4 ms·

I'm literarly hanging on the edge of the seat in this self inflicted catastrophe that is Brexit. I view it as an experiment in what happens when common sense f

I'm literarly hanging on the edge of the seat in this self inflicted catastrophe that is Brexit. I view it as an experiment in what happens when common sense fails to win in an election. I'm a EU citizen and Brexit will have negative impact, but I really want them to see this through, preferably in a no deal fashion. I want to see what happens. Was it realy project Fear, or - what I belive - this will spell total shit for UK for comming years and decades.

TomK32 8y ago
Two elections, May gambled on the needless General Election and then had to go to bed with the radicals from the DUP. As interesting as the "lesson" of a no-deal would be (and it would be shit because France or Ireland can't just keep the border wide open as it is without getting sued by the EU, the majority of the UK voters are coming to realize that it is a stupid idea and has to be prevented. What has to change is this toxic english press that wrote so many lies about the EU for decades.
DyslexicAtheist 8y ago
I think a no-deal is very likely at this point. It will be interesting to see how much everything was hyped by media and what are the real lessons for other countries ... Could it really be that a complex set of contracts is so poorly implemented that the exit conditions will push a state over the brink ?? If yes then I wonder how nobody thought about risk and contingency - after all contracts can always be reviewed, re-negotiated and revised. Preferably every couple of years. If EU membership is a one way road that can only be untangled with economic hardship (or even civil war) then other countries should start thinking for their own contingency. Even they don't intend to leave it's just good practice ... Similar like Russia planning to shut off their connection to the rest of the Internet. If you don't plan for such scenarios and practice resilience and recovery it'll eventually end in tears (whatever system/s you build).
- pjc50 8y ago
  > the exit conditions will push a state over the brink ? It doesn't have to be a disaster; the separation of Czechoslovakia was comparatively easier! It is a disaster of choice due to lack of coherent planning. The government position makes no sense - why are we trying to leave the customs union too? The EU membership brought benefits. It should not be surprising that leaving it is disadvantageous. Russia leaving the Internet would cost them a lot more if they had a tech industry and weren't a non free petrostate.
Nursie 8y ago
> I view it as an experiment in what happens when common sense fails to win in an election. I see it as that combined with a poor electoral system. Common sense wasn't on offer from either major party at the last General Election, the main party offering it is now rather minor and considered tainted through the last coalition, and others (Green etc) are tiny. The small parties are held in check by our antiquated First Past The Post voting system which disenfranchises all votes but the winner in a given area. So people are faced with the old dilemma - I'd like to vote for C or D really, but if I don't vote for A, B is likely to get in, and I hate B. I really hate B! > Was it realy project Fear There was definitely an element of fearmongering, and there has been ridiculous hyperbole on both sides of the argument. I believe outcomes will be a net negative, but also that you can't really take anyone's forecast seriously.
jmnicolas 8y ago
It will be "total shit" because the EU wants to punish the UK so the other European countries stay in line.
- vbuwivbiu 8y ago
  "the EU" _is_ "other European countries"
- Arnt 8y ago
  Even assuming that anyone in the EU wants that, it doesn't seem necessary. The UK government has taken care of that. Look at https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47213842 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47213842 for example.
- NeedMoreTea 8y ago
  Hardly punishing. We can no longer use the pool because we resigned gym membership. That's not exactly innovative. The same deal for paying members and non members would be a very unusual association. It will be total shit because those who most vocally backed Brexit are amongst the first relocating themselves and their businesses. Like Britain's richest Jim Ratcliffe, Dyson etc.
  - repolfx 8y ago
    "Using the pool" is not a good analogy here. The EU has been trying to force airlines to become majority EU owned. That's not a "pool" that's being "used". It's a simple economic attack in retaliation for leaving. The EU also tried to force euro clearing out of London again, although it appears they just gave up on that and ESMA decided the EU would allow it to continue in the UK. Which is odd because losing the financial passport was supposed to spell certain doom for the Euro clearing market, but apparently it wasn't that easy for the EU to forcibly relocate all that business. Being able to sell services to people in Europe is not a pool - it's the absence of artificial blockades. The EU is doing or threatening to do lots of things that aren't comparable to a sports club. In fact it would appear that most of the "benefits" of EU membership appear to merely be the absence of various forms of economic attack. There's no technical reason why the EU has to implement these policies after all. It's just that if they didn't impose artificial penalties on non-members, membership would be even less attractive than it already is.
Pharmakon 8y ago
I think at this point the exodus will continue regardless of Brexit outcomes. The underlying social divisions and political mess aren’t going away, and the unpredictable reality of British politics has been thoroughly exposed. The ERG isn’t going away, the people who voted for Brexit aren’t going away (at least not quickly). Moving a business now will hurt, but less then potentially a decade or more back and forth maneuvering depending on who is in power. I truly believe this spells the beginning of the end of us as a center for business and finance.

