11 ms·

Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter

106 points by 11thEarlOfMar 8y ago

chollida1 8y ago
Pre: - Will they give guidance on Model 3, Geographic breakdown(most other peers do)? - how many sales are high end cars vs low end? - TSLA down 11% on year vs market up 5ish - convertable debt issue, we're now in the 20 day average window, option implied vols show market doesn't think they'll make it - Elon commented that they could pay bond w cash and didn't seem concerned, cash balance is up, though so are short term liabilities Car Notes: - current lowest price car sold is Model 3 $44,000 - reported to sustain 7,000 per week, a pretty big miss from the 10,000 that elon claimed they'd be at by mid 2018 but expected - Est. 2019 delivered 360,000 to 400,000 - Est. Q1 delivers expected to be down vs 2018 - Est. Q1 deliveries expected to be down in North America - still no funding secured for China plant Solar: - why even track anymore, installations fell, yawn Numbers: - cash balance is 3.7B - cash flow positive again!!, beat last quarter, though capital spending fell alot( down to $300ish million) - 4Q Adj EPS $1.93, Est. $2.14 (Big misses, what happend here?) - layoffs could cut $400M annually from budget - Customer Deposits $792.6M vs $908.5M in 3Q - Bonds unmoved, yield still 8% - Elon expects to be profitable each quarter in 2019 Misc: Lots of analysts congratualting Tesla saying they've got the supply side sovled. Shrinking sales on the high end indicate taht their next challenge will be on the demand side, especially on the high end that allowed them to survive for so long Can they be profitable with $1000 in margin per car instead of 5,000-10,000? Interesting note by Bloomberg > Services reported a loss of almost $500M "So basically, Tesla is taking a $500 million hit just to save customers from the dealership experience."
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- 11thEarlOfMar 8y ago
  "Services and Other" from the consolidated statement of ops shows: Q4 Services and Other Revenue: $531 MM Q4 Services and Other Cost Of Revenue: $668 MM Which would suggest a loss on services of $137 MM. Is this the same 'Services' that Bloomberg is referring to? I cannot find any other mention of Services in the letter.
  - chollida1 8y ago
    Services number is YoY in the columns beside where you are probably looking $1,880,354,000 costs - $1,391,041,000 revenues is $(489,313,000) in losses
    - 11thEarlOfMar 8y ago
      Of course, thanks.
- Traster 8y ago
  You mention solar is a big nothing burger. I remember when the acquisition happened there was quite an outcry about Tesla basically bailing out Musk's other company. Do they have a liability here or is it just going to disappear into the ether?
  - dragontamer 8y ago
    Why would it be a liability? Shareholders voted and accepted the purchase of SolarCity. I agree its sketchy, but Musk doesn't technically control the company. He has a large share of the voting pool, but the shareholders in general were willing to bail out SolarCity. Its kinda "Democracy in action". I think it was a stupid move for the shareholders to do, but its fully within their rights to do so.
    - jampekka 8y ago
      To nitpick, it's literally plutocracy, not democracy.
      - dragontamer 8y ago
        Fair enough. The Stock Market is a pay-to-play game for sure.
    - marvin 8y ago
      Didn't also Musk abstain from voting before the SolarCity acquisition? That's what I remember, anyway.
      - deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
      - dragontamer 8y ago
        Yes. Musk abstained from voting. Musk made his opinion known, but otherwise "fairly" let the shareholders vote on the issue. At least technically fair. It was 85% in favor of merging. I say "technically", because Musk also went around trying to convince people that they should allow SCTY to be acquired by TSLA. But hey, shareholders trust Musk and were willing to follow his opinion on the matter. So I guess its fair overall. A stupid move, but fair.
- fosco 8y ago
  I am getting familiar with your summaries like this which I really appreciate. I am interested if you are writing these up or obtaining them through a script or other service? Thanks again!
  - waterside81 8y ago
    He works for a hedge fund in Toronto (or used to?). Pretty sure these are all his own words. And you’re right they’re great. Whenever there’s earnings reports from the big tech companies - his are the first comments I look for.
- threeseed 8y ago
  For me the next couple of years are going to make or break Tesla. You have pretty much every car manufacturer releasing flagship electric cars in 2019/2020. And most of them are either cheaper than Tesla or offer far more value i.e. premium branding and better interiors. And whilst they have their Supercharger network I suspect that pretty soon we will governments intervening to regulate standards and build out infrastructure. So they better get ready quickly before the onslaught comes and like you said be profitable if margins drop.
  - rconti 8y ago
    Electrify America has an order of magnitude more money to spend on charging than Tesla used to build their supercharger network. That said, they seem to be using it to buy charging networks but so far the experience isn't improving. Conventional EV roadtrip charging is years behind Tesla. I'm not sure "premium branding" for the competition matters vs Tesla, as I don't think the latter has a downmarket reputation. Interior/existing brand relationships I can see helping the conventional players. Range doesn't seem to be there even on the models supposedly coming out this year. It seems like we keep hearing the Tesla killer is coming Real Soon Like Now. Still, I ultimately agree they need to sustain through the onslaught, it just seems like it's taking longer than expected.
