> in June the economy will celebrate a decade of recovery from the Great Recession Or the US already suffered a mild recession in 2015 and the recent higher gr

> in June the economy will celebrate a decade of recovery from the Great Recession Or the US already suffered a mild recession in 2015 and the recent higher growth is a bounce out of that. S&P 500 corporate profits contracted for four straight quarters from mid 2015 to mid 2016. Sales contracted for six straight quarters.[1] From July 2015, to November 2016, manufacturing employment contracted slightly (essentially was flat). Manufacturing employment has exploded higher since that month. The U6 unemployment rate was stuck between 10% and 9.6% between Sept 2015 and Oct 2016. The civilian labor force participation rate for 25-54 year olds (the single most important participation rate), was fairly stable from January 2013 until mid 2015 (after finding a new general floor post great recession), and then suddenly plunked to a new post great recession low of 80.5% in July 2015. It has been setting higher lows and higher highs ever since that drop. Consumer confidence, which had been rising persistently for years post great recession, stopped going up and then declined from early 2015 through early 2016. The S&P 500 index was near a peak in May 2015 at around 2134, then proceeded to go nowhere for a year to ~June 20 2016 when it was at 2032. During that weak year, it hit a low of around 1810 (~15% decline). The small business confidence index tanked from the first quarter of 2015, until early to mid 2016. The markit US manufacturing PMI began tanking from a high in mid 2014, until it bottomed out in the second quarter of 2016. The consumer price index had been rising for years post great recession, stopped rising in mid 2014, flattened out until Oct 2014, plunked lower until Jun 2015, then proceeded to go nowhere for another nine months. In net the consumer price index went no higher from Jun 2014 until Mar 2016. The price index then resumed climbing after Mar 2016. That ~20 month dead spot was the longest post great recession. In 3Q15 GDP growth dropped dramatically from the prior five quarters, to 1% (3Q14 was 4.9% by comparison). 4Q15 GDP growth dropped further to 0.4% (4Q14 was 1.9%). 1Q16 was 1.5% (1Q15 was 3.3%). If you've got 1% and 0.4% quarterly growth back to back, with a near zero fed rate, what you've got is a recession. There are countless more data points that indicate the US suffered a mild recession at some point over that year. [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/corporate-profits-set-to-shrink-for-fourth-consecutive-quarter-1468799278 https://www.wsj.com/articles/corporate-profits-set-to-shrink...