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Interesting I have friends and family who work at sand mines that supply the sand for fracking. The companies they work for are still expanding and they have mo

Interesting I have friends and family who work at sand mines that supply the sand for fracking. The companies they work for are still expanding and they have more overtime available than they can take. I'm not sure on the long term future of fracking but in the short 5-10 year span it doesn't appear to be going away based on how much infrastructure these companies are adding right now and how much land they're buying.

ipsum2 8y ago
Prediction: this piece is just fearmongering, in 1-2 years we will see fracking increase, not decrease.
- Gibbon1 8y ago
  My prediction is the fracking industry will go bankrupt like the nuclear and coal industries.
  - mirimir 8y ago
    One can hope.
    - Agathos 8y ago
      A setback for fracking would be the best thing that could possibly happen to coal.
      - Gibbon1 8y ago
        Coal is dead man walking because wind and solar beat them both on price. Coal went bankrupt and will go bankrupt again.
        Agathos 8y ago
        Fracked natural gas killed coal years before solar and wind could get there. Solar and wind may yet kill gas, which would be nice.
        Gibbon1 8y ago
        Fracking though was heavily subsidized by Wall Street using other peoples money. It never was, nor will be profitable and it's a dead end technology.
- adventured 8y ago
  It's something akin to talking about the problems independent burger stands are having while McDonald's is taking over. US oil output is projected to rise to 16-18 million barrels per day over the next decade approximately, from 12.x million expected in 2019. At 16m barrels per day, the US will be producing 50% more oil than Saudi Arabia. To do that WTI oil merely needs to remain above roughly $50. At $70+ sustained oil, US production will add a million barrels per day per year. On the flip side, sustained $30-$35 oil would be a catastrophe for OPEC and Russia. They'll cut and or restrain production expansion as necessary to keep oil over a minimum price. Saudi needs $65-$70+ oil to avoid epic budget shortfalls going forward. Russia needs it for spending to placate domestic popularity re Putin. They don't like giving up demand growth to the US, however for now they're not really net suffering a loss of output so much as ceding global growth to US shale. They'll keep doing that for quite a while yet, while hoping US output plateaus in the coming years.
  - Fjolsvith 8y ago
    So the higher the oil price, the greater the US market share growth. What a nightmare for OPEC and Russia.
- onlyrealcuzzo 8y ago
  Not if interests rates go up. I'd recommend this book by Bethany McLean: https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0999745441/ref=dbs_a_w_dp_0999745441 https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0999745441/ref=dbs_a_w_dp_099... The reason investment has died off even with the price of oil rising, I'm guessing (based on the book) is because of the slight increase in interest rates.
  - Fjolsvith 8y ago
    I suspect that fracking companies are not using debt to finance expansion - they are flush with cash atm.
roenxi 8y ago
Extraction industries do turn on a dime between boom and bust though; there isn't a lot of warning things are going south and the symptoms can be a bit weird. Then everyone who can be sacked is out of a job. Indeed, for weird symptoms, one option in the face of financial problems is to scale up production to reduce unit costs and try and widen the margin. Not that your friend and family are wrong, I've just worked in extraction companies that were expanding and short on labor, then 12 months later were reviewing their options for bankruptcy. That isn't a great metric for corporate health.

ipsum2 8y ago

Prediction: this piece is just fearmongering, in 1-2 years we will see fracking increase, not decrease.

Gibbon1 8y ago
My prediction is the fracking industry will go bankrupt like the nuclear and coal industries.
- mirimir 8y ago
  One can hope.
  - Agathos 8y ago
    A setback for fracking would be the best thing that could possibly happen to coal.
    - Gibbon1 8y ago
      Coal is dead man walking because wind and solar beat them both on price. Coal went bankrupt and will go bankrupt again.
      - Agathos 8y ago
        Fracked natural gas killed coal years before solar and wind could get there. Solar and wind may yet kill gas, which would be nice.
        Gibbon1 8y ago
        Fracking though was heavily subsidized by Wall Street using other peoples money. It never was, nor will be profitable and it's a dead end technology.
adventured 8y ago
It's something akin to talking about the problems independent burger stands are having while McDonald's is taking over. US oil output is projected to rise to 16-18 million barrels per day over the next decade approximately, from 12.x million expected in 2019. At 16m barrels per day, the US will be producing 50% more oil than Saudi Arabia. To do that WTI oil merely needs to remain above roughly $50. At $70+ sustained oil, US production will add a million barrels per day per year. On the flip side, sustained $30-$35 oil would be a catastrophe for OPEC and Russia. They'll cut and or restrain production expansion as necessary to keep oil over a minimum price. Saudi needs $65-$70+ oil to avoid epic budget shortfalls going forward. Russia needs it for spending to placate domestic popularity re Putin. They don't like giving up demand growth to the US, however for now they're not really net suffering a loss of output so much as ceding global growth to US shale. They'll keep doing that for quite a while yet, while hoping US output plateaus in the coming years.
- Fjolsvith 8y ago
  So the higher the oil price, the greater the US market share growth. What a nightmare for OPEC and Russia.
onlyrealcuzzo 8y ago
Not if interests rates go up. I'd recommend this book by Bethany McLean: https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0999745441/ref=dbs_a_w_dp_0999745441 https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0999745441/ref=dbs_a_w_dp_099... The reason investment has died off even with the price of oil rising, I'm guessing (based on the book) is because of the slight increase in interest rates.
- Fjolsvith 8y ago
  I suspect that fracking companies are not using debt to finance expansion - they are flush with cash atm.

roenxi 8y ago

Extraction industries do turn on a dime between boom and bust though; there isn't a lot of warning things are going south and the symptoms can be a bit weird. Then everyone who can be sacked is out of a job. Indeed, for weird symptoms, one option in the face of financial problems is to scale up production to reduce unit costs and try and widen the margin. Not that your friend and family are wrong, I've just worked in extraction companies that were expanding and short on labor, then 12 months later were reviewing their options for bankruptcy. That isn't a great metric for corporate health.