  - RobLach 8y ago
    I have a feeling Tesla didn’t capitalize enough on their first mover advantage and now it’s going to be tough as proper competitors move into the market. Audi is matching the Model X with the E-Tron, but without Tesla build quality: https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron Volvo Drive-E, Jaguar I-Pace, new Nissan Leaf; similar stories.
  - btilly 8y ago
    As I most recently pointed out in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18712442 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18712442, there is good reason to believe that all the other car manufacturers are going to learn the hard way that their interests do not align with their dealers. Which means that consumers will learn that they shouldn't go to existing car companies to buy electric cars. Which does not bode well for the future of existing car companies. (This is a prediction that I've been aware of for around 20 years now. And the form of the problem - that existing tech manufacturer's wind up hamstrung by their existing supply and sales networks, is a common one for companies that get destroyed by disruptive innovation.)
- ChuckMcM 8y ago
  Nice summary! I was under the impression that the services loss was from the free electricity they gave out at superchargers to some owners. Their boosting of the prices there was a response to converting that line into a something at least revenue neutral. Also no details on how they proceed with their power swap arrangements. Personally I expect them to use the Google hack where they create a wholly owned subsidiary that is a registered power company so that they can negotiate at grid rates for power rather than with various power providing entities where the super chargers are located.
  - greglindahl 8y ago
    The amount of money lost in services is way too big to be free electricity.
    - cmurphycode 8y ago
      You could estimate this in a couple different approaches, here's one. Tesla Model 3: 26 kwhr / 100 mi Model S: 33 kwhr / 100 mi Model X: 39 kwhr / 100 mi Hard to say where the balance of supercharging comes from (more expensive models more likely to have it free, but maybe less likely to use?) so let's be generous and call it 30 kwhr/100mi I pay 24 cents per kwhr but I hope their average price is more like 10 cents (not even counting the solar...) So each 100 miles charged would cost $3. So 100 million dollars spent giving out electricity would generate 3.3 billion miles charged. Back in september there were 20 million telsa miles driven per day, but a year long projection would be hard given the fast growth of model 3. let's just say 20M per day. That's about half of the year's miles driven covered with 100M. I can't imagine that even 1/2 of the total miles driven are charged by superchargers. So I am inclined to agree with you; the free-supercharging-electricity costs are probably a small piece of the total 500M.
- Pharmakon 8y ago
  Tesla also just lost another CFO. Deepak Ahuja announced he’s leaving. Again. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/musk-says-tesla-cfo-deepak-ahuja-is-leaving-the-company.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/musk-says-tesla-cfo-deepak-a...
  - xkjkls 8y ago
    And this much turmoil in an accounting department is never good. In the last year, they've lost 5 finance VPs, their CFO, and a CAO that they hired and left a month into his tenure. That would be shocking for any other $50 billion market cap company.
    - Pharmakon 8y ago
      Oh absolutely. That much unplanned churn in the financial sector of a Girl Guides troop would be shocking! In a $50 billion market cap company it’s downright alarming. I really don’t know exactly what to make of it, but it factored into my decision to leave the stock the hell alone.
      - ksec 8y ago
        That is if they have something to hide, but since they are public and have to go through Audit. I wonder why are al these Financial people leaving.
        kgwgk 8y ago
        Yes, they are public and have to go through audit and that's why all these people want to spend more time with their families... Probably the departing interim CFO won't be signing the 10-K filing, and apparently they weren't able to find anyone better than Zach willing to do so.
  - kgwgk 8y ago
    Elon: "And we thought long and hard about who the right person is to take over from Deepak, and that's Zach. And Zach has been with Tesla now for nine years... [...] So Zach, you had management and technology at Wharton undergrad and then worked at Tesla and then spent a couple of years at Harvard Business School, which I actually don't think was necessary, by the way."
anilshanbhag 8y ago
Looks like everyone is worried about a few percentage points up and down in financial numbers. There are three keys points I took away: 1) We expect the capital spend per unit of capacity for this factory to be less than half of that of our Model 3 line in Fremont. 2) Since Model Y will be built on the Model 3 platform and is designed to share about 75% of its components with Model 3, the cost of the Model Y production line should be substantially lower than the Model 3 line in Fremont, and the production ramp should also be faster. 3) This year, we will continue to implement more automation projects, and our ongoing cost reduction efforts will also make an impact. In the end if Tesla wants to achieve its mission of moving to world to sustainable energy, costs need to go down. Every quarter they are making improvements and the three points above show significantly potential to further improve costs. The global auto market at $2 trillion is gigantic and good fraction of it is going to be electric - it is really a race to improve costs and Tesla is significantly ahead of the pack so far.
