4 ms·

Anyone remember peak oil? What happened?

mrep 8y ago
They assumed technology would not improve to make other sources which were previously un-economical to extract economical.
lenticular 8y ago
Nobody knowledgeable in geology ever thought peak oil was an issue. Simply put, prices rose quickly in those days because there wasn't enough oil being drilled for the demand. Oil prices are highly inelastic, so prices rose considerably until more supply came in through new conventional and non-conventional drilling. There's loads of oil in the ground for the right price (but for God's sake, we should leave as much there as possible).
- atomic77 8y ago
  As you indirectly allude to, peak oil is an economic issue, not a geological one. Due to a combination of technological ingenuity and externalities in the form of current and future environmental degradation, we've been able to so far avoid the point where oil cannot be profitably produced for a price that consumers can afford to pay.
dekhn 8y ago
it was not based on realistic estimates of future oil availability.
cstejerean 8y ago
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2018/06/29/what-ever-happened-to-peak-oil/#60c25481731a https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2018/06/29/what-ev...
learc83 8y ago
The same thing that always happens. People make extrapolations assuming that something will continue to grow at it's current rate. They forget that there are dynamic systems and feedback mechanisms at play. "Ebola is spreading at an exponential rate. There will be 200 million deaths by next year." "Soviet GDP is growing 10% per year. Their economy will be the largest in the world in 15 years." "Japanese GDP is growing 7% per year. Their economy will be the largest in the world in 20 years." "The world's population increases at 2% per year. We'll have 50 billion people in 2100."
- zaroth 8y ago
  And what do you have to say about those global average temperature charts?
  - learc83 8y ago
    Feedback loops aren't always negative, and even if there is a small chance for a positive feedback loop with respect to increasing temperatures, we should take action now and attempt to reduce carbon emissions. I also think that if there is a reinforcing temperature feedback loop, this isn't likely to happen to happen fast enough--at least through behavior changes. So we should focus most of our resources on developing better methods of energy production, increasing energy efficiency, and developing technology/methods to mitigate the damage of rising temperatures to human civilization.

mrep 8y ago

They assumed technology would not improve to make other sources which were previously un-economical to extract economical.

lenticular 8y ago

Nobody knowledgeable in geology ever thought peak oil was an issue. Simply put, prices rose quickly in those days because there wasn't enough oil being drilled for the demand. Oil prices are highly inelastic, so prices rose considerably until more supply came in through new conventional and non-conventional drilling. There's loads of oil in the ground for the right price (but for God's sake, we should leave as much there as possible).

atomic77 8y ago
As you indirectly allude to, peak oil is an economic issue, not a geological one. Due to a combination of technological ingenuity and externalities in the form of current and future environmental degradation, we've been able to so far avoid the point where oil cannot be profitably produced for a price that consumers can afford to pay.

dekhn 8y ago

it was not based on realistic estimates of future oil availability.

cstejerean 8y ago

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2018/06/29/what-ever-happened-to-peak-oil/#60c25481731a https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2018/06/29/what-ev...

learc83 8y ago

The same thing that always happens. People make extrapolations assuming that something will continue to grow at it's current rate. They forget that there are dynamic systems and feedback mechanisms at play. "Ebola is spreading at an exponential rate. There will be 200 million deaths by next year." "Soviet GDP is growing 10% per year. Their economy will be the largest in the world in 15 years." "Japanese GDP is growing 7% per year. Their economy will be the largest in the world in 20 years." "The world's population increases at 2% per year. We'll have 50 billion people in 2100."

zaroth 8y ago
And what do you have to say about those global average temperature charts?
- learc83 8y ago
  Feedback loops aren't always negative, and even if there is a small chance for a positive feedback loop with respect to increasing temperatures, we should take action now and attempt to reduce carbon emissions. I also think that if there is a reinforcing temperature feedback loop, this isn't likely to happen to happen fast enough--at least through behavior changes. So we should focus most of our resources on developing better methods of energy production, increasing energy efficiency, and developing technology/methods to mitigate the damage of rising temperatures to human civilization.