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> It probably won't. The reason is climate change. But as is the case with automation predictions and massive net job destruction, it hasn't happened yet. So

> It probably won't. The reason is climate change. But as is the case with automation predictions and massive net job destruction, it hasn't happened yet. So it's possible we're wrong about such predictions. We've been wrong in the past about environmental doom and job loss. Or maybe not this time, but we should keep that in mind and be a little bit skeptical about our current state of knowledge when predicting the future. It would be one thing if the trend was clearly toward things getting worse because of climate change. But it's not so far.

Aeolun 8y ago
Anecdotally, I’ve seen more climate related disasters in the past year than in the previous 5 before that.
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thiagoharry 8y ago
We also have been wrong in the past about the end of poverty and the gap between countries. These predictions usually focus just in technology improvements, ignoring politics, both internal as international.
sgift 8y ago
> It would be one thing if the trend was clearly toward things getting worse because of climate change. But it's not so far. Someone tell Fiji, I'm sure they will be happy to hear that: https://unfccc.int/news/how-fiji-is-impacted-by-climate-change https://unfccc.int/news/how-fiji-is-impacted-by-climate-chan... https://www.salon.com/2012/09/19/first_village_relocated_due_to_climate_change/ https://www.salon.com/2012/09/19/first_village_relocated_due...
onion2k 8y ago
So it's possible we're wrong about such predictions. Not all predictions are equal. We're a lot better at modelling things now than we ever have been in the past. That's not to say we're definitely right this time, but the probability that we actually are right is much higher than at any point in history.
pas 8y ago
Climate change is not necessarily a doomsday for humanity. Just as great agriculture projects required a civilizational innovation, and just as Netherlands' constant work with the water led to a strong tradition of cooperation and responsibility sharing, climate change mitigation might motivate similar social and institutional changes elsewhere. Or not. After all populism and demagoguery is extremely powerful (see religions).
empath75 8y ago
It has happened. The world has warmed by a degree. Insects are dying off. Coral reefs are dying off. Phytoplankton is at risk of dying off, the antarctic ice sheets are collapsing, the arctic thaws out completely almost in the summer time, permafrost is thawing I’m Siberia and Canada what more do you want?

Aeolun 8y ago

Anecdotally, I’ve seen more climate related disasters in the past year than in the previous 5 before that.

deleted 8y ago
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thiagoharry 8y ago

We also have been wrong in the past about the end of poverty and the gap between countries. These predictions usually focus just in technology improvements, ignoring politics, both internal as international.

sgift 8y ago

> It would be one thing if the trend was clearly toward things getting worse because of climate change. But it's not so far. Someone tell Fiji, I'm sure they will be happy to hear that: https://unfccc.int/news/how-fiji-is-impacted-by-climate-change https://unfccc.int/news/how-fiji-is-impacted-by-climate-chan... https://www.salon.com/2012/09/19/first_village_relocated_due_to_climate_change/ https://www.salon.com/2012/09/19/first_village_relocated_due...

onion2k 8y ago

So it's possible we're wrong about such predictions. Not all predictions are equal. We're a lot better at modelling things now than we ever have been in the past. That's not to say we're definitely right this time, but the probability that we actually are right is much higher than at any point in history.

pas 8y ago

Climate change is not necessarily a doomsday for humanity. Just as great agriculture projects required a civilizational innovation, and just as Netherlands' constant work with the water led to a strong tradition of cooperation and responsibility sharing, climate change mitigation might motivate similar social and institutional changes elsewhere. Or not. After all populism and demagoguery is extremely powerful (see religions).

empath75 8y ago

It has happened. The world has warmed by a degree. Insects are dying off. Coral reefs are dying off. Phytoplankton is at risk of dying off, the antarctic ice sheets are collapsing, the arctic thaws out completely almost in the summer time, permafrost is thawing I’m Siberia and Canada what more do you want?