- rjplatte 8y ago
  This is the best breakdown I've seen yet. I doubt we'll see the "Production Hell" experienced with the Model 3 again.
- ucaetano 8y ago
  Given how wrong forward-looking statements by Tesla are, any forward-looking statement is largely irrelevant at this point. So the only thing that actually matters is results: how they performed last quarter.
- threeseed 8y ago
  > Tesla is significantly ahead of the pack so far Not really. Audi e-tron, Jaguar iPace and BMW i3 are all well reviewed. And 2019/2020 will see a wave of car companies e.g. Hyundai, Mercedes entering the market including plenty of interesting startups coming out of China. So Tesla is going to need far more to differentiate themselves than just range.
  - drudru11 8y ago
    Anecdotal, but a friend of a friend bought the jag. He is having a very poor experience with the car.
Cyclone_ 8y ago
I think Tesla may start to face issues when the other automakers start coming out with electric cars within the next few years. I sold off all my stock in Tesla, although I think they may still be a good short term bet. The supercharger network and cool factor is their big advantage at the moment, but I think in the future they won't do as well when there's more competition.
- NickM 8y ago
  I think Tesla may start to face issues when the other automakers start coming out with electric cars within the next few years. Perhaps, but people have been saying exactly this about Tesla for the last ten years now. Hasn’t been an issue for them yet, despite much improvement in the EV offerings from other manufacturers.
  - danhak 8y ago
    Not only has it not been an issue...Tesla's share of plug-in sales has been increasing dramatically year over year. Cadillac ELR, BMW i3, Chevy Volt, Chevy Bolt were all billed and hyped as "Tesla Killers" upon launch. https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ To date, no other manufacture has announced any plans to procure enough battery supply to produce cars in comparable volume to Tesla.
    - MBCook 8y ago
      To date. But more and more manufacturers are biting at their heels for the chance. With better and better cars.
      - stevehawk 8y ago
        that aren't selling nearly as well... https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
  - logrott 8y ago
dmode 8y ago
These numbers are unreal. From 100 cars in 2011 to 140,000 Model 3s (+100K Model X and S) in 2019. And all electric. I personally am not interested in minor changes in financials, and want to just sit back and marvel the machine that Tesla and Elon Musk has created. Kudos to everyone at Tesla.
- ccorda 8y ago
  $TSLA annual revenue (billions) 2018: $21.46 2017: $11.76 2016: $7.00 2015: $4.05 2014: $3.20 2013: $2.01 2012: $0.41 2011: $0.20 2010: $0.12 2009: $0.11 2008: $0.01 CAGR: 2 yr: 75% 5 yr: 60% 10 yr: 107% source: https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1090719629922746374 https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1090719629922746374 It's interesting to overlay Tesla 2014 - 2019 with Apple 2002 - 2007. Now what Apple did from there will be tough to match (not to mention the margins): https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-through-the-lens-of-apple https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-through-the-lens-of-ap...
  - dmode 8y ago
    Thank you for putting these numbers out. Also, kind of reminds me of Facebook revenue growth
thesausageking 8y ago
Model Y. So Tesla will have four models: S 3 X Y
- wedn3sday 8y ago
  I dont think this is an accident.
- alasdair_ 8y ago
  They wanted “model e” but ford owned the trademark.
- xutopia 8y ago
  That isn't an accident. The Model 3 was meant to be called Model E but Ford owns the rights to that name even though they haven't marketed a Model E in forever.
kornish 8y ago
Looks like shares dropped a bit in after-hours. Likely related to the CFO planning to leave during 2019, which was not in the earnings letter. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/musk-says-tesla-cfo-deepak-ahuja-is-leaving-the-company.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/musk-says-tesla-cfo-deepak-a...
jesscxc 8y ago
Is there another vehicle company that is close to Tesla in self-driving capabilities? If Teslas drive themselves and other EVs don't, are they a comparable car?
- xkjkls 8y ago
  Tesla's don't drive themselves though. Tesla has removed the FSD option from all it's model's since October. Most self driving engineers don't actual believe the strategy of using only standard cameras installed in the vehicle is going to work out long term, and their self driving unit has less funding than BMW's, GM's Cruise division, Google or Uber. It's hard to see how they win the self driving game, and if they do, it will be years off.
11thEarlOfMar 8y ago
Interesting set of charts here: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-30/tesla-shares-violently-unchanged-investors-try-figure-out-what-musk-just-reported https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-30/tesla-shares-viole...
sidcool 8y ago
What Tesla has achieved in the past decade is a miracle. Their success is a combination of luck and the resolve of everyone at Tesla. But given the tall odds and strong pessimism from multiple groups, it's a marvel they continue to thrive. Kudos Team Tesla!

