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Notes..... Pre Release: - first time since 2001 that Apple will report a decline in its most critical quarter - Options showing an implied 5.6% one-day chang

Notes..... Pre Release: - first time since 2001 that Apple will report a decline in its most critical quarter - Options showing an implied 5.6% one-day change. - Slightly higher than the average move of 4.4% following the last eight releases - Shares traded down on day on average volume - Market Cap is now below AMZN, GOOG, and MSFT Numbers: - cash on hand(net not gross) $130 Billion - 1Q EPS $4.18, Est. $4.17 - 1Q Rev. $84.3B, Est. $83.97B - 1Q Service Rev. $10.88B - 1Q China Rev. $13.17B down big from $17.9 last year Revenue by Product: - iPhone: $52 billion - Services: $10.9 billion - Mac: $7.4 billion - Wearables/Home/Accessories: $7.3 billion (up from 5.5 billion last year) - iPad: $6.7 billion - reportedly returned $13 billion via buy backs and dividends last quarter Forward Numbers: - 2Q Rev. $55B to $59B, Est. $58.97B Misc: - suppliers up slightly - North America grew revenues. - user base is at 1.4 billion, impressive that they rival FB in metrics like this when FB is free and iPhones are most decidedly not.

hi5eyes 8y ago
$13 billion in revenue from China last quarter, down 27% from a year ago https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/29/apple-china-revenue-q1-2019.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/29/apple-china-revenue-q1-2019....
- std_throwawayay 8y ago
  Do we have any reliable information if this is just Apple or if Chinese consumption is down across the board?
  - erik 8y ago
    Nvidia also reported Chinese consumer consumption being down in their results.
  - blackoil 8y ago
    As per [1] overall Chinese smartphone market is down 11%. Huawei seems to be doing good in China, Xiaomi/Oppo may have seen some decline in China but they made up for that in India where Apple is negligible. [1] https://www.strategyanalytics.com/zh/strategy-analytics/blogs/devices/handset-country-share/handset-country-share/2019/01/24/china-smartphone-shipments-fell-11-in-q4-2018 https://www.strategyanalytics.com/zh/strategy-analytics/blog...
  - GeekyBear 8y ago
    Across the board. >DONGGUAN, China — China’s consumers and businesses are losing confidence. Car sales have plunged. The housing market is stumbling. Some factories are letting workers off for the big Lunar New Year holiday two months early. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/14/business/china-economy-xi-jinping.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/14/business/china-economy-xi...
  - cronix 8y ago
    They are all down (their economy in general), but there is also a concerted effort by some in China to not use Apple products, especially after the Huawei incident. > Chinese companies are now threatening employees by demanding they not purchase any Apple products whatsoever, going so far to withhold bonuses, garnish wages or even terminate an uncooperative employee.[1] [1] https://9to5mac.com/2018/12/24/huawei-iphone-termination-apple/ https://9to5mac.com/2018/12/24/huawei-iphone-termination-app... The Chinese courts also blocked iphone sales in China over Qualcomm. My understanding is the newest line of phones weren't affected (they used intel modems), but it affected the older models - which are obviously cheaper and more attractive to the avg. Chinese person compared to the $1,000+ flagships. Both might not be huge factors in themselves, but probably contributed to Apples decline more than the other brands. It wasn't a proportionate decline across all brands. Apple was hit harder.
    - GeekyBear 8y ago
      >The Chinese courts also blocked iphone sales in China over Qualcomm. My understanding is the newest line of phones weren't affected (they used intel modems The Qualcomm patents in the China suit were software patents unrelated to cellular modems. >The patents allow users to edit and resize photos and manage apps by using a touchscreen, according to the lawsuit. https://observer.com/2018/12/qualcomm-lawsuit-iphone-ban-china-apple/ https://observer.com/2018/12/qualcomm-lawsuit-iphone-ban-chi... Apple has already issued a patch with a software workaround. You may be thinking about the case in Germany.
  - adventured 8y ago
    Samsung is seeing the same hit out of China. Jan 8 "Samsung said fourth quarter profits would likely come in at around 10.8 trillion Korean won ($9.67 billion), well shy of the market consensus of 13.2 trillion won, with sales falling 11% to 59 trillion won. Samsung only has a 1% share of the China handset market, compared to around 9% for Apple, but its chips and screens make their way into handsets made by Huawei Technologies, as well as Apple's iPhones, and that segment comprises a much larger portion of its operating profits" https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/apple-v-samsung-china-slowdown-hits-smartphone-giants-but-not-equally-14827288 https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/apple-v-samsung-c...
BartBoch 8y ago
1,4 billion user-base? I wonder how they calculate this. It looks like non-unique users (devices connected). Or maybe lifetime accounts number.
- saagarjha 8y ago
  I believe it's the number of unique devices that connect to one of their services in a month, or something similar to that.
  - gdilla 8y ago
    That wouldn't be a user base though. People have N apple devices each. Could be unique appleIDs to use the appstores.
    - saagarjha 8y ago
      Since you need an Apple ID to access their services, I'm sure it's easy to deduplicate users.
- ahakki 8y ago
  According to Tim Cook on the earnings call he called it "active install base". Make of that what you will.
  - tqkxzugoaupvwqr 8y ago
    Sounds like actively used devices. Which means the number of users is lower as some/many people use more than one Apple device.
- pmontra 8y ago
  Are they counting iTunes on Windows?
  - cm2187 8y ago
    Well, he didn't say happy users.

