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> gaps will be filled by natural gas until utility scale battery storage comes down in price. So emissions will actually rise, until Magic Future Tech (TM) arr

by jabl 8y ago

> gaps will be filled by natural gas until utility scale battery storage comes down in price. So emissions will actually rise, until Magic Future Tech (TM) arrives to save our bacon? Great plan. Just great. Well, if not the climate, at least the fossil industry will be happy about this paper.

belorn 8y ago
That is the same conclusions I reached. The gaps makes up such a significant portion of a year that the economical aspects of running fossil based power plants has not really changed while the overall power consumption moves towards renewable sources. A fossil based power plant will run when the renewable sources can supply the demand, dictating the cost by which ever of gas, coal and oil has cheapest combination of fuel price, investment and c02-costs.
imtringued 8y ago
We have 30GWh worth of battery production capacity annually worldwide. For the cost of a single nuclear power plant at $15 billion dollars you could buy all of this years production.
toomuchtodo 8y ago
> So emissions will actually rise, until Magic Future Tech (TM) arrives to save our bacon? Great plan. Just great. That's exactly how we arrived with solar and wind so cheap between the 70s and now. Batteries will get cheaper, as demand for them for EVs brings more manufacturing capacity online. https://electrek.co/2018/08/02/tesla-gigafactory-1-battery-production-20-gwh/ https://electrek.co/2018/08/02/tesla-gigafactory-1-battery-p... > “At the end of July, Gigafactory 1 battery production reached an annualized run rate of roughly 20 GWh, making it the highest-volume battery plant in the world by a significant margin. Consequently, Tesla currently produces more batteries in terms of kWh than all other carmakers combined.” > Panasonic recently commented that ‘production at Tesla is gaining momentum’ and they plan to add 3 battery cell production lines. It should result in an annual production rate of 35 GWh. > At 35 GWh, they would be producing at the originally announced production rate, but Tesla has since increased the planned total capacity to 105 GWh of battery cells and 150 GWh of total battery pack output.
- xupybd 8y ago
  I agree with you. That demand will drive production up and economies of scale and research will drive costs down. But I still think the article should include all the facts. The storage / peak supply side of things is very expensive at present and it seems to have been left out of the equation. I'll be super happy when renewable are end to end the cheapest options. That's going to be a great day, but I don't think we're there yet.

by jabl 8y ago

belorn 8y ago

That is the same conclusions I reached. The gaps makes up such a significant portion of a year that the economical aspects of running fossil based power plants has not really changed while the overall power consumption moves towards renewable sources. A fossil based power plant will run when the renewable sources can supply the demand, dictating the cost by which ever of gas, coal and oil has cheapest combination of fuel price, investment and c02-costs.

imtringued 8y ago

We have 30GWh worth of battery production capacity annually worldwide. For the cost of a single nuclear power plant at $15 billion dollars you could buy all of this years production.

toomuchtodo 8y ago

> So emissions will actually rise, until Magic Future Tech (TM) arrives to save our bacon? Great plan. Just great. That's exactly how we arrived with solar and wind so cheap between the 70s and now. Batteries will get cheaper, as demand for them for EVs brings more manufacturing capacity online. https://electrek.co/2018/08/02/tesla-gigafactory-1-battery-production-20-gwh/ https://electrek.co/2018/08/02/tesla-gigafactory-1-battery-p... > “At the end of July, Gigafactory 1 battery production reached an annualized run rate of roughly 20 GWh, making it the highest-volume battery plant in the world by a significant margin. Consequently, Tesla currently produces more batteries in terms of kWh than all other carmakers combined.” > Panasonic recently commented that ‘production at Tesla is gaining momentum’ and they plan to add 3 battery cell production lines. It should result in an annual production rate of 35 GWh. > At 35 GWh, they would be producing at the originally announced production rate, but Tesla has since increased the planned total capacity to 105 GWh of battery cells and 150 GWh of total battery pack output.

xupybd 8y ago
I agree with you. That demand will drive production up and economies of scale and research will drive costs down. But I still think the article should include all the facts. The storage / peak supply side of things is very expensive at present and it seems to have been left out of the equation. I'll be super happy when renewable are end to end the cheapest options. That's going to be a great day, but I don't think we're there yet.