106 points by 11thEarlOfMar 8y ago

Pre: - Will they give guidance on Model 3, Geographic breakdown(most other peers do)? - how many sales are high end cars vs low end? - TSLA down 11% on year vs market up 5ish - convertable debt issue, we're now in the 20 day average window, option implied vols show market doesn't think they'll make it - Elon commented that they could pay bond w cash and didn't seem concerned, cash balance is up, though so are short term liabilities Car Notes: - current lowest price car sold is Model 3 $44,000 - reported to sustain 7,000 per week, a pretty big miss from the 10,000 that elon claimed they'd be at by mid 2018 but expected - Est. 2019 delivered 360,000 to 400,000 - Est. Q1 delivers expected to be down vs 2018 - Est. Q1 deliveries expected to be down in North America - still no funding secured for China plant Solar: - why even track anymore, installations fell, yawn Numbers: - cash balance is 3.7B - cash flow positive again!!, beat last quarter, though capital spending fell alot( down to $300ish million) - 4Q Adj EPS $1.93, Est. $2.14 (Big misses, what happend here?) - layoffs could cut $400M annually from budget - Customer Deposits $792.6M vs $908.5M in 3Q - Bonds unmoved, yield still 8% - Elon expects to be profitable each quarter in 2019 Misc: Lots of analysts congratualting Tesla saying they've got the supply side sovled. Shrinking sales on the high end indicate taht their next challenge will be on the demand side, especially on the high end that allowed them to survive for so long Can they be profitable with $1000 in margin per car instead of 5,000-10,000? Interesting note by Bloomberg > Services reported a loss of almost $500M "So basically, Tesla is taking a $500 million hit just to save customers from the dealership experience."

