6 ms·

I've been modded down twice on HN for predicting that the whole Macintosh line is going to meet the same fate, and sooner than many would prefer. The success o

I've been modded down twice on HN for predicting that the whole Macintosh line is going to meet the same fate, and sooner than many would prefer. The success of the iOS consumer platforms has brought Apple to a fork in the road, and there are a few signs -- such as the quiet excision of the 'Computer' part of 'Apple Computer' -- that suggest they can read a map. Soooo... may as well make it three times.

Luyt 16y ago
Well, let me upvoted you for a change ;-) But what makes you think the Macintosh line will be abandoned by Apple? Mere aversion to product diversification? They discontinued the Xserve ("nobody buys the things"), but I have the impression that MacBooks and iMacs are selling quite well.
- CamperBob 16y ago
  I think it'll eventually make sense for them to focus on non-computer products because those are the ones that are selling insanely well. The local Apple stores are so full of customers and browsers that I'm surprised they haven't had problems with the fire marshal, and it isn't because people are mobbing the Mac displays. Computers, even Macs, are heavy on support costs and light on profit margins. A common argument is "Well, what do you think people are using to develop for all those iPhones, iPods, and iPads?" The answer to that one is, "What do you think people are using to develop for XBox 360s and PS3s?" It's true that you need a Mac to write iOS apps, but that's an arbitrary corporate policy, and not an inherent requirement.
  - smiler 16y ago
    They do have problems with customer numbers in stores and a fire limits. At my closest apple store on a saturday there is often a queue to get into the store with security controlling the numbers. It is one of the small store designs though
1337p337 16y ago
I think it's a valid prediction, but I don't think they'd accept programmers for Apple products using non-Apple products; I don't know what they'd do. But their servers are all (I hear) XServes, and they basically eat their own dog-food, so I'd expect a follow-up of some sort. Without MacBook Pros, I don't know how they'd develop new versions of iOS. Systems coding on iPads? Would they actually use Linux? Neither seems likely, but I wouldn't put it past them to beef up iOS to the point that their devs are using it, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if their new server line were to be based on 16-core ARMs running some form of iOS.
- CamperBob 16y ago
  I think it's a valid prediction, but I don't think they'd accept programmers for Apple products using non-Apple products; I don't know what they'd do. Sony doesn't mind people using PCs to develop for the PS3, and game development is murderously complex compared to anything developed for iOS either inside or outside Apple. But their servers are all (I hear) XServes, and they basically eat their own dog-food, so I'd expect a follow-up of some sort. You could be right but if there's a case for Apple to be in the server business, I sure don't see it.
neild 16y ago
Macs accounted for 27% of Apple's net sales in FY '10. Mac sales were up 26% over the previous year. In comparison, iPods accounted for 13% of net sales and, and grew only 2% over the previous year. Why, precisely, do you expect Apple to just throw away 25% of their business?
- CamperBob 16y ago
  Think of it this way. Imagine that Apple just came out of nowhere and released the iPhone, iPad, and iPod line. Do you think their next move would be to launch a line of proprietary computers? If you pitched that idea to Jobs, you'd probably be looking for work the next day. It would be that dumb.
  - kiiski 16y ago
    Maybe or maybe not, but that doesn't matter. They already sell computers and have lots of customers who want to buy them. I don't know much about business, but I would still have to say that it sounds just stupid to suddenly stop selling them.
  - jonknee 16y ago
    What would they write the iOS apps with? Mac OS X is critical to all of Apple's products.
    - CamperBob 16y ago
      See my other point. Does Sony have to build a line of proprietary PCs so that people can develop for the PS3?
      - blasdel 16y ago
        Of course they do, the most recent one is called the "PlayStation 3 Reference Tool", and costs about $10k to a qualified developer.
        16y ago
loewenskind 16y ago
You keep getting downvoted because it's unsubstantiated nonsense that defies logical expectations. Why would Mac kill their own development platform? Further, look Google as they thrash around desperate to diversify their revenue stream. Do you think it's sensible for Mac to go the opposite direction and pile all their eggs in one basket? Not to mention all the effort that went into creating this new unibody form factor. Should they just throw away all the resources they've put into doing that?
- zppx 16y ago
  Well, there was an effort in developing the Xserve line as well, apparently it was no problem for Apple to throw the entire Xserve effort in the trash bin. I think Apple will put less emphasis on the Mac in the next years, simplifying the line and reducing the products in the market, not so fast as he wishes, and this will be a trend in the entire industry, not only Apple. But that's my opinion and not a detailed analysis.
  - pillsy 16y ago
    They ditched the XServe because people just weren't buying them in any noticeable quantities. Apple sells a lot more Macs now then back when Macs were pretty all Apple made, so why would they decide to leave all that money on the table?
    - matwood 16y ago
      It's a chicken and the egg thing. People weren't buying them because they were not competitive with other rack servers anymore. By using your logic Apple could just not update the MacPro for a few years and then pull line because 'people weren't buying them.' Apple created the people not buying them situation though.
    - Tamerlin 16y ago
      I'm actually a little surprised that they took this long to make the decision to kill off the XServe. Back during the G5 crash-and-burn they stopped publishing separate XServe sales data, merging it into a collective "G5" sales bin, presumably to hide how drastically and quickly G5 sales tailed off after the initial surge of sales, followed by a lot of disappointment when their customers realized that their performance wasn't anywhere near where Apple claimed that it was.
aepstein 16y ago
And how do you expect iOS devs to create their mobile apps?
- CamperBob 16y ago
  How does Sony expect PS3 devs to create their games? Even though you can't plug a couple of monitors and a keyboard into a PS3 and run emacs and GCC on them, there are still plenty of "apps" for game consoles.
dreyfiz 16y ago
At the Back to the Mac event, Tim Cook pointed out that Apple's Mac business, if spun off into its own company, would be #110 on the Fortune 500. The Mac isn't going anywhere.
- CamperBob 16y ago
  Spinning it off into its own company might actually make a lot of sense. Anyone who doesn't think there's a huge, morale-killing war brewing inside Apple between the old-guard Mac cult and the young iOS Turks hasn't spent time around any large companies.
  - dreyfiz 16y ago
    Apple isn't your typical BigCo though. Your predictions about the existence of bureaucratic infighting and turf politics ignore Apple's nature. First, Apple is run more like an enormous startup. Second, iOS and OS X share a LOT of engineers. You are arguing that Apple's engineers are at war with themselves. Third, Steve wouldn't stand for it.
    - commandar 16y ago
      >First, Apple is run more like an enormous startup. So? There were turf-wars and in-fighting between product teams when Apple actually was a startup. >Third, Steve wouldn't stand for it. Most accounts I've heard are that Steve was a driving force in that early in-fighting. Of course, he's 25 years older and has probably matured some, but I don't know that I agree with the assessment that he wouldn't tolerate it.

