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humans do research to learn. learning is when our belief system changes in the face of evidence. how should we hypothetically (in a thought experiment) measur
by DoctorOetker 8y ago
humans do research to learn.
learning is when our belief system changes in the face of evidence.
how should we hypothetically (in a thought experiment) measure this education of humanity?
strawman proposal: lets measure learning by voting on predictions, and then after measurement we can observe the discrepancy between collective prediction and actual measurement results.
problem with the straw man proposal: most of humanity will make wrong predictions, because most of humanity has not been trained in most disciplines.
so we want the "prediction of humanity" to somehow give most weight to the experts. obviously it will be contentious to define "expertness". Instead of trying to define "expertness" we could weigh the human predictions by the individual's success rate at previous predictions. Now we get a modified prediction distribution of humanity.
Nothing currently forces falsified predictions to go away, look at chapter 28 of Feynman lectures vol 2 on ElectroMagnetic mass. There's known inconsistencies in our theories, virtually no one highlights these, because everyone is trying to underscore their understanding and never lack of understanding of the universe...