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
11thEarlOfMar 8y ago
"Services and Other" from the consolidated statement of ops shows: Q4 Services and Other Revenue: $531 MM Q4 Services and Other Cost Of Revenue: $668 MM Which would suggest a loss on services of $137 MM. Is this the same 'Services' that Bloomberg is referring to? I cannot find any other mention of Services in the letter.
- chollida1 8y ago
  Services number is YoY in the columns beside where you are probably looking $1,880,354,000 costs - $1,391,041,000 revenues is $(489,313,000) in losses
  - 11thEarlOfMar 8y ago
    Of course, thanks.
Traster 8y ago
You mention solar is a big nothing burger. I remember when the acquisition happened there was quite an outcry about Tesla basically bailing out Musk's other company. Do they have a liability here or is it just going to disappear into the ether?
- dragontamer 8y ago
  Why would it be a liability? Shareholders voted and accepted the purchase of SolarCity. I agree its sketchy, but Musk doesn't technically control the company. He has a large share of the voting pool, but the shareholders in general were willing to bail out SolarCity. Its kinda "Democracy in action". I think it was a stupid move for the shareholders to do, but its fully within their rights to do so.
  - jampekka 8y ago
    To nitpick, it's literally plutocracy, not democracy.
    - dragontamer 8y ago
      Fair enough. The Stock Market is a pay-to-play game for sure.
  - marvin 8y ago
    Didn't also Musk abstain from voting before the SolarCity acquisition? That's what I remember, anyway.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
    - dragontamer 8y ago
      Yes. Musk abstained from voting. Musk made his opinion known, but otherwise "fairly" let the shareholders vote on the issue. At least technically fair. It was 85% in favor of merging. I say "technically", because Musk also went around trying to convince people that they should allow SCTY to be acquired by TSLA. But hey, shareholders trust Musk and were willing to follow his opinion on the matter. So I guess its fair overall. A stupid move, but fair.
fosco 8y ago
I am getting familiar with your summaries like this which I really appreciate. I am interested if you are writing these up or obtaining them through a script or other service? Thanks again!
- waterside81 8y ago
  He works for a hedge fund in Toronto (or used to?). Pretty sure these are all his own words. And you’re right they’re great. Whenever there’s earnings reports from the big tech companies - his are the first comments I look for.
threeseed 8y ago
For me the next couple of years are going to make or break Tesla. You have pretty much every car manufacturer releasing flagship electric cars in 2019/2020. And most of them are either cheaper than Tesla or offer far more value i.e. premium branding and better interiors. And whilst they have their Supercharger network I suspect that pretty soon we will governments intervening to regulate standards and build out infrastructure. So they better get ready quickly before the onslaught comes and like you said be profitable if margins drop.
- rconti 8y ago
  Electrify America has an order of magnitude more money to spend on charging than Tesla used to build their supercharger network. That said, they seem to be using it to buy charging networks but so far the experience isn't improving. Conventional EV roadtrip charging is years behind Tesla. I'm not sure "premium branding" for the competition matters vs Tesla, as I don't think the latter has a downmarket reputation. Interior/existing brand relationships I can see helping the conventional players. Range doesn't seem to be there even on the models supposedly coming out this year. It seems like we keep hearing the Tesla killer is coming Real Soon Like Now. Still, I ultimately agree they need to sustain through the onslaught, it just seems like it's taking longer than expected.
- RobLach 8y ago
  I have a feeling Tesla didn’t capitalize enough on their first mover advantage and now it’s going to be tough as proper competitors move into the market. Audi is matching the Model X with the E-Tron, but without Tesla build quality: https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron Volvo Drive-E, Jaguar I-Pace, new Nissan Leaf; similar stories.
- btilly 8y ago
  As I most recently pointed out in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18712442 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18712442, there is good reason to believe that all the other car manufacturers are going to learn the hard way that their interests do not align with their dealers. Which means that consumers will learn that they shouldn't go to existing car companies to buy electric cars. Which does not bode well for the future of existing car companies. (This is a prediction that I've been aware of for around 20 years now. And the form of the problem - that existing tech manufacturer's wind up hamstrung by their existing supply and sales networks, is a common one for companies that get destroyed by disruptive innovation.)
ChuckMcM 8y ago
Nice summary! I was under the impression that the services loss was from the free electricity they gave out at superchargers to some owners. Their boosting of the prices there was a response to converting that line into a something at least revenue neutral. Also no details on how they proceed with their power swap arrangements. Personally I expect them to use the Google hack where they create a wholly owned subsidiary that is a registered power company so that they can negotiate at grid rates for power rather than with various power providing entities where the super chargers are located.
- greglindahl 8y ago
  The amount of money lost in services is way too big to be free electricity.
  - cmurphycode 8y ago
    You could estimate this in a couple different approaches, here's one. Tesla Model 3: 26 kwhr / 100 mi Model S: 33 kwhr / 100 mi Model X: 39 kwhr / 100 mi Hard to say where the balance of supercharging comes from (more expensive models more likely to have it free, but maybe less likely to use?) so let's be generous and call it 30 kwhr/100mi I pay 24 cents per kwhr but I hope their average price is more like 10 cents (not even counting the solar...) So each 100 miles charged would cost $3. So 100 million dollars spent giving out electricity would generate 3.3 billion miles charged. Back in september there were 20 million telsa miles driven per day, but a year long projection would be hard given the fast growth of model 3. let's just say 20M per day. That's about half of the year's miles driven covered with 100M. I can't imagine that even 1/2 of the total miles driven are charged by superchargers. So I am inclined to agree with you; the free-supercharging-electricity costs are probably a small piece of the total 500M.
Pharmakon 8y ago
Tesla also just lost another CFO. Deepak Ahuja announced he’s leaving. Again. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/musk-says-tesla-cfo-deepak-ahuja-is-leaving-the-company.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/musk-says-tesla-cfo-deepak-a...
- xkjkls 8y ago
  And this much turmoil in an accounting department is never good. In the last year, they've lost 5 finance VPs, their CFO, and a CAO that they hired and left a month into his tenure. That would be shocking for any other $50 billion market cap company.
  - Pharmakon 8y ago
    Oh absolutely. That much unplanned churn in the financial sector of a Girl Guides troop would be shocking! In a $50 billion market cap company it’s downright alarming. I really don’t know exactly what to make of it, but it factored into my decision to leave the stock the hell alone.
    - ksec 8y ago
      That is if they have something to hide, but since they are public and have to go through Audit. I wonder why are al these Financial people leaving.
      - kgwgk 8y ago
        Yes, they are public and have to go through audit and that's why all these people want to spend more time with their families... Probably the departing interim CFO won't be signing the 10-K filing, and apparently they weren't able to find anyone better than Zach willing to do so.
- kgwgk 8y ago
  Elon: "And we thought long and hard about who the right person is to take over from Deepak, and that's Zach. And Zach has been with Tesla now for nine years... [...] So Zach, you had management and technology at Wharton undergrad and then worked at Tesla and then spent a couple of years at Harvard Business School, which I actually don't think was necessary, by the way."