hi5eyes 8y ago

$13 billion in revenue from China last quarter, down 27% from a year ago https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/29/apple-china-revenue-q1-2019.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/29/apple-china-revenue-q1-2019....

std_throwawayay 8y ago
Do we have any reliable information if this is just Apple or if Chinese consumption is down across the board?
- erik 8y ago
  Nvidia also reported Chinese consumer consumption being down in their results.
- blackoil 8y ago
  As per [1] overall Chinese smartphone market is down 11%. Huawei seems to be doing good in China, Xiaomi/Oppo may have seen some decline in China but they made up for that in India where Apple is negligible. [1] https://www.strategyanalytics.com/zh/strategy-analytics/blogs/devices/handset-country-share/handset-country-share/2019/01/24/china-smartphone-shipments-fell-11-in-q4-2018 https://www.strategyanalytics.com/zh/strategy-analytics/blog...
- GeekyBear 8y ago
  Across the board. >DONGGUAN, China — China’s consumers and businesses are losing confidence. Car sales have plunged. The housing market is stumbling. Some factories are letting workers off for the big Lunar New Year holiday two months early. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/14/business/china-economy-xi-jinping.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/14/business/china-economy-xi...
- cronix 8y ago
  They are all down (their economy in general), but there is also a concerted effort by some in China to not use Apple products, especially after the Huawei incident. > Chinese companies are now threatening employees by demanding they not purchase any Apple products whatsoever, going so far to withhold bonuses, garnish wages or even terminate an uncooperative employee.[1] [1] https://9to5mac.com/2018/12/24/huawei-iphone-termination-apple/ https://9to5mac.com/2018/12/24/huawei-iphone-termination-app... The Chinese courts also blocked iphone sales in China over Qualcomm. My understanding is the newest line of phones weren't affected (they used intel modems), but it affected the older models - which are obviously cheaper and more attractive to the avg. Chinese person compared to the $1,000+ flagships. Both might not be huge factors in themselves, but probably contributed to Apples decline more than the other brands. It wasn't a proportionate decline across all brands. Apple was hit harder.
  - GeekyBear 8y ago
    >The Chinese courts also blocked iphone sales in China over Qualcomm. My understanding is the newest line of phones weren't affected (they used intel modems The Qualcomm patents in the China suit were software patents unrelated to cellular modems. >The patents allow users to edit and resize photos and manage apps by using a touchscreen, according to the lawsuit. https://observer.com/2018/12/qualcomm-lawsuit-iphone-ban-china-apple/ https://observer.com/2018/12/qualcomm-lawsuit-iphone-ban-chi... Apple has already issued a patch with a software workaround. You may be thinking about the case in Germany.
- adventured 8y ago
  Samsung is seeing the same hit out of China. Jan 8 "Samsung said fourth quarter profits would likely come in at around 10.8 trillion Korean won ($9.67 billion), well shy of the market consensus of 13.2 trillion won, with sales falling 11% to 59 trillion won. Samsung only has a 1% share of the China handset market, compared to around 9% for Apple, but its chips and screens make their way into handsets made by Huawei Technologies, as well as Apple's iPhones, and that segment comprises a much larger portion of its operating profits" https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/apple-v-samsung-china-slowdown-hits-smartphone-giants-but-not-equally-14827288 https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/apple-v-samsung-c...

BartBoch 8y ago

1,4 billion user-base? I wonder how they calculate this. It looks like non-unique users (devices connected). Or maybe lifetime accounts number.

saagarjha 8y ago
I believe it's the number of unique devices that connect to one of their services in a month, or something similar to that.
- gdilla 8y ago
  That wouldn't be a user base though. People have N apple devices each. Could be unique appleIDs to use the appstores.
  - saagarjha 8y ago
    Since you need an Apple ID to access their services, I'm sure it's easy to deduplicate users.
ahakki 8y ago
According to Tim Cook on the earnings call he called it "active install base". Make of that what you will.
- tqkxzugoaupvwqr 8y ago
  Sounds like actively used devices. Which means the number of users is lower as some/many people use more than one Apple device.
pmontra 8y ago
Are they counting iTunes on Windows?
- cm2187 8y ago
  Well, he didn't say happy users.