Luyt 16y ago

Well, let me upvoted you for a change ;-) But what makes you think the Macintosh line will be abandoned by Apple? Mere aversion to product diversification? They discontinued the Xserve ("nobody buys the things"), but I have the impression that MacBooks and iMacs are selling quite well.

CamperBob 16y ago
I think it'll eventually make sense for them to focus on non-computer products because those are the ones that are selling insanely well. The local Apple stores are so full of customers and browsers that I'm surprised they haven't had problems with the fire marshal, and it isn't because people are mobbing the Mac displays. Computers, even Macs, are heavy on support costs and light on profit margins. A common argument is "Well, what do you think people are using to develop for all those iPhones, iPods, and iPads?" The answer to that one is, "What do you think people are using to develop for XBox 360s and PS3s?" It's true that you need a Mac to write iOS apps, but that's an arbitrary corporate policy, and not an inherent requirement.
- smiler 16y ago
  They do have problems with customer numbers in stores and a fire limits. At my closest apple store on a saturday there is often a queue to get into the store with security controlling the numbers. It is one of the small store designs though

1337p337 16y ago

I think it's a valid prediction, but I don't think they'd accept programmers for Apple products using non-Apple products; I don't know what they'd do. But their servers are all (I hear) XServes, and they basically eat their own dog-food, so I'd expect a follow-up of some sort. Without MacBook Pros, I don't know how they'd develop new versions of iOS. Systems coding on iPads? Would they actually use Linux? Neither seems likely, but I wouldn't put it past them to beef up iOS to the point that their devs are using it, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if their new server line were to be based on 16-core ARMs running some form of iOS.