anilshanbhag 8y ago

Looks like everyone is worried about a few percentage points up and down in financial numbers. There are three keys points I took away: 1) We expect the capital spend per unit of capacity for this factory to be less than half of that of our Model 3 line in Fremont. 2) Since Model Y will be built on the Model 3 platform and is designed to share about 75% of its components with Model 3, the cost of the Model Y production line should be substantially lower than the Model 3 line in Fremont, and the production ramp should also be faster. 3) This year, we will continue to implement more automation projects, and our ongoing cost reduction efforts will also make an impact. In the end if Tesla wants to achieve its mission of moving to world to sustainable energy, costs need to go down. Every quarter they are making improvements and the three points above show significantly potential to further improve costs. The global auto market at $2 trillion is gigantic and good fraction of it is going to be electric - it is really a race to improve costs and Tesla is significantly ahead of the pack so far.

rjplatte 8y ago
This is the best breakdown I've seen yet. I doubt we'll see the "Production Hell" experienced with the Model 3 again.
ucaetano 8y ago
Given how wrong forward-looking statements by Tesla are, any forward-looking statement is largely irrelevant at this point. So the only thing that actually matters is results: how they performed last quarter.
threeseed 8y ago
> Tesla is significantly ahead of the pack so far Not really. Audi e-tron, Jaguar iPace and BMW i3 are all well reviewed. And 2019/2020 will see a wave of car companies e.g. Hyundai, Mercedes entering the market including plenty of interesting startups coming out of China. So Tesla is going to need far more to differentiate themselves than just range.
- drudru11 8y ago
  Anecdotal, but a friend of a friend bought the jag. He is having a very poor experience with the car.