TomK32 8y ago

Two elections, May gambled on the needless General Election and then had to go to bed with the radicals from the DUP. As interesting as the "lesson" of a no-deal would be (and it would be shit because France or Ireland can't just keep the border wide open as it is without getting sued by the EU, the majority of the UK voters are coming to realize that it is a stupid idea and has to be prevented. What has to change is this toxic english press that wrote so many lies about the EU for decades.

DyslexicAtheist 8y ago

I think a no-deal is very likely at this point. It will be interesting to see how much everything was hyped by media and what are the real lessons for other countries ... Could it really be that a complex set of contracts is so poorly implemented that the exit conditions will push a state over the brink ?? If yes then I wonder how nobody thought about risk and contingency - after all contracts can always be reviewed, re-negotiated and revised. Preferably every couple of years. If EU membership is a one way road that can only be untangled with economic hardship (or even civil war) then other countries should start thinking for their own contingency. Even they don't intend to leave it's just good practice ... Similar like Russia planning to shut off their connection to the rest of the Internet. If you don't plan for such scenarios and practice resilience and recovery it'll eventually end in tears (whatever system/s you build).

pjc50 8y ago
> the exit conditions will push a state over the brink ? It doesn't have to be a disaster; the separation of Czechoslovakia was comparatively easier! It is a disaster of choice due to lack of coherent planning. The government position makes no sense - why are we trying to leave the customs union too? The EU membership brought benefits. It should not be surprising that leaving it is disadvantageous. Russia leaving the Internet would cost them a lot more if they had a tech industry and weren't a non free petrostate.

Nursie 8y ago

> I view it as an experiment in what happens when common sense fails to win in an election. I see it as that combined with a poor electoral system. Common sense wasn't on offer from either major party at the last General Election, the main party offering it is now rather minor and considered tainted through the last coalition, and others (Green etc) are tiny. The small parties are held in check by our antiquated First Past The Post voting system which disenfranchises all votes but the winner in a given area. So people are faced with the old dilemma - I'd like to vote for C or D really, but if I don't vote for A, B is likely to get in, and I hate B. I really hate B! > Was it realy project Fear There was definitely an element of fearmongering, and there has been ridiculous hyperbole on both sides of the argument. I believe outcomes will be a net negative, but also that you can't really take anyone's forecast seriously.

jmnicolas 8y ago

It will be "total shit" because the EU wants to punish the UK so the other European countries stay in line.

vbuwivbiu 8y ago
"the EU" _is_ "other European countries"
Arnt 8y ago
Even assuming that anyone in the EU wants that, it doesn't seem necessary. The UK government has taken care of that. Look at https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47213842 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47213842 for example.
NeedMoreTea 8y ago
Hardly punishing. We can no longer use the pool because we resigned gym membership. That's not exactly innovative. The same deal for paying members and non members would be a very unusual association. It will be total shit because those who most vocally backed Brexit are amongst the first relocating themselves and their businesses. Like Britain's richest Jim Ratcliffe, Dyson etc.
- repolfx 8y ago
  "Using the pool" is not a good analogy here. The EU has been trying to force airlines to become majority EU owned. That's not a "pool" that's being "used". It's a simple economic attack in retaliation for leaving. The EU also tried to force euro clearing out of London again, although it appears they just gave up on that and ESMA decided the EU would allow it to continue in the UK. Which is odd because losing the financial passport was supposed to spell certain doom for the Euro clearing market, but apparently it wasn't that easy for the EU to forcibly relocate all that business. Being able to sell services to people in Europe is not a pool - it's the absence of artificial blockades. The EU is doing or threatening to do lots of things that aren't comparable to a sports club. In fact it would appear that most of the "benefits" of EU membership appear to merely be the absence of various forms of economic attack. There's no technical reason why the EU has to implement these policies after all. It's just that if they didn't impose artificial penalties on non-members, membership would be even less attractive than it already is.

Pharmakon 8y ago

I think at this point the exodus will continue regardless of Brexit outcomes. The underlying social divisions and political mess aren’t going away, and the unpredictable reality of British politics has been thoroughly exposed. The ERG isn’t going away, the people who voted for Brexit aren’t going away (at least not quickly). Moving a business now will hurt, but less then potentially a decade or more back and forth maneuvering depending on who is in power. I truly believe this spells the beginning of the end of us as a center for business and finance.