CamperBob 16y ago
I think it's a valid prediction, but I don't think they'd accept programmers for Apple products using non-Apple products; I don't know what they'd do. Sony doesn't mind people using PCs to develop for the PS3, and game development is murderously complex compared to anything developed for iOS either inside or outside Apple. But their servers are all (I hear) XServes, and they basically eat their own dog-food, so I'd expect a follow-up of some sort. You could be right but if there's a case for Apple to be in the server business, I sure don't see it.

neild 16y ago

Macs accounted for 27% of Apple's net sales in FY '10. Mac sales were up 26% over the previous year. In comparison, iPods accounted for 13% of net sales and, and grew only 2% over the previous year. Why, precisely, do you expect Apple to just throw away 25% of their business?

CamperBob 16y ago
Think of it this way. Imagine that Apple just came out of nowhere and released the iPhone, iPad, and iPod line. Do you think their next move would be to launch a line of proprietary computers? If you pitched that idea to Jobs, you'd probably be looking for work the next day. It would be that dumb.
- kiiski 16y ago
  Maybe or maybe not, but that doesn't matter. They already sell computers and have lots of customers who want to buy them. I don't know much about business, but I would still have to say that it sounds just stupid to suddenly stop selling them.
- jonknee 16y ago
  What would they write the iOS apps with? Mac OS X is critical to all of Apple's products.
  - CamperBob 16y ago
    See my other point. Does Sony have to build a line of proprietary PCs so that people can develop for the PS3?
    - blasdel 16y ago
      Of course they do, the most recent one is called the "PlayStation 3 Reference Tool", and costs about $10k to a qualified developer.
      - 16y ago

loewenskind 16y ago

You keep getting downvoted because it's unsubstantiated nonsense that defies logical expectations. Why would Mac kill their own development platform? Further, look Google as they thrash around desperate to diversify their revenue stream. Do you think it's sensible for Mac to go the opposite direction and pile all their eggs in one basket? Not to mention all the effort that went into creating this new unibody form factor. Should they just throw away all the resources they've put into doing that?

zppx 16y ago
Well, there was an effort in developing the Xserve line as well, apparently it was no problem for Apple to throw the entire Xserve effort in the trash bin. I think Apple will put less emphasis on the Mac in the next years, simplifying the line and reducing the products in the market, not so fast as he wishes, and this will be a trend in the entire industry, not only Apple. But that's my opinion and not a detailed analysis.
- pillsy 16y ago
  They ditched the XServe because people just weren't buying them in any noticeable quantities. Apple sells a lot more Macs now then back when Macs were pretty all Apple made, so why would they decide to leave all that money on the table?
  - matwood 16y ago
    It's a chicken and the egg thing. People weren't buying them because they were not competitive with other rack servers anymore. By using your logic Apple could just not update the MacPro for a few years and then pull line because 'people weren't buying them.' Apple created the people not buying them situation though.
  - Tamerlin 16y ago
    I'm actually a little surprised that they took this long to make the decision to kill off the XServe. Back during the G5 crash-and-burn they stopped publishing separate XServe sales data, merging it into a collective "G5" sales bin, presumably to hide how drastically and quickly G5 sales tailed off after the initial surge of sales, followed by a lot of disappointment when their customers realized that their performance wasn't anywhere near where Apple claimed that it was.

aepstein 16y ago

And how do you expect iOS devs to create their mobile apps?

CamperBob 16y ago
How does Sony expect PS3 devs to create their games? Even though you can't plug a couple of monitors and a keyboard into a PS3 and run emacs and GCC on them, there are still plenty of "apps" for game consoles.

dreyfiz 16y ago

At the Back to the Mac event, Tim Cook pointed out that Apple's Mac business, if spun off into its own company, would be #110 on the Fortune 500. The Mac isn't going anywhere.

CamperBob 16y ago
Spinning it off into its own company might actually make a lot of sense. Anyone who doesn't think there's a huge, morale-killing war brewing inside Apple between the old-guard Mac cult and the young iOS Turks hasn't spent time around any large companies.
- dreyfiz 16y ago
  Apple isn't your typical BigCo though. Your predictions about the existence of bureaucratic infighting and turf politics ignore Apple's nature. First, Apple is run more like an enormous startup. Second, iOS and OS X share a LOT of engineers. You are arguing that Apple's engineers are at war with themselves. Third, Steve wouldn't stand for it.
  - commandar 16y ago
    >First, Apple is run more like an enormous startup. So? There were turf-wars and in-fighting between product teams when Apple actually was a startup. >Third, Steve wouldn't stand for it. Most accounts I've heard are that Steve was a driving force in that early in-fighting. Of course, he's 25 years older and has probably matured some, but I don't know that I agree with the assessment that he wouldn't tolerate it.