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Pre: - will Porat be cutting "other bets", rumors is that other bets is in line for a big budget cuts - Options implied vol is showing enough movement baked i
by chollida1 8y ago
Pre:
- will Porat be cutting "other bets", rumors is that other bets is in line for a big budget cuts
- Options implied vol is showing enough movement baked in that GOOG could become largest company by Market Cap if
the street likes their numbers, and GOOG doesn't disappoint often
- Like Facebook the public and wallstreet have weighed in and they love money more than privacy.
- analysts are not in anyway mixed about Google's prospects
- 41 buy recommendations vs 2 hold and 0 sell
Add Revenue:
- 4Q paid clicks on Google's own sites is up 66%, seems high enough that it's not organic
but more than likely increased advertising space on sites, forced youtube videos, etc
- Cost per click on Google's own sites is down 29%
Numbers:
- 4Q profit of $8.2B est $8.7B
- 4Q EPS $12.77
- 4Q expenses $31.2B up from $24.7B yoy.
- 6.85B on capex vs $3.8B yoy
- 4Q operating margin 21% down from 24% yoy.
- 4Q other bets lost $1.33 billion, don't hear much about these bets anymore but that is an outsized loss in this category.
-Again they mention Verily and Waymo in passing but no details worth mentioning.
- 4Q Add Revenue $32B
- 4Q own site revenues $27B
Misc:
- shares are down a bit, lots of volume, nothing out of ordinary, guessing its mostly covering and profit taking.
- Too bad for almost all factor models that really on trade on tech Momentum
- The company added nearly 20,000 employees over the year. * WOW, double check this, that's a large head count addition.
- can't find any Cloud break outs, I guess MSFT and AMZN are really beating them, given how much of a growth engine it is for the 2 leaders
I can't see why GOOG would hid it if they were able to compete.
- No youtube breakout of revenues, Again not a bullish sign for that division, stil nothing on youtube on the call.
- EDIT on the earnings call they did talk briefly about Youtube, no real new numbers though, just their assurance that youtube is crushing it
- Porat is doing gymnastics to talk about youtube but not actually say anything about youtube. Are youtbue numbers really that bad????
- Google was the top lobby spender of 2018, not in tech but for all companies. Silicon Valley is now arguably bigger force than Wall Street on US politics.
- margins are down and spending is up, not sure if its GOOG that wants to spend to grow or its competitors that are forcing it to compete.
Either way, this competition is great for tech salaries
- Employees totaled 98,771 in the quarter vs 80,110 a year ago, WOW
- theDoug 8y agoEmployee counts via Form 10-K releases (as of EoY each year): 2013: 47,756 (too lazy to look earlier) 2014: 53,600 (+12.2% YoY) 2015: 61,814 (+15.3% YoY) 2016: 72,053 (+16.5% YoY) 2017: 80,110 (+11.1% YoY) 2018: 98,771 (+23.2% YoY) Source: https://abc.xyz/investor/ https://abc.xyz/investor/ This does not include contractor, temp, and vendors
- adtac 8y agoI imagine most of the engineering addition is in Google Cloud? Given the fierce competition at the top with AWS and Azure. Just a guess though.
- koolba 8y agoAny idea of the breakdown of engineers vs sales?
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- vanadium 8y agoAsking the real questions here, I'm seriously interested in knowing the staff breakdown by role.
- theDoug 8y agoThe opening statements of the quarterly public analyst calls give a lot of good direction. I don't think anyone would be foolish enough to blab an actual breakdown for this, Alphabet- or Cloud-wide. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31_KHdse_0Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31_KHdse_0Y
- stingraycharles 8y agoWhat happened with the increased headcount? Which areas is this in? It would be great news if this were on sales / support (in cloud?) since they’re severely underrepresented in these areas and it seems like low hanging fruit to invest here. Would this increase in headcount be an explanation for increased expenses? If not, what would explain the dramatic increase in expenses?
