - drown people in endless entertainment to make their work/sleep cycle tolerable. None of this is helping society is a whole, but, sure we have nice electric cars 90% of the population can't afford and we'll soon send rocket to Mars. Do we need $2.6k foldable phone ? pizza delivery drones ? same day delivery ? slaves delivering food through apps like deliveroo ? Is that the best we can do with tech today ? Or is it just enabling our mindless consume / produce cycle with no end goal ? For every meaningful tech advance we have 10 startups raising millions to press a fruit bag [0] or be a rental agency [1]. It's like a sad and lame black mirror episode. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/01/juicero-silicon-valley-shutting-down https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/01/juicero-s... [1] https://www.wework.com https://www.wework.com
nickjj 8y ago
Lots of people are already really good programmers, they just don't know it. I know a few people who are really good plumbers, electricians and general contractors. Basically, they can see a problem and have the skills to break it down and then create a solution. None of them can type very well and barely know how to use the internet but I bet if they focused on learning the basics of computers they would end up being top notch programmers.
- lm28469 8y ago
  Or maybe you'd be a top notch electrician. Some people enjoy their craft (or don't want to sit at a desk all day), in the past few decades programming became really hyped but it's not some kind of goal everyone should try to attain. At some point we'll have to stop with that "technology can and will solve everything" mentality.
  - nickjj 8y ago
    I was just trying to say that there's a lot of general skill set overlap between being a programmer and something like a plumber or electrician. It's mostly breaking down problems, having a general curiosity on how things work and being able to read documentation. The only real difference between an electrician and a programmer is the context of how they apply those skills.
    - lm28469 8y ago
      But doesn't that apply to basically anything in life ? Everything is about will + tools + problem solving skills. From building a house to fixing a bicycle, building a shelf, fixing an old SLR, &c. I'd even argue that building/fixing material things is more rewarding than programming in general. The only difference is that current society chose to reward average developers much more than average workers in other industries (good pay, flexible working hours, free snack, job security, &c.). But to me the average developer is not more important than the average trashman or electrician, quite the opposite. A lot of tech workers are not much more than assembly line workers from back in days, spitting out barely maintainable code found on stack overflow, using tools they understand only on a superficial level (framework, DBs, &c.). Again, familiarity is not knowledge. We have to stop romanticising our profession as if it was some kind of holy grail, for most people it's just a (good) way to bring money home. Most developers are not revolutionising anything, most are not working on anything meaningful, most are easily replaceable, most don't care that much about what they do, just like everywhere else.
agentultra 8y ago
> And yes, it will be javascript. It may trend that way for programmers. There's always the time-trusted argument to use a technology that "everyone else knows because maintainability," and often that's going to mean javascript (or whatever language the squeaky wheel likes the best). But for the general population? I doubt it. We were told, 30 years ago, that everyone needed to learn how to program computers to compete in the economy of the future. That future is here and the majority of people I know aren't interested in learning how to program and don't need to.
flavio81 8y ago
>And yes, it will be javascript. In 10 years, Javascript will be as old and forgotten as Perl or (classic) ASP.

sokoloff 8y ago

The population who currently struggles with its/it's and they're/their/there, basic (con)sequential logic, and even universal remotes is unlikely to become productive in anything like our current text-based languages. For this flocking to happen, it's going to look more like a spreadsheet, block language (Scratch-esque), or Hypercard type system than a text language. Even there, I don't expect it to become a mainstream activity.

netsharc 8y ago

I've read the assertion that the spreadsheet is the first "programming environment" for the general population, and I like the idea. Input some numbers into 2 or more cells and the most basic function would be that the output is the sum of these numbers, displayed in another cell. https://nodered.org/ https://nodered.org/ offers a drag and drop environment, although indeed the general public would not understand the nodes ("TCP, mqtt, websocket?"), if they could make it more general it would be "easy" to make branches, which is what an if-else-statement is.

intertextuality 8y ago

I think you have a biased outlook, to be honest. For every handful of programmers I know, I know at least 100 others who maybe can barely use their computer besides basic apps. Programming is still not intuitive (nor enjoyable) for the vast majority of people, and I believe it will stay that way.