Cyclone_ 8y ago

I think Tesla may start to face issues when the other automakers start coming out with electric cars within the next few years. I sold off all my stock in Tesla, although I think they may still be a good short term bet. The supercharger network and cool factor is their big advantage at the moment, but I think in the future they won't do as well when there's more competition.

NickM 8y ago
I think Tesla may start to face issues when the other automakers start coming out with electric cars within the next few years. Perhaps, but people have been saying exactly this about Tesla for the last ten years now. Hasn’t been an issue for them yet, despite much improvement in the EV offerings from other manufacturers.
- danhak 8y ago
  Not only has it not been an issue...Tesla's share of plug-in sales has been increasing dramatically year over year. Cadillac ELR, BMW i3, Chevy Volt, Chevy Bolt were all billed and hyped as "Tesla Killers" upon launch. https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ To date, no other manufacture has announced any plans to procure enough battery supply to produce cars in comparable volume to Tesla.
  - MBCook 8y ago
    To date. But more and more manufacturers are biting at their heels for the chance. With better and better cars.
    - stevehawk 8y ago
      that aren't selling nearly as well... https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
- logrott 8y ago

dmode 8y ago

These numbers are unreal. From 100 cars in 2011 to 140,000 Model 3s (+100K Model X and S) in 2019. And all electric. I personally am not interested in minor changes in financials, and want to just sit back and marvel the machine that Tesla and Elon Musk has created. Kudos to everyone at Tesla.

ccorda 8y ago
$TSLA annual revenue (billions) 2018: $21.46 2017: $11.76 2016: $7.00 2015: $4.05 2014: $3.20 2013: $2.01 2012: $0.41 2011: $0.20 2010: $0.12 2009: $0.11 2008: $0.01 CAGR: 2 yr: 75% 5 yr: 60% 10 yr: 107% source: https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1090719629922746374 https://twitter.com/TeslaPodcast/status/1090719629922746374 It's interesting to overlay Tesla 2014 - 2019 with Apple 2002 - 2007. Now what Apple did from there will be tough to match (not to mention the margins): https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-through-the-lens-of-apple https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-through-the-lens-of-ap...
- dmode 8y ago
  Thank you for putting these numbers out. Also, kind of reminds me of Facebook revenue growth

thesausageking 8y ago

Model Y. So Tesla will have four models: S 3 X Y

wedn3sday 8y ago
I dont think this is an accident.
alasdair_ 8y ago
They wanted “model e” but ford owned the trademark.
xutopia 8y ago
That isn't an accident. The Model 3 was meant to be called Model E but Ford owns the rights to that name even though they haven't marketed a Model E in forever.

kornish 8y ago

Looks like shares dropped a bit in after-hours. Likely related to the CFO planning to leave during 2019, which was not in the earnings letter. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/musk-says-tesla-cfo-deepak-ahuja-is-leaving-the-company.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/musk-says-tesla-cfo-deepak-a...

jesscxc 8y ago

Is there another vehicle company that is close to Tesla in self-driving capabilities? If Teslas drive themselves and other EVs don't, are they a comparable car?

xkjkls 8y ago
Tesla's don't drive themselves though. Tesla has removed the FSD option from all it's model's since October. Most self driving engineers don't actual believe the strategy of using only standard cameras installed in the vehicle is going to work out long term, and their self driving unit has less funding than BMW's, GM's Cruise division, Google or Uber. It's hard to see how they win the self driving game, and if they do, it will be years off.

11thEarlOfMar 8y ago

Interesting set of charts here: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-30/tesla-shares-violently-unchanged-investors-try-figure-out-what-musk-just-reported https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-30/tesla-shares-viole...

sidcool 8y ago

What Tesla has achieved in the past decade is a miracle. Their success is a combination of luck and the resolve of everyone at Tesla. But given the tall odds and strong pessimism from multiple groups, it's a marvel they continue to thrive. Kudos Team Tesla!