- adventured 8y ago> Silicon Valley is now arguably bigger force than Wall Street on US politics. There's no argument there. The banks and military industrial complex have drastically more influence and power than Silicon Valley, despite SV closing that gap over time. All politicians, with few exceptions, bow to the feet of the military industrial complex. They all get in line. That's slightly less true for Wall Street, however only slightly. Every aspect of the US Government is dependent on the Federal Reserve and US banking system, without exception. Silicon Valley companies come and go over the decades, they rise and fall. JP Morgan predates the Fed and has been critical to the US Government for over a century. Google is a Walmart or the former GM, as far as the politicians in DC are concerned. Powerful, rich, influential, and still not a first tier power in DC. It never can be. Military, weapons, currency, financing. That's the source of real power, all of DC knows it. Everything else is just a play thing of the moment, inevitably replaced by a new shiny play thing in the next decade or two. Long after Google is gone, banking and military will still be around.
- rock_hard 8y agoSo you are saying that the company who holds all of the worlds information and makes it publicly available is a fad? That’s bold!
- chimpburger 8y agoThey don't hold the world's information. They are an advertising company with a search engine for public websites, which are all hosted outside of Google.
- netheril96 8y agoIn the age of information overload, the host of information is less important than the portal to information.
- hyperbovine 8y agoNo, merely that our need to blow each other up has ultimate longevity.
- ac29 8y ago>can't find any Cloud break outs, I guess MSFT and AMZN are really beating them, given how much of a growth engine it is for the 2 leaders I can't see why GOOG would hid it if they were able to compete. "Other revenue" is up 30% YoY. I'd imagine this is mostly Google Cloud (it also includes Pixel and other hardware). In another article I read, Google said "Last year we more than doubled both the number of Google Cloud Platform deals over 1 million as well as the number of multiyear contracts signed" [0] [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/04/alphabet-earnings-q4-2018.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/04/alphabet-earnings-q4-2018.ht...
- panarky 8y agoMicrosoft doesn't break out Azure in their public financial reports.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- riku_iki 8y ago> The company added nearly 20,000 employees over the year. Some of them probably are from HTC acquisition. > - can't find any Cloud break outs, They never published cloud break outs, but they posted 6.5B revenue of non ads business, which is essentially cloud + office + pixel sales.
- throwaway5752 8y agoAmazing they went from nothing to 100K employees and $100B+ in revenue in 20 years.
- curiousDog 8y agoAmazon went from nothing to 500k employees and $200B+ in only 25yrs. Even more impressive
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- throwaway5752 8y agoI'm slightly more impressed by GOOG in light of the net margin and average employee salary difference.
- hyperbovine 8y agoAmazon has an easier time hiring though. Bezos would hire trained chimpanzees if he could.
- dragonwriter 8y ago> Google was the top lobby spender of 2018, not in tech but for all companies. Silicon Valley is now arguably bigger force than Wall Street on US politics. Lobbying is not where power is in US politics. Spending on elections is.
- aetherson 8y agoI'm not sure that spending on elections is where the power is either, but certainly any claim that lobbying gives you durable political power is at best undersourced.
- acchow 8y ago> The company added nearly 20,000 employees over the year They hired more than half-a-Facebook worth. Where are they finding these people? Seems most other companies are struggling to fill their headcount
- jpm_sd 8y ago> Google chief financial officer Ruth Porat pointed to sizable jumps in compensation for Other Bets employees and executives, with the total stock-based compensation now amounting to nearly $500 million for this past quarter. https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/4/18211177/alphabet-google-earnings-q4-2018-moonshot-other-bets-spending https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/4/18211177/alphabet-google-e... !!???
- QuercusMax 8y agoI'll just leave this here. This may be part of the puzzle: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/alphabets-verily-gets-1-billion-in-investment-as-ruth-porat-joins-its-board-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/alphabets-verily-gets-1-bill...
- techfoolery 8y agoJust because Google Cloud doesn't break out its revenue, doesn't mean its a sign of trouble. It makes complete sense, they're obviously in the third position. Why put additional shareholder pressure that can put an enterprise in a position where they're incentivized towards short-term gains vs. the long play that this is..