petercooper 8y ago
Agreed, I think programming as a skill will follow a similar arc to automotive engineering. Early on it was highly specialized, but from the 50s-80s it was generally expected that you knew how to maintain your car and would do the basic jobs yourself (oil, tires, maybe even filters). But now? A lot of people now would even call out AAA to change a wheel.
- pbhjpbhj 8y ago
  Cheap tyre iron included with your vehicle vs nuts over-tightened with commercial pneumatic wrench ... it's not that unlikely that the tyre-iron breaks. If it doesn't you may be unable to loosen the nuts. It's pretty reasonable to call out a mechanic. If you're doing anything complicated you have to wrangle the vehicle computer. I expect you're right, computers will get more complex, more proprietary, less open, less likely to use open standards, companies will do more to prevent users adapting or repairing them.
FreeFull 8y ago
I think the vast majority of people isn't even aware that programming is a thing. Back when computers used to present people with a BASIC prompt, people had a better chance of finding out about it and getting into it.
- intertextuality 8y ago
  These days more people know about it in general because of the high salaries programmers earn. So in time I can see it becoming somewhat similar to wanting to be an engineer, doctor, or lawyer. Except those fields may more accessible even in the future.
bluGill 8y ago
I don't want it to change by much. Yes we need more programmers, but we also need more doctors. It is not practical to become a great doctor and a great programmer. Those are but two of that millions of different jobs that are required for modern society to function.

xkcd-sucks 8y ago

Yeah but (in "modern first world countries") how many people can and do solder a wire or turn a wrench or effectively give directions?

base698 8y ago

We thought this 20 years ago sure, but I think we have enough evidence at this point that people are going to drool on their iPad playing Candy Crush instead of hacking emacs. I believe Marvin Minskey was quoted in "The Dream Machine": > Computers may be a bicycle for the mind, but most peoples mental output is zero. 0 * x is still zero!

gtycomb 8y ago

Basic plumbing may be picked up by almost anyone and by and large we call a professional plumber to fix the leak.

thrownaway954 8y ago

You do realize that the author was a programmer before becoming a baker.

rekshaw 8y ago
Yes, hence my point! I believe we will see more and more of this. Today programming is seen as a skilled art that only the few can comprehend, much like writing was back in ancient times. And so, only a programmer can effectively apply custom technology to non-technical tasks like baking. In the future, programming will be more accessible, and potentially be so common and part of the upbringing of children that anyone will be able to program simple things they need. I also see the counter-argument that this is utopian and people will just get more and more stupid. But one can only hope it is not the case! :)
- zrobotics 8y ago
  Why must programming be so universal? Look at the number of people who would balk at a simple task like replacing a plumbing fixture or a light fixture. This isn't implying that these people are 'stupid', it just isn't a skill that they have decided is worthwhile to learn. Changing the oil in your car isn't hard to learn, and certainly isn't filtering out the stupid, but there are just a lot of people who simply don't feel it is worth learning how to do. And programming isn't any different--it simply isn't a universal enough skill. Sure, it is essentially required to know basic arithmetic and literacy to function in a modern society, but I don't think that programming is a skill that will ever be on that level. Maybe that argument could apply to typing, but I'm not sure that even the ability to use a keyboard will be that kind of universal required skill in my lifetime.

lm28469 8y ago

I'd say it's the opposite, just like everyone has a car but barely anyone could do the most basic maintenance on it. This is arguably getting worse in every sector because of increasing complexity. (trade off for increasing convenience, as usual) Familiarity is not knowledge. I'd even say that technology sets us back because know we're all thinking we're much smarter than we are, I can google any issue I have and find an answer with minor brain usage. I don't need to know how basic orientation skills because I have google maps, etc ... It's a nice tool for sure, but the only "second nature" we're getting is the "second nature" of googling anything that take us more than 5 seconds of brain time. I lived without a phone for a few weeks (unwillingly) and I was surprised about how little of my daily life I could still do without frictions. The only lingua franca I see coming is emojis and memes, not programming languages. That's a nice example of tech worker echo chamber / over optimism / bubble though.

rekshaw 8y ago
Valid counterpoint. However, we could still be witnessing metaphorical "acne" resulting from instant communication. With no more time-delays or costs associated with communication, the threshold for what makes something worth communicating drops. What I'm speaking of is not 20 years from now, but 500. When we've moved past the banal, when people have assimilated instant communication but have also learned the preciousness of time and the negative long term effects of information overload. In a way, a bit like how we quickly moved past custom ringtones, but on a much grander scale. Programming is relatively novel nowawadays. It won't be in 500 years, it will just be like a hammer.
- lm28469 8y ago
  Only the future will tell. Maybe it's me being pessimistic but so far tech (for the masses) is mostly used for: - making money through ads. - enabling people to live their shallow ego trips on fb / ig / whatever is used these days. (influencers, &c.) - drown people in endless entertainment to make their work/sleep cycle tolerable. None of this is helping society is a whole, but, sure we have nice electric cars 90% of the population can't afford and we'll soon send rocket to Mars. Do we need $2.6k foldable phone ? pizza delivery drones ? same day delivery ? slaves delivering food through apps like deliveroo ? Is that the best we can do with tech today ? Or is it just enabling our mindless consume / produce cycle with no end goal ? For every meaningful tech advance we have 10 startups raising millions to press a fruit bag [0] or be a rental agency [1]. It's like a sad and lame black mirror episode. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/01/juicero-silicon-valley-shutting-down https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/01/juicero-s... [1] https://www.wework.com https://www.wework.com

nickjj 8y ago

Lots of people are already really good programmers, they just don't know it. I know a few people who are really good plumbers, electricians and general contractors. Basically, they can see a problem and have the skills to break it down and then create a solution. None of them can type very well and barely know how to use the internet but I bet if they focused on learning the basics of computers they would end up being top notch programmers.

lm28469 8y ago
Or maybe you'd be a top notch electrician. Some people enjoy their craft (or don't want to sit at a desk all day), in the past few decades programming became really hyped but it's not some kind of goal everyone should try to attain. At some point we'll have to stop with that "technology can and will solve everything" mentality.
- nickjj 8y ago
  I was just trying to say that there's a lot of general skill set overlap between being a programmer and something like a plumber or electrician. It's mostly breaking down problems, having a general curiosity on how things work and being able to read documentation. The only real difference between an electrician and a programmer is the context of how they apply those skills.
  - lm28469 8y ago
    But doesn't that apply to basically anything in life ? Everything is about will + tools + problem solving skills. From building a house to fixing a bicycle, building a shelf, fixing an old SLR, &c. I'd even argue that building/fixing material things is more rewarding than programming in general. The only difference is that current society chose to reward average developers much more than average workers in other industries (good pay, flexible working hours, free snack, job security, &c.). But to me the average developer is not more important than the average trashman or electrician, quite the opposite. A lot of tech workers are not much more than assembly line workers from back in days, spitting out barely maintainable code found on stack overflow, using tools they understand only on a superficial level (framework, DBs, &c.). Again, familiarity is not knowledge. We have to stop romanticising our profession as if it was some kind of holy grail, for most people it's just a (good) way to bring money home. Most developers are not revolutionising anything, most are not working on anything meaningful, most are easily replaceable, most don't care that much about what they do, just like everywhere else.

agentultra 8y ago

> And yes, it will be javascript. It may trend that way for programmers. There's always the time-trusted argument to use a technology that "everyone else knows because maintainability," and often that's going to mean javascript (or whatever language the squeaky wheel likes the best). But for the general population? I doubt it. We were told, 30 years ago, that everyone needed to learn how to program computers to compete in the economy of the future. That future is here and the majority of people I know aren't interested in learning how to program and don't need to.

flavio81 8y ago

>And yes, it will be javascript. In 10 years, Javascript will be as old and forgotten as Perl or